Brian_in_Leavenworth

Many if not all up here already are, but obviously need more.

Truth. But it is interesting how both the GDPS and the GFS suddenly went arctic after being rather pedestrian for several runs.

Although I love living here, sometimes I feel like I would trade some of the snow for a colder climate than here with snow on the ground for a longer time. We generally have snow on the ground for about 3 months, but we usually get a bit of rain as well as all the snow. There are things to be said for a bigger community. We have to drive down to Wenatchee for any real shopping, except groceries. At least we have lots of restaurants. And if I was single, a bigger town might also be more appealing. Are you seriously thinking about Bozeman? I'm glad I moved here, which was my goal for awhile, but I know for many moving isn't as easy as it sounds.

Lots of places get a lot of snow without moving that far away. Though Montana is pretty great. And if you want the extreme cold, Bozeman would be hard to beat.

I'm beyond the Pepto. Don't know what to call those colors. Probably won't verify, but it looks good for me for decent snow at least.

It is always better for improvements in the short run, but even at day 10 you can see the Kona low and the retrogression taking shape.

This. Injury was just bad luck. They didn't kneel in this EXACT same situation on 3rd down against Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship Game, and he ran it for a 1st down.

Let's hope it doesn't turn to this:

Here's another classic, created by Rob (Gradient Keeper).

From last night's extended range GEFS:

EDITED: Agree.

The weeklies that we will see tomorrow is the EPS from this run extended to 46 days

Valdez averages 300" of snow every year, despite not being bitterly cold. Never been, but the pictures of the Sound and the mountains look gorgeous.

No they're not. Spire is based on their satellite data and is a separate company. I'm not even sure their forecasts are AI. They may cooperate with ECMWF, but aren't the same. Spire just started their model about a month ago. https://spacewatch.global/2023/11/spire-global-launches-high-resolution-weather-forecast/

Spire and graohcast are not the same model. Graohcast is a Google thing and Spire is a different company

Not sure why anyone would take any of the operational models at face value beyond about 5 days or so. The pro mets forecasting for longer ranges and the CPC use ensembles, not the operationals.

The big bust in 1983 was the White Christmas forecast bust. I'm still bitter about it 40 years later. I was in high school and living in Anacortes. The cold air was in place, a wet system was coming in. The Seattle P-I has a big headline about having a white Christmas. The Seahawks won a playoff game that day, Winter Storm Warnings were issued for 6 to 8 inches of snow by Christmas morning. All was right with the world. Everyone has gone to bed and I heard a pitter patter. I was old enough to know it wasn't Santas reindeer. It was rain. I'm guessing the storm took a more northerly track and the low went to our North and brought warm air.

Scandinavia is getting the bitter cold. Temps as cold as 30C below normal.

The EPS shows that ridge disappearing after a few days and then it looks like the jetstream is aimed toward the PNW. Looks like at face value a good mountain snow pattern.

Makes for a lot of snow for me. And I assume the mountains too. Might end up with normal snowfall for both December and January, which I wouldn't have expected this winter.

Nobody's mentioned the weeklies, so here are some maps. Notice the colder temps anomalies go all the way to the end of the 46 day period. Doesn't look arctic but maybe good for the mountains. Hopefully comes with decent precipitation. Also note that each image in this map is a running 5 day average Here's the PNA