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Brian_in_Leavenworth

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Posts posted by Brian_in_Leavenworth

  1. January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

    in West of the Rockies

    Posted

    If and when there is undercutting, that isn't always a bad thing. It can lead to really big snowstorms.  So much of that depends on where the systems go.  North of the lows stay snow, and maybe a lot of it. South of course would be warmer

    I believe December 2008 had undercutting systems, as well as late December 1996.  January 2011 was supposed to be an epic snowstorm, but the system went too far North.

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    January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

    in West of the Rockies

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

    Here is what happens.

    People don't totally understand what is happening with these model runs. They are here for the vibes (which is GREAT!), they see something like a +3 degree on the run to run temp change and they freak out. Instead of being like "is that a big deal?" and maybe showing they don't fully follow this stuff they say things like "This sucks!" or "This is over!" or "At least XYZ model was good!" etc. So that others will come and say "No, this was a great run" and lift their spirits.

    The problem is, we have over 200 people lurking on these message boards and a VAST majority have no clue what most of the complicated jargon means and are looking to read some legitimate discourse and discussion about the newest models. But all they get are people being like "well that sucked!" (when it didn't) and they don't really know what is going on.

    The GFS was great. No major issues, for some folks it was a little better for snow, it seemed a little more active, but it was a little warmer for mid-week next week. A very normal fluctuation that doesn't foretell any problems.

    Remember, worrying about 2-3 degrees or 2-3 inches is silly. Those are tiny details that should be ignored until literally the day before.

     

    Everyone needs to read this.  I just pointed out that tonights run is colder then the one everyone went crazy about last night, but you would think it was way warmer based on some reactions.

    And snow totals mean nothing at this point.

    • Like 13

  9. January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

    in West of the Rockies

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

    Somewhat off topic, but get a load of this recent quote from cliff mass.  How he's still on UW's payroll is beyond me.

    So they didn't have thermometers back in 1950, Cliff?

    He's saying that we can't tell if it's the hottest year in the last however many of thousands of years since we obviously didn't have thermometers way back when.  And thermometers have changed a lot, so it isn't as simple as looking at numbers.  There are also factors in the past, like time of day issues.  Today's thermometers take temps 24 hours a day, every minute. Back then it was whenever someone went out and looked, which may not have been at the hottest time of day (or the coldest).  And of course we use satellites now, which obviously weren't used in the past.  UHI is a factor today, not as much back then.  

    The issue is more complicated than most people realize.  

      

    • Like 4

  10. January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

    in West of the Rockies

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

    You're too kind to check. I thought it was an okay deal, but I'm not versed at all in the pest control sphere lol

    2 years is a long time, but...gotta look out for the health of my kids and wife, and this is a problem that seems to be spiraling out of my ability to fix.

    I once fired a pest control company because all they did was set traps.  I could have done that!  The one I hired did a thorough inspection, closed and sealed every little gap that mice could get through, and we haven't had one since.  Ours were getting in largely through the basement, where they can dig holes (the crawl space doesn't have a floor), and they used the insulation to nest.  Even had a small depression in the garage where the furnace say and it was enough for them to get through.  No danger of the furnace crashing down, but they sealed that gap too.

    Don't settle for a company that just puts down traps.

    • Like 2

  11. January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

    in West of the Rockies

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

    Nice point and click forecast here.

    Tonight
    A 20 percent chance of snow after 11pm. Patchy freezing fog. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Light and variable wind.
    Thursday
    A 40 percent chance of snow. Areas of freezing fog before 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
    Thursday Night
    Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
    Friday
    Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
    Friday Night
    A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. South wind 3 to 5 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
    Saturday
    A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 30. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
    Saturday Night
    Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
    Sunday
    Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 27.
    Sunday Night
    A chance of snow before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.
    Monday
    A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 25.
    Monday Night
    Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.
    Tuesday
    Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 29.
    Tuesday Night
    Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 13.
    Wednesday
    Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 18.

    My point and click forecast has one night with a chance of rain or snow and a low around 20 after a daytime high of 31

    • Shivering 1

  13. January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

    in West of the Rockies

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

    My partner and I will be putting our house up in Kent later this month. He has a job opportunity over in Wenatchee, so we’ll be moving over there ASAP and renting for a while. I’m excited for a change and better weather for sure. Anybody on this forum live around that area? 

    We live in Leavenworth.  Wenatchee and East Wenatchee are across the river from each other and in different counties.  Wenatchee is definitely way drier than we are up here.  Mission Ridge skiing if you are into that is close by.  Housing is hard there just like it is anywhere else  There are some nearby communities like Malaga that are options.  

    • Like 2

  16. January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

    in West of the Rockies

    Posted · Edited by Brian_in_Leavenworth

    18 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

    It's really a huge step back, very concerning

    No, a setback but not a huge step back.  THIS would be a huge step back (old run, don't worry).  By the way this happens every time, there is a bit of a step back and some people panic.  And yes often the whole thing busts, but often things are fine.

    image.png

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