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Brian_in_Leavenworth

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Everything posted by Brian_in_Leavenworth

  1. El Nina is right, it is hard to scroll past it, especially on a phone. My suggestion to people is not to paste the aviation and marine parts of the afd or the list of watches snd warnings.
  2. Last nights Euro weeklies were much below to below normal all the way through mid March.
  3. At least in the PNW, before this month, it was acting like a classic El Nino. Split flow, warmer than normal temps, storms coming at us from the SW instead of the NW, (sometimes El Nino early winters are wet, sometimes dry), many storms going into California, etc., then a huge ridge in mid to late January over us giving other parts of the country cold weather and shutting down our winter. Absolute classic for the West. Then February happened. Whether humans define this as an official El Nino or not, the weather until then was acting like one in our part of the world.
  4. Trump did not invent the FV3, and at least he is willing to put in money to make the US models as good as the European models. In the long run the FV3 will probably be much better than the GFS (did you read the article?) but IMO they are pushing the release a bit too soon before they can make some of the obvious changes that they need to. In reality, they are tweaking all the models (including the Euro) all the time. And there is a place on this forum for political opinions, and this is not it.
  5. Ryan Maueā€¸Verified account @RyanMaue 3m3 minutes ago MoreRough way to run a winter in the Eastern US. EPS 12z just finished and I'm very much enjoying the look of this ridging over the Southeast.
  6. Good, balanced article about the FV3 https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/?utm_term=.984a4d557619
  7. I average 95 inches of snow per year. Once the melting starts, usually in early to mid March, you do want it to melt fast. But our grass is accumulated to snow and rebounds quite nicely. Proper fertilization and maintenance helps with that. We dont have much of a problem with flooding, though the river here will rise and some walking paths close to the river have to be diverted for a few weeks.
  8. For Seattle. For the North Sound, the 1996 event started 6 days earlier and had a lot more snow and a white Christmas.
  9. If this forum was filled with "normal" people from Western WA/OR who do not like snow and fear it, instead of the snow reports, predictions of snow amounts, etc, we would be reading all the panic reports, doom and gloom, sky is falling, etc. Kind of like this forum in real life when the models take away a snowstorm.
  10. One way to find new records is to go to NWS sites, go to the pull-down "latest text products", and look for "record reports". Then, whatever you find, look for the "older" one, and then again look for the "older" one, and so on. For example, from Seattle NWS: (you can go on and on and on with these, start here: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?afos=xxxrersew&wfo=sew&font=120&new=1&version=2 RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 1234 AM PST TUE FEB 12 2019 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT... A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 6.1 INCHES WAS SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.1 SET IN 1981. && ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT SEATTLE WA WFO... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 29 DEGREES WAS SET AT SEATTLE WA WFO YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 29 SET IN 2006. And: RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 523 PM PST MON FEB 11 2019 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT... A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 5.1 INCHES WAS SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.1 SET IN 1981. && ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT SEATTLE WA WFO... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 29 DEGREES WAS SET AT SEATTLE WA WFO TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 29 SET IN 2006. And: RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 1234 AM PST MON FEB 11 2019 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES WAS SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 24 SET IN 1982. && ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT SEATTLE WA WFO... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES WAS SET AT SEATTLE WA WFO YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 26 SET IN 2001. && ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT BELLINGHAM WA AIRPORT... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES WAS SET AT BELLINGHAM WA AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 20 SET IN 1994. && ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT OLYMPIA WA AIRPORT... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 5 DEGREES WAS SET AT OLYMPIA WA AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 15 SET IN 1982. And RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 518 PM PST SUN FEB 10 2019 $$ ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES WAS SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 24 SET IN 1982. && ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT OLYMPIA WA AIRPORT... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 5 DEGREES WAS SET AT OLYMPIA WA AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 15 SET IN 1982. && ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT BELLINGHAM WA AIRPORT... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES WAS SET AT BELLINGHAM WA AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 20 SET IN 1994. && ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT SEATTLE WA WFO... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES WAS SET AT SEATTLE WA WFO TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 26 SET IN 2001. You can keep going with this all the way to the beginning of the event.
  11. SXUS76 KOTX 120920 REROTX RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE, WA 1250 AM PST TUE FEB 12 2019 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT SPOKANE WA... A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 7.2 INCHES WAS SET AT SPOKANE WA AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 5.5 SET IN 1897. ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT WENATCHEE WA PANGBORN FIELD... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 12 DEGREES WAS TIED AT PANGBORN MEMORIAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THE RECORD OF 12 SET IN 1981.
  12. Good chance, especially if you get any more. Nightime lows below freezing will help. My snow will last until mid to late March. It's not just the more than 30 inches this month with more to come, it is the base that it fell on. While not a huge base for us, as it was only about 10-11 inches, it was very solid/consolidated. All of this will be very slow to melt once we do start to warm up, and who knows when that will be or how big our base will be by then.
  13. Great for you and me East of the Cascades, but the later in February you go, the harder it is to get snow west of the Cascades. The patterns shown on the morning runs would be great for them from mid December to mid January, but not good enough now. Good for the mountains though, and not far from being good enough for west of the mountains.
  14. He wrote that before the Euro came out. But in general he does trust the wrf a lot.
  15. By the way, during this whole time I think we all owe a debt of gratitude to those who have been posting maps that are not available without a subscription, and even those that are available. There are a lot of you that have really helped the rest of this community. Tim, you have posted so many maps, no doubt more than anyone, and so many people have benefited from seeing them. I am very grateful. I know Shawnigan also posts a lot of maps, so does SilverFallsAndrew, FrontalSnowsquall, etc. Probably missed a few, but thanks. I know it will help keep some of the new people here, as they see that there is a lot of very useful information here, as well as good discussions.
  16. It's interesting, since we used to live in Bellingham, we would drive to Everett to get here and turn East on highway 2, giving the impression that Leavenworth is due East of Everett, but in reality we are due East of Seattle.
  17. Good to see that it is snowing in Bellingham, per the Barkley Village streaming cam. Hope they finally get a bunch.
  18. And it shows about 6 inches for Leavenworth. Totally not buying it, though I wish it was true.
  19. The start of the 18z Euro was from 10AM this morning. So it counts any snow that it thinks fell from 10 AM onward.
  20. I live in that area, and I wish those maps included county lines or major highways. My only frame or reference is Lake Chelan to the North and Puget Sound to the West and I still can't make out my location.
  21. I think an important note in this evenings AFD for Seattle is that the QPF might be higher, increasing the snow totals for you on the west side. All those maps assume 10:1, maybe it will be a bit higher.
  22. For perspective, I get a lot of snow here in Leavenworth. When we do end up with bigger snows, the progression of forecasts for our area usually follows the script of just a few inches 2-3 days in advance, and then they slowly up the totals as we get closer to the event. Of course sometimes we have smaller events of just an inch or two, but so many times the forecast in advance will say 1-3 inches day/1-2 night, then 2-4 day/1-3 night, then 3-5 day, 2-4 night, etc. Rarely will they call for 8-10 inches 3-4 days in advance. Now for example, the AFD says 4-8 inches with maybe a foot. Talk about a large range, so they won't put up a forecast with the top amount at this time with that much uncertainty.
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