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Brian_in_Leavenworth

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Everything posted by Brian_in_Leavenworth

  1. That blob seems to come around every summer, and often goes away once the fall storms stir things up. Of course it did not go away the one winter a few years ago, but it is still too early to be concerned about.
  2. I have heard that the GEFS is still based on the GFSv14 model, and won't be based on FV3 until next year. Can anyone confirm that?
  3. Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 3h3 hours agoMoreFor the first time in months, the ENSO3.4 index dipped down into negative territory. This comes weeks following the emergence of an upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which pushed into the far eastern Pacific basin. Note: oceanic kelvin wave activity to continue through Fall 2019.
  4. Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue Jun 10MoreWeather model upgrade week: While the "official" FV3-GFS upgrade is not until Wednesday, I'm flipping the switch starting with 12z today @weathermodels_ ECMWF model upgrades Tuesday at 12z. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2019/forecasting-system-upgrade-set-improve-global-weather-forecasts
  5. Some recent updates from Ventrice and Andy Hazelton over the last week. Andy Hazelton‏ @AndyHazelton May 17MoreLooking at some of the @NWSCPC ENSO products this morning - the upwelling Kelvin wave is starting to surface in the Eastern Pacific. Central Pacific still looks fairly warm for now. The overall subsurface warmth is actually below normal for the first time in over a year. Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice May 20MoreCFSv2 is starting to reamplify the western Pacific Low-Frequency forcing state again during the second half of June. This is opposite to what we'd we expect for El Nino advancement. This is more in lines with La Nina forcing. Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 4h4 hours agoMoreThis wave will likely result in another trade surge over the Pacific in the Week 2-3 time frame. Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 4h4 hours agoMoreI think we are getting close to the point in time on bailing on an "El Nino" signature in the Pacific this Summer... ESPECIALLY after looking at the amplitude of the upwelling Oceanic Kelvin wave entering the far eastern Pacific. This is the strongest upwelling KW in awhile
  6. I found this interesting too, and in the future when other SSW events happen, we will have clues where the cold weather will go. Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice Mar 1MoreI was re-giving my talk at #AMS2019 to some colleagues over in Europe this morning and noticed the Siberian SSWE warming composite +14 days after the event show the -PNA whereas during North Atlantic SSWE initiations, you don't get the trough over western North America...
  7. I love it around here when we have a sunny morning after an overnight snowfall.
  8. Greg Diamond‏ @gdimeweather 5h5 hours ago MoreThink it's been an extraordinarily snowy February? If you live in the Northwest or upper Midwest, you're absolutely right Here are some cities that experienced their snowiest Feb on record
  9. WRF and the Euro have been wrong about our area for this storm so far. 3 inches plus and still lightly snowing. We may surpass February 2014 for snowfall. We are also st about 88 inches or so estimated for the season.
  10. I was born and raised in Anacortes, and often, because is is right on the Sound, it is too warm for snow in marginal situations. It also often stays cooler in the summer compared to other places away from the water. Seattle could be 80 and Whidbey and Anacortes could be in the low 60's if the low clouds are still around.
  11. What has been impressive is the length of it. I don't know if many places have set any max/min records, probably not, but to go almost the entire month in February without going above freezing is very rare. I looked up a few snow records, and in Central Washington like where I live and in Wenatchee, it is probably about a top 5 or 6 event as far as snow goes, but if you go further south, like Yakima, Tri Cities, etc., it is probably the snowiest February on record. But that is pretty low hanging fruit, as some of those areas rarely get more than 12 inches in February.
  12. Seems close. I have had about 41 inches, so that map looks like it may be right for me. We actually had more in February 2014 though, which surprised me. Still a few days to catch up. Nowhere near a record for February though for where I live or for Eastern Washington as a whole, but certainly above normal.
  13. Pivotalweather already does, and I think it is a better NW view than Tidbits anyway.
  14. Ventrice had the 850's, here are the ground temps from Maue. Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 33m33 minutes ago MoreThe 7-day temperature anomaly map is amazing for the first week of March. (ECMWF EPS 12z)
  15. Storms going into California is not uncommon during El Nino, and we saw a lot of that earlier this winter.
  16. I think Nisbet from the Spokane NWS is getting a little tired of all the cold and snow . . . "Thursday and Friday: There is some model disagreement of what to do with the trough...keep it out there, push it through, keep it dry, wet, tomato, tomatoe... Temperatures through the forecast period will remain cold for this time of the year. ...Nothing we haven't experienced the last several weeks. More snow, more cold, more snow, more cold, more snow, more cold, you know the drill. /Nisbet"
  17. Someone else pointed out on twitter that the QPF ration might be less than 10:1, so that could mean a lot less snow, but it is also possible that if the winds stay offshore, that would help you guys. And time of day will make a difference. But there have been big snowstorms later than this, so anything is possible.
  18. Anyone have any 240 hour snow maps? The maps on weather.us (total precip falling as snow) look ridiculous for the mountains, would be interesting to see it in terms of actual snowfall.
  19. I hope I never get that old! Well, I hope I get that old, but still want to be young at heart. I know a guy who still cross country skis 5 miles every day, and he is in his late 80's. He is the guy on a lot of Leavenworth postcards that stands on the ledge of the Enzian Inn and plays the Alpenhorn in his lederhosen. He stopped doing that a year or so ago because of balance issues, but still skis every day during the winter. That's the guy I want to be like.
  20. I live in a snowy climate, we average 8 feet of snow every winter, a few winters ago we had 9 feet. You definitely have to be prepared for it. For me, it is not that much work. I do have to use the snowblower on my driveway, but I actually like doing that, but some would consider that work, and would get tired of it. They do plow our streets, so driving is rarely an issue, but you do need to drive cars that are AWD and it also really helps to have snow tires. The one thing I DON'T like is the berm at the end of the driveway. The snowblower is no help with that, it is simply grunt work with a shovel. No fun there. Our house was built to code and can handle large snow loads, so no worrying about shoveling the roof either.
  21. Did they do anything other than use El Nino climatology? Or were the long range computer models just going with Nino climatology too?
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