Brian_in_Leavenworth

"The overall week-2 forecast has continued to grow cooler relative to prior forecasts. Above-normal temperatures remain favored across the Great Lakes and the Northeast. But parts of the Pacific Northwest are now favored to see below-normal temperatures during week-2. Statistical guidance and short-term biased corrected tools are significantly colder relative to dynamical reforecast tools. There is therefore quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the temperature forecast for the period"

Yesterday's ensemble runs that this is based off of shows the jetstream aimed at the NW. Nothing remarkable but not dry at all.

And despite overall warm temps in December, we have had more than 30 inches this month. Much has melted, so the snow cover is lower than normal.

Normal temps are enough for me. Colder is nice too, but we don't need colder anomalies until late January, and even then only a couple of degrees below normal. We average 94" of snow every year

Interesting that the CPC has a different outlook, at least for week 2.

4.5" of snow yesterday afternoon and overnight. Not bad, good to see snow on the ground again. Actually we are over 30 inches for the month, which is pretty close to normal.

This is the current pattern. This is what the EPS shows in week 2. Not arctic, but not the current pattern either.

White Christmas is saved in Leavenworth. Expecting 4-6" during the day and evening tomorrow. Actually we've had close to normal snowfall for December as of the 24th. Two storms over a foot each are what had made December snowfall close to normal, plus a couple of smaller storms and what's coming tomorrow will make it normal. However, the warm temps have melted most of it, so it seems as if snowfall is below normal. Snowcover is for sure below normal though. Will be nice to see snowfall during Christmas day. About the 3rd Christmas in a row with snow falling during the day. Mostly in the afternoon, but it's still nice.

In Leavenworth there is a display Downtown about forest fires. It mentions how the early settlers easily traversed through the forests because the trees were more spread apart and there wasn't a lot of dense underbrush. Then came decades of putting out every fire. In 1994, there was several major fires around Leavenworth, the entire town was evacuated, and fire crews from all around the nation came to help, thousands of firefighters. When it was done, they found a tree that had burned, and the tree rings showed that it had survived fires about every 10 years, until the late 1800's, then there was no fire for over 100 years until 1994. By then there were so many trees and dense underbrush that the fire was extremely hot, and it could not survive. The fires that it had survived previously were less intensive, encountered fewer trees and less underbrush, and the tree easily survived. The fire effectively reduced the underbrush and got rid of dead and dying trees. That is what a healthy forest us supposed to look like.

Canadian as well, from last night

That's a good option.

This is how crowded it can get

Obligatory Leavenworth live snow cam. We're supposed to get 7-12 inches. I have to watch too as I'm in the Bavarian Alps. BTW 2 other live cams in Leavenworth if you want a different view

That sounds like a typical progression. Surgery is if all else fails, or it's an emergency. And I am guessing this would be the last cortisone injection. Keep us up to date!

Good news is there will be more snow in the mountains this weekend and Leavenworth and large parts of Eastern Washington are also supposed to get snow. Southern third of Eastern Washington probably wont, save for the hills. May not last long, but it's something. How's your back doing?

The cams will hopefully be back up, it's malfunctioning and not meant to be permanently set to private. Happens once in a while. Too bad because it's snowing hard now. It will turn to rain of course later on, but the more snow we get maybe the foot we got Friday/Saturday and what we get today may survive the rain. Certainly we will lose a lot though. But maybe more snow next weekend when I'm in Europe. Would be nice to come home to snow cover. 20231202_083102.mp4

I have found for here at least that the WRF and the 1 1/2 version especially are quite good with snow amounts. Also the WRF ensemble mean is really good too. I often use that instead of the NWS forecast. NWS did say that some models were showing 2" and others 20". Differences are when it turns over to rain. So a real forecast dilemma. Well see what the final totals are.

Just about 10" on the ground. 2-3 from the day yesterday and the rest from overnight. Still snowing.

There has been talk about doing just that, and they've done surveys. Getting rid of the curb by raising the road to curb level and making it more aesthetically pleasing will hopefully happen. And also talk about moving the gazebo to be more in the street so it's more centered and people could gather all around instead of just in front. That would also give more room for sledders on the hill. But bureaucracy is pretty slow unfortunately.

Guessing wet grounds and maybe trees that still have leaves can cause more problems than otherwise. Another example is that our criteria here in Leavenworth for WSW's and WWA's is often lowered for the first winter storm of the year, so the context can alter their criteria a bit. Just a guess though .