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Brian_in_Leavenworth

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Everything posted by Brian_in_Leavenworth

  1. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    Improvements in the longer range GFS. At least it doesn't show ridging over us the entire time. Too bad it is the longer range, but its a start toward a more active pattern, hopefully. Looks like all the models are starting to show ridging way up north in Alaska/Northern Canada with maybe backdoor cold and overall a bit more active pattern for us.
  2. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    DJ meant this one
  3. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    Though not arctic, day 10 on the Euro shows decently cool temps in Eastrrn WA and cold temps in BC. First time in the last few days that it has shown temps this cool. If course it didnt go out that far in previous runs.
  4. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    It seems like both the Euro and the Canadian were similar to their previous runs, except the transition to westerlies was delayed a day or so. But that Euro does look interesting beyond just the westerlies showing up.
  5. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    I get using the analogs for a predicted upcoming pattern, like the 6-10 or 8-14 day range, but to use it to say "that analog from 19xx was 3 weeks before a great arctic outbreak, so that means we may get a repeat" is totally meaningless IMO.
  6. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    The thing I always have thought about the analogs is that, even if what is shows was EXACTLY the way it was in, say, December 1949, I doubt that the weather would play out exactly like it would through January 1950. So I really don't take much stock in them. Yes, things like ENSO and other indices can tell us the likelihood of how a winter will play out, but sometimes I see an analog on the CPC of something from 1949, and a few people will get excited because of January 1950. Or some other analog from a time that ended up being good several weeks later. I really doubt there has ever been two winters that played out pretty much the same from mid November through early March.
  7. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    Thanks for sharing that. I will also check twitter, sometimes Ventrice or Noll tweet about it.
  8. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    What kind of a pattern is it showing before then?
  9. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    Well put. Without irrigation, they can't grow anything. And it is not just the orchardists and farmers, many people get irrigation water for their lawns, their fruit trees in their yards, etc. And, contrary to what many people think, the real reason why big dams like the Grand Coulee were built is for irrigation, not hydro electricity, though of course that is a welcome byproduct of the dams that give us the cheapest electricity in the U.S.
  10. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    Yes, it looks very much like last nights Euro and the EPS. WAY different than the GFS.
  11. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    Ensemble mean is also ridgy too.
  12. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    My wife, who is from Toronto, says the exact same thing. Even at our hottest, you can at least go outside for awhile, and it is still fairly comfortable in the shade. In more humid areas, it is like stepping into a sauna with all your clothes on. And I still remember being in Florida a few years ago, and the first morning we were there, temps were still in the mid 70's, and any wet towels that you hung out overnight were still damp.
  13. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    The only difference that I see is that the EPS is a bit quicker, consistent with the timing of previous EPS runs.
  14. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    It does seem like the EPS has been much more consistent than the operational. And it has been consistent with the timing of that too.
  15. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    Light snow here, as expected. They are calling for 1-2 inches, which seems about right. Pretty small snow for us, but nice to look at.
  16. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    It has been a little inconsistent in the 8-10 day range the last few runs. And definitely different not only from the 12Zz and the recent EPS but also the GFS and Canadian and their ensembles. Unless it is picking up on something new before the others.
  17. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    Tonights QPF on the Euro: Spreads further into North Central WA, just a bit more precip there, and a tiny bit less elsewhere. Minor differences in the overall scheme of things. The 12Z Euro from today:
  18. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    Canadian looking very similar to the Euro at about the same hour. Euro at 12Z Sunday morning (Dec. 7) Canadian at the same time
  19. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    Not disagreeing with you at all. It was such a blanket statement that Mark probably didnt want interpreted as a forecast. And it is true, the first cold snap could be the coldest one, or it could just be the first of many. And you can say that every year without it meaning anything.
  20. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    The thing is you could say that every winter the first time a mini cold snap comes. Mark isn't usually one to give winter predictions anyway.
  21. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    Here is the EPS hour 312, courtesy of Ventrice. Looks wet. Wondering what it showed after that. It looks to be at least a bit different than what it had been showing.
  22. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    It worked for me. I asked the computer to use Windows Media Player, and it worked. Hoping to see that kind of snow soon, thanks for showing this.
  23. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    I think the PNW was under a death ridge that Thanksgiving. I do remember the weather and wishing I could go through a storm like that. As long as I were at home.
  24. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    Could be worse. You could meet a shower curtain ring salesman.
  25. Brian_in_Leavenworth
    Yeah, more like the previous couple of EPS's. One of the few times that the EPS looks a fair amount different than the operational. Not 180 degrees difference, but a bit more noticeable than usual.
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