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Brian_in_Leavenworth

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Everything posted by Brian_in_Leavenworth

  1. I posted this last week, but we have a lot of new members, ans besides, it is a classic
  2. Phil would know, but I wonder if the arctic air itself would have been this cold a month ago. I don't just mean this year, with the timing of the SSW event, but in general, if it is in later January and into February that the arctic air is at its coldest.
  3. Good twitter exchange someone had with Scott Sistek for those of you on the Eastside (east of Puget Sound) Rob Nelson‏ @Robthegman 29m29 minutes ago MoreReplying to @ScottSKOMO@ScottSKOMO are east winds going to eat all the snow in Snoqualmie and north bend? 1 reply 0 retweets 1 like Reply1 Retweet Like1 Scott Sistek‏Verified account @ScottSKOMO 9m9 minutes ago MoreOne of the variables. Earlier models had stronger east winds and lower snow totals there but more recent trends haven't had as much and keep snow on Eastside too.
  4. Thanks for sharing that. Good to see that the Kuchera ratios are available on that site, nobody ever posts those.
  5. It would be interesting to go back to the January forum to just before the models starting locking in on this. IIRC, it had been showing something good, backed off on it for awhile, then suddenly starting showing something good and here we are.
  6. Kuchera ratio vs 10:1 ratio. Dont know which is more accurate in general.
  7. If you change it to the kuchera ratio, totals change, in some places dramatically. My area does, as temps will be quite cold and snow ratios may be higher than 10:1. Yours may be too. The maps everyone looks at assumes 10:1.
  8. Albrecht pointed out that models usually overdo the gradiants. They had the last system progged at 29.9 mb, which was clearly overdone. Worth watching though. Like he said still windy and cold.
  9. The legendary 1989 blast was 24mb. The also legendary 1990 December blasts were 25mb. So this would be unbelievable.
  10. 1990 had two storms in December that I think were both more snowy than the 1989 Feb 1 arctic blast, and in 1990 led to a white Christmas. That was a much better event for North Sound as far as snow goes. But 1990 was pretty D**n windy too.
  11. It might be accurate, but rule of thumb is to not get your forecast from there. Mark Nelsen is a much better source for you. Recently the Weather Channel had Bellingham with higher temperatures than Seattle, which is ridiculous during cold weather situations. They also have Leavenworth sometimes with higher temperatures than Wenatchee, which doesn't happen during the winter time.
  12. So did the 1989 blast. And it was relatively dry in Whatcom County, especially Bellingham (I lived there at the time). I think there was a 100MPH wind gust with the 1989 event, and some areas had temps down to 0. I was surprised that this coming event was compared to the 1990 event as well as others.
  13. Here is a guy those of you on twitter should ask to join this forum. This is really interesting! Michael Snyder‏ @SeattleWXGuy 31m31 minutes ago More1/6 #wawx Here are a Few Arctic outbreaks facts for Western Washington. We hear a lot about the Frazier River Outflow winds, especially in Arctic outbreaks. This gap provides cold us air access to western Washington from the interior of British Columbia. Michael Snyder‏ @SeattleWXGuy 32m32 minutes ago More2/6 The strength of these winds is dependent on the pressure difference or Gradient from Williams Lake, BC to Bellingham, WA (YWL-BLI). The stronger the gradient, the stronger the wind, and (usually) the stronger the arctic invasion into our region. Michael Snyder‏ @SeattleWXGuy 32m32 minutes ago More3/6 Any of you old timers that still live here remember the 1989 and 1990 arctic blasts. These are the record holders for strongest gradient YWL-BLI. 1990 had a whooping 25mb gradient, 1989 was at about 24mb. These were truly intense events. Michael Snyder‏ @SeattleWXGuy 32m32 minutes ago More4/6 Both of these events sent crippling snow/wind into the Puget Sound and have been the hallmark of arctic invasions at least in the last 60 years or so. Michael Snyder‏ @SeattleWXGuy 32m32 minutes ago More5/6 This much talked about setup on Friday/Saturday is showing the potential for gradients OVER 26mb. Also, Model agreement is as good as I can remember seeing. Michael Snyder‏ @SeattleWXGuy 33m33 minutes ago More6/6 As the high develops and retrogrades towards central British Columbia the strength of the high and resulting toughing over the Pac NW will change, so stay tuned.
  14. Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 3h3 hours agoMorePersistent upper-level pattern with trough over Western US and ridge over SE US during the next 2-weeks. Week 1 and Week 2 temperature anomalies (ECMWF EPS) are quite similar.
  15. This is why pro mets don't want to post here. Believing in jinxes and thinking that the people on here know more about the weather than they do is pretty insulting to them, I would imagine. Yes, they are wrong sometimes, but not as wrong as the amateurs around here are, and I have been on this forum since the beginning.
  16. I see this kind of stability in the EPS all the time. In the summer.
  17. BTW, I mentioned this before, does anyone have any clue as to what the snow ratios would be for your area? It will be interesting if it is different that the usual 10:1. I know where I live since it is colder it can be higher.
  18. Pretty impressive that even areas pretty far out into the ocean are getting a lot of snow
  19. This assumes 10:1 ratios. Might be higher ratios in some colder areas.
  20. Another reason why you don't want to trust your weather app or weather.com: It is showing Bellingham with highs in the 40's this week and with higher temps than Seattle.
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