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Everything posted by Brian_in_Leavenworth

  1. How are 2nd year Nina's different, especially in late Fall/ early Winter, considering that in the 2nd year, I assume the atmosphere is already starting in a Nina regime, as opposed to being in transition during the same time in a first year Nina, especially considering a first year Nina is often coming off of a Nino regime?
  2. Yeah we had snow starting Dec 21st. Never forget that day. Had a Christmas party with friends, and helped set it up. Was hoping we would leave the party to snow falling, and that is exactly what happened. Had snow again several times, and then had a huge dump late in the month. Pineapple express met the cold air. Had several feet of snow when it was done. Got my picture in the Bellingham Herald looking at my car after the snow collapsed the car port. Areas south got their first snow on the 26th. Victoria, one of the least snowiest places in Canada, had 26 inches with the last stor
  3. Here are a few guides. Really understanding models is not a simple topic, but hopefully these help https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/Miscellaneous/chart_comparison/chart_comparison.htm#500 https://wxornotbg.com/2016/12/20/understanding-weather-models/ https://opensnow.com/news/post/weather-forecast-models-explained http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/fall12/atmo336/lectures/sec1/info500mb_2ndpass.html
  4. Perhaps this has been posted before, but worth posting again NWS Seattle @NWSSeattle Alright everyone! Once again we are requesting something from you. We will be going through some changing precipitation types today. It would be great if you could tell us when this happens at your location and what type it is! Just remember to take your observations safely!#wawx
  5. 12 to 14 at Deception Pass? WOW. I grew up there, on Fidalgo Island (Dewey Beach area), just a couple of miles from the bridge. That is a tremendous amount of snow for that area. I don't know if I ever saw that much snow in one storm all the years that I lived there, but of course I wasn't measuring snow back then.
  6. Agree 100%. Even though I average a lot of snow here, we actually had less snow than just about everyone on this board. Which makes sense, as just about everyone averages more precip than I do, so when there is snow there, often you get more than I do. And I am 100% o.k. with that. In fact, I enjoyed seeing everyone else get a lot of snow way more than the nice little snow than we had here. Its all of your turns to get ❄. Hoping you get more.
  7. Way better than the 10:1 maps, at least in areas where the temperature is below 30. NWS is using an 18:1 ratio for our snow predictions, which is almost twice the 10:1 ratio. But the kuchera maps are probably overdoing it, especially west side.
  8. Sunday should be a much better day to drive, being in between storms. Once in awhile they close the pass for avalanche control, but usually late at night when traffic is slow. Stevens will get a lot of snow overnight and early tomorrow, but nothing out of the ordinary. Guessing it will still be compact snow by Sunday, so having proper tires/chains is strongly advised. They could also take Snoqualmie Pass and Blewett Pass if those roads look better. Worth checking on. Whenever anyone from here goes to Seattle, we almost always take Blewett/Snoqualmie instead of Steven's, a bit f
  9. We are way colder than you are and we are having 18:1 ratios at most, according to the NWS. My highs have been in the teens this week.
  10. Not a bust unless there was an actual forecast, as opposed to a bunch of colors on a model.
  11. We get a lot of Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches/Warnings. So they won't issue a warning until 24 hours or less before the event. A warning means severe weather is happening or is imminent, hence the 24 hour rule. Also, before 24 hours things can and do change. They also have to be careful when you have back to back storms. They don't want confusion when doing that. One storm at a time. When 2 storms are close, you might have an advisory for the first storm and then they might skip the watch and go into the warning for the next storm. So don't expect a wa
  12. I use the 4k WRF ensemble mean for snow forecasts for my area, and it is often spot on, way more accurate than the NWS. At least 6 times this year the WRF ensemble mean got our snowfall exactly right when the NWS was way off. Sometimes they are both in agreement, and sometimes the WRF is way off too, but a far better record than the NWS. But the WRF ensemble mean is only for certain locations, not a map of the whole area, and only goes out about 48 hours. It is also not available until sometime after the run ends. I don't know how accurate it is for other areas, but I my area is a par
  13. Still gets pretty cold in Eastern Washington. Never gets above freezing at my house. Vodka cold not there though.
  14. Do you mean highway 2, Steven's Pass? No doubt they will get a lot of snow. They do close it sometimes for avalanche control, though they try to time that to be during slow traffic times, like late at night. Probably will end up needing chains though during the heavy snow
  15. The watch is in effect now, they are just identifying for what time they are watching.
  16. I get a lot of winter storms here. They won't upgrade a watch to a warning until 24 hours or less before a storm. It must be imminent by definition.
  17. Benjamin Jurkovich @BenjaminJurkovi · 29m 1) Here is the arctic airmass currently in the Fraser Plateau of BC compared to the ones @ the onset of the Jan 2020 and Feb 2019 cold spells. The 2019 and 2020 graphics were the day of the first event. Case in point, arctic air is building sooner and deeper this go around. #wawx
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