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Brian_in_Leavenworth

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Posts posted by Brian_in_Leavenworth

  1. 3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

    Time to pull out Cliff’s favorite. IMG_5379.thumb.jpeg.cc9333c5c0709acd3185dfdeb9cd33ee.jpeg

    Cliffs model ran yesterday showed about 9" for Leavenworth.

    Just measured.  We had exactly 9".  This model, at least the 1.33K resolution version, is spot on for here time after time.  I have been really impressed with it, so much that I ignore all other forecasts.  Of course it only goes out 72 hours, but any snow maps shouldn't go out any further anyway.

     

    • Like 4
    • Excited 1
  2. 5 minutes ago, Jean Ralphios Ghost said:

    I've been watching all day on the Leavenworth live cams!  I had figured seeing it snow in Leavenworth might be my only shot at seeing snow this year with el nino!   Hoping this week will change that, but it's been fun to watch it snow there in the meantime.  :)

    Hope you get snow!

    • Like 1
  3. 16 minutes ago, North_County said:

    Obviously Mossman is always going to get his. But if we're talking about north of Everett in general not deserving snow, I'd like to point out how easy it is to forget how frequently Whatcom County and the Fraser Valley get skunked in the snow department while the rest of the region is scoring. Too often I'm dealing with barely a dusting of fine snow particles and a bitterly-cold dry NE wind, just so that I can be the sacrifice that allows enough cold air to push into Puget Sound and bury Seattle in powder.

    I'm not complaining, mind you. Weather has absolutely nothing to do with why I live where I live. But it's been a few years since I've had a snowfall worth remembering. Which is a bit at odds with the idea that the north always scores.

    I lived in Bellingham for several decades.  And we did often get skunked in that situation.  But Bellingham at least had that magical White Christmas a couple of years ago.  Wish I could have experienced that when I lived there.

    • Like 1
  4. 10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

    Someone on here will be getting nuked this weekend…But who will that someone be…😲

    Shows my location getting 15"+.  In addition to the 10 inches or so today/tonight.  And ridiculous amounts over the next 10 days.  Probably won't be that much, but we will have the cold air and the shown pattern is perfect for heavy snow. Especially with high qpf ratios due to the really cold air.

    Maybe similar to the 30-40" we got in 24 hours almost exactly 2 years ago.  Probably won't happen, actually that snow was very hard to deal with even for us, so I don't want that much.

    Hope you get a huge snowfall!

    • Like 4
  5. 3 minutes ago, Parrot said:

    That's the one. No one has posted it here yet bc the event is not in range. But its pretty much single-handedly been responsible for making Cliff Mass look like a fool these last few years

    For me it is BY FAR the most accurate model.  Maybe it's because it's the mountains. Don't know about other locations.  And maybe because precip type is not usually the question here as it is over on the west side.

    2 years ago this week NWS forecasted 18 inches of snow, this model forecasted more than 36".  We got more than 36".  Every big storm we've had this year and almost all we had last year were accurately forecasted by this model.  

  6. 4 minutes ago, Parrot said:

    WRF has been awful for the last few events in Puget Sound though. Seems like it just takes the broad global solutions and irons out the microclimates but doesn't actually have any predictive power

    Are you talking about the 1.33k resolution model?    Nobody ever posts the one I use.  The one people post is the one that goes out 240 hours. 

    • Like 1
  7. 6 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

    Is there any higher resolution model you like to use for up here as the event draws near? Terrain bleed makes all these snow maps useless obviously but I feel like even trying to evaluate precip+temps is difficult given the sponge-squeezing Rattlesnake does. Best I’ve pieced together is to look at wind direction, how the precip approaches and temps and then compare that to previous events? 

    For me in Leavenworth, I use the UW WRF 1.33km map.  I have found so often it is extremely accurate at this time range.  Nothing is 100%, but this is really good.

    https://a.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/load.cgi?images_d4/ww_snowacc.72.0000.gif

    image.png

    • Like 4
    • Facepalm 1
  8. 8 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

    I’m curious in Leavenworth do people put covers on their crawlspace vents? Is that even worth it during cold snaps. 

    That's a good question, and I hadn't really paid attention to that.  And do you mean like the foundation vents?  Probably would be good to not only for cold but to keep pests out.

    I'm not familiar with foundation vents.  Just reading a bit now it seems like they are no longer recommended since they actually promote moisture buildup instead of prevent it, so probably best to leave them closed year round.  Maybe newer houses don't have them anymore?  I will check my house tomorrow, though I suspect my pest control company would have done that.

    Our humidity levels are low most of the year except during winter when you would want them closed anyway.

  9. 4 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

    No idea on schools. 

    If you can get some cheap plastic cake pans/jello molds from the dollar store, you can put food coloring and water in them and put them outside to freeze in fun shapes. Kids like to check on them and then watch them melt later (unless that will make your kid sad. Some might get that way.) 

     

    You could get pine cones and roll them in peanut butter and bird seed and hang them out for the birds if you're not concerned about other critters (rats, etc.) getting them. 

     

    As far as keeping pipes warm beyond what everyone else has said, think about where any exterior walls are that have plumbing in them. Kitchen sink by a window? Toilet? Drip the sink, open the cabinet doors to allow air flow, and maybe even put a fan in those rooms to circulate/direct heat to the pipes. You also want to make sure your windows are covered with curtains when it's really cold. If you don't have good curtains, you can use blankets and pin them up there. However, you do want to make sure you get airflow to the windows part of the time or you cab get condensation and mold/mildew on the windowsill. So close at night, open during the day for at least a little while to get air circulation. 

     

    One last thing. Make sure you know how to shut off the water to your house and have a tool that can do it. If you don't have a whole house shut off on your garage, figure out how to shut it off at the meter. There's a tool that let's you do it. I don't know about wells and we'll houses and pumps if you're not on city water, but I bet @SilverFallsAndrew and others would have some advice.

     

    Hope your wife is recovering well!

    Make sure when you drip water that you use the sink furthest from the hot water tank.  Actually good to drop from several sinks but a must to use the furthest one.  And turn the faucet to cold, that's the water you want moving.

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