Brian_in_Leavenworth

If and when there is undercutting, that isn't always a bad thing. It can lead to really big snowstorms. So much of that depends on where the systems go. North of the lows stay snow, and maybe a lot of it. South of course would be warmer I believe December 2008 had undercutting systems, as well as late December 1996. January 2011 was supposed to be an epic snowstorm, but the system went too far North.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1742985101896720426?t=cSk6ceeMtaw5uAB8BL4APg&s=19

Obviously snow totals not accurate at this range as has been mentioned, but here goes

Stronger signal for a block then in the last few GEFS runs

Everyone needs to read this. I just pointed out that tonights run is colder then the one everyone went crazy about last night, but you would think it was way warmer based on some reactions. And snow totals mean nothing at this point.

Interesting that everyone went crazy over last nights 0z, but tonight's 0z is definitely colder than last night's run, but people think we're trending way worse.

The 0Z GFS is about the same as last night's 0Z temp wise a week from now. Not as cold as 12Z, maybe delayed like Jesse said.

That is password protected. Not a joke, there is a Brazilian Atmospheric Model, but I can't find it anywhere publicly accessible.

He's saying that we can't tell if it's the hottest year in the last however many of thousands of years since we obviously didn't have thermometers way back when. And thermometers have changed a lot, so it isn't as simple as looking at numbers. There are also factors in the past, like time of day issues. Today's thermometers take temps 24 hours a day, every minute. Back then it was whenever someone went out and looked, which may not have been at the hottest time of day (or the coldest). And of course we use satellites now, which obviously weren't used in the past. UHI is a factor today, not as much back then. The issue is more complicated than most people realize.

I once fired a pest control company because all they did was set traps. I could have done that! The one I hired did a thorough inspection, closed and sealed every little gap that mice could get through, and we haven't had one since. Ours were getting in largely through the basement, where they can dig holes (the crawl space doesn't have a floor), and they used the insulation to nest. Even had a small depression in the garage where the furnace say and it was enough for them to get through. No danger of the furnace crashing down, but they sealed that gap too. Don't settle for a company that just puts down traps.

My point and click forecast has one night with a chance of rain or snow and a low around 20 after a daytime high of 31

Yup, Larry's Long Ranger.

We live in Leavenworth. Wenatchee and East Wenatchee are across the river from each other and in different counties. Wenatchee is definitely way drier than we are up here. Mission Ridge skiing if you are into that is close by. Housing is hard there just like it is anywhere else There are some nearby communities like Malaga that are options.

Don't forget about the Kunyu model. And it has a legacy version, how that's possible I don't know. Kunyu.dev

Don't know if anyone posted this, got it from Cliffs blog, but here is the monthly forecast for January from the ECMWF

No, a setback but not a huge step back. THIS would be a huge step back (old run, don't worry). By the way this happens every time, there is a bit of a step back and some people panic. And yes often the whole thing busts, but often things are fine.

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_extended/load.cgi?images_d2/ww_snowacc.240.0000.gif Their 1 1/3 K resolution run that goes out about 72 hours has been remarkably accurate for snow in my area. Still too early for that though.

That's still pretty cold though. And so much better than 24 hours ago.

Yesterday's early model runs to today's

But that shows warm temps for just about all the US and Canada.

That was before the better ensembles from last night, so it will be interesting to see the one today.

EPS 12z vs 0z actually not quite the same hour, as I copied the wrong hour, but still big improvement

And here is the Kunyu "legacy". Don't ask, I don't know

Kunyu model. No joke BTW.