Brian_in_Leavenworth

Just saw this. Amazing, and though there have been problems with the floods, overall its great to see this.

Since any interesting weather is 10+ days away, the operational runs are irrelevant for that time period.

Yeah, we didn't have a SSW earlier this winter and December absolutely torched for everyone! Warmest December ever! Seriously, are you sure he said 2 weeks ago that it was happening in 10 days? Lots of the experts that know more than we do have been talking about it, so he's not making it up. Maybe they're all wrong.

Today's hour 348 850's Last night's hour 360

EPS at hour 306 Last night at the same hour (318)

Last part of the EPS

It was awful. It wasnt that big of a fire as far as wildfires go. It was just in a place where the smoke naturally drained into our area, and in a place where they couldn't do much to put it out. Then we got stuck in the same weather pattern for awhile. It started around Sept 10. We got home from our European holiday on Sept 11, and was told it had just started. They had to cancel local football games. It stopped mid October. Maybe late October, but Halloween was fine. The week after Halloween we got snow and haven't seen the grass since then.

Great! I told her you are a walking encyclopedia of NW weather history.

One nice thing is you mostly avoid the often heavy traffic that Leavenworth has, and real estate should be a bit more affordable, though probably not "cheap".

BTW, I heard back from Rebecca Stevenson, and she would definitely like to pass any information you have about the 1861 winter to Larry Schick. and about the newspaper in DuPont.

Peshastin is drier, but not significantly drier. It is just 4 miles from downtown Leavenworth. I always joke that the "budding metropolis of Peshastin (as a friend calls it) is so small you can throw a rock from the "Welcome to Peshastin" sign and hit the "Thanks for visiting Peshastin, please come again". Cashmere, on the other hand, is quite a bit drier. You really notice it in the vegetation. Around Leavenworth the hills are filled with lush forests, where the hills around Cashmere are filled with dried, brown sagebrush.

You do realize it's a very extended ensemble mean. Not to be taken at face value. More important than details like that would be the overall pattern and the potential. IIRC the long term ensemble mean looked similar before the Feb 2019 event But for sure a snowy pattern for the mountain and for my side of the state

I'll let her know about the DuPont newspaper. Where could he find that?

Do you do twitter? Maybe you could get in touch with Rebecca Stevenson and she could get you in touch with Larry Schick. I always liked Larry, he seemed to love the kind of weather we do.

Just wanted to bump this for Jim. So do you know anything about that winter that could help Larry Schick? Read the article. @snow_wizard

I didn't know the GEM had weeklies. I've seen the monthly one at th monthse beginning of the month but not a weekly

Last night's long-range GEFS

Siberia is brutally cold now. If the right setup happens, there will be cold air to work with.

Jim especially will be interested in this https://mynorthwest.com/1516426/lost-clues-winter-1861-1862/

The weeklies that will come out today are an extension of this run. Will be interesting for sure.

I think it was the reason for Feb 2019 to be snowy and cold. It was a Nino year, and February in a Nino year is usually the warmest and driest relative to normal.

GEFS long ranger

He already has written about it https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/09/wildfires-are-old-normal-for-pacific.html?m=1

Moss Man doesn't get berms like that, at least not from street plowing. I do, though, and it makes getting in and out of your driveway a real challenge. The driveway gets narrower and narrower, and you can't see into the street that you are backing into. Shoveling and snowblowing becomes a challenge when you have to throw the snow over a 7-10 foot berm. And if you don't get it over, it just slides right down to where it was. So far about 100 inches of snow this winter with 3 to 5 more coming.