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Everything posted by Brian_in_Leavenworth
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December 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to TigerWoodsLibido's topic in West of the Rockies
We're going to get snow here in Leavenworth at least for awhile. How much? Certainly difficult to forecast. Good discussion from Spokane NWS. ".I am not sold on the colder air in the Leavenworth region being scrubbed out rapidly tonight. This makes a huge difference in snow totals for Locations such as Leavenworth. The National blend only has 2 inches while the UW-WRF ensembles up to 20" for Leavenworth. Needless to say, confidence is very low for them. The snow ratios would be below 10:1 which would mean very wet and heavy snow for Leavenworth." -
November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
Thanks! Yeah a bit different this year. Not too worried but will need to always be aware. Going to Christmas Markets and they are definitely a potential target. -
November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
Wasn't expecting to see snow this morning, Friday is supposed to be a snow day. It was only about an inch but was nice to drive around in. Expecting several inches Friday and Friday night, and we'll see when it turns to rain. All the tourists in town for the weekend, especially Saturday, will be disappointed if its pouring down rain. Then I go to Europe for 10 days and maybe we'll have snow back by then. -
November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
IF I'm reading that right, that looks like a lot of snow for our mountains. Strong jet, but not the warm pineapple express, so snow levels would be at normal levels. -
November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
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November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
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November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
Hope so. Haven't seen any snow this year yet. Would be nice to see at least a few inches. Passes may get dumped on this weekend. -
November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
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November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
And then the ridge builds after that. Ridge also is shown in the ensembles. Europe will be colder and snowier than normal for the next 2 weeks, so that should bold well for our trip there in early December. -
November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
Apart from dangerous weather, inversions are the worst. Who cares about fake cold? If it's not snowing or stormy, at least be sunny. We live in a beautiful part of the world, I'd like to see it instead of fog. -
November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
I did read that it was far behind the ensembles though, especially the EPS. And in the mid to long range, the ensembles are more important. And it's also since its a low resolution, it won't be useful in short term forecasts and precip totals, etc. But still, this is only going to get better and better. -
November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
When is this board not in a panic mode? Even when it's snowing there is always someone panicking because it hasn't started at their house.- 5039 replies
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November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
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November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
Some tweets from Maue. I know some don't like him, and that's fine, but he is a wealth of information regardless of how you might feel about him So Graphcast did real well in the 5 day range, but the EPS was far better in the 10 day range. But note another AI system being developed that may be better than EPS -
November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
FYI the Euro is having data problems and it looks like its not being run. Guessing we're not missing anything. -
November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
That was an extension of last nights 0Z run, which in the 15 day period was way better than the 12Z run today. It would be interesting to see what the weeklies run from tonight's 0Z run shows, though I think only WXBell subscribers have access to. -
November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
The newer artificial disc's are the next generation ones and are much longer lasting than the first generation ones. They often didn't last more than 10 years and would have to be taken out and a fusion procedure would be done. My fusion was minimally invasive, 4 small incisions that healed quickly. And I spent only 1 night in the hospital. It's going through the muscles that causes a lot of discomfort and stiffness. If I had the option of an artificial disc, I would have done that. And probably I could have had that done if I had more time to ask other surgeons, but due to my dropfoot, I didn't have time to waste. Not an easy choice, and I guess if the simpler surgery doesn't work, the artificial disc would be an alternative. My concern with your first option would be that, even if you didn't feel pain, that you would still have numbness because the nerve is still being compressed. That's the question I would ask of my surgeon. And of course 2nd opinions are important too. -
November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
People around here act shocked when an advertised arctic blast at day 10 or so doesn't materialize. We should know better. We're like Charlie Brown expecting Lucy to let him kick the football. Yes it does happen sometimes, and it may still, maybe just one of those 24 hour hiccups that happen in the models before an actual arctic blast does happen. Or maybe one of those delayed but not denied situations. But we've seen this so many times that I'm SMH wondering why people are so surprised. We've seen the rug pulled out at 2-3 days let alone 7 days. There are hardly ever slam dunks, or "no questions about it" this far out. -
November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
It is certainly an interesting and dangerous situation, thanks for posting the picture. And I'm following it closely too. But I just wanted to remind people that a massive climate changing eruption isn't in the cards. -
November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
Just posted how this certainly wont be a climate changing massive explosion. -
November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
For those expectations a huge, climate changing eruption from Iceland, think again. Wont happen. I've been following Iceland volcanic activity for years, and this activity won't end up with a massive explosion. First, it's the wrong kind of magma. This is the kind of magma that produces effusive, fissure eruptions like the last 3 eruptions have since 2021 in the same region. There is a decreasing chance that the eruption could start offshore, where the sudden heating of water from magma interaction could produce some (relatively) small explosions. It could be devastating for that area, but nothing that would produce a massive eruption. At the very most a VEI 2, and even that is very unlikely. For official information from actual vulcanologists that know this area, here is the official web site with the latest information. https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/a-seismic-swarm-started-north-of-grindavik-last-night Though there is some good info on X and YouTube, there is also a lot of crap from doomsday people who know nothing about volcanoes and just like to get a lot of clicks.- 5039 replies
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November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
By the way, don't bother to look at the GEFS. -
November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
Hows the numbness? Have they Said what kind if surgery? -
November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
Hows the numbness? Have they Saud what kind if surgery? -
November 2023 Weather in the PNW
Brian_in_Leavenworth replied to Tyler Mode's topic in West of the Rockies
Hang in there. We're all pulling for you. And sorry you're going through that.