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gabel23

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Everything posted by gabel23

  1. Definite clear banding setting up. Oh Canada has it way wider. Something to watch tonight.
  2. The nam and high rez are picking up exactly what Jim flowers mentioned in the video today with a heavy band. Just what the Canadian model has been showing for a while now. That will determine who picks up 3-5”. I’m hoping that thing stays along the I-80 corridor and north like the Canadian. Otherwise I might get nothing but flakes.
  3. WOW. Probably one of the most ominous disco's I have ever read from Buffalo. Explosive cyclogenesis will take place over the mid western states into southern Ontario on Friday...as an anomalously strong 150kt H25 jet will pass through the base of a very deep longwave trough. This will support rapid deepening of a corresponding sfc low that will track from Indiana north-northeast to southern Ontario by late Friday. The low will deepen from roughly 1000mb Thursday evening to roughly 968mb by Friday evening...easily meeting the definition of bombogenesis (24mb/24hrs). Such deepening is relatively rare in the Lower Great lakes...but more common across the Upper Great Lakes and certainly with Nor`easters along the coast. Some of the parameters of this intense storm are climatologically `off the charts`...such as MSLP and strength of both the low level and upper level jets. One could certainly describe this storm system as a once in a generation type of event. Subtle differences remain, but there remains general model agreement in the overall large scale scenario, which adds confidence.
  4. Meanwhile in Buffalo: (I'm a big Buffalo Bills fan by the way, GO BILLS!) .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...Powerful Storm To Impact our Region Heading Into and THROUGH the Christmas Weekend... ...Winter storm watches issued for Western NY with more likely to come east of Lake Ontario on later shifts... An extremely amplified longwave pattern during this period will spawn one of the most intense storm systems in decades to impact the Mid West and Great Lakes region. This system will likely end up setting low pressure records once it passes north of the border and will have the potential to generate storm force winds over the Lower Great lakes. They are having a winter for the ages. This thing is gonna hurt!
  5. I'm thinking blizzard warnings along I-80 from Kearney all the way to Omaha. WWA outside of that. Regardless if we see an inch or 4" it's gonna be blowing around like crazy!
  6. I"m riding the Canadian and Euro. By far have been the most consistent. Not saying we get the totals the Canadian is showing but it has a good idea in terms of the heaviest snow band. That actually lines ups pretty well with what the GFS is showing; I just don't trust the GFS though that thing has been Jekyll and Hyde! Jim Flowers seems to believe in it also. I'm fine with any amount, just please give us enough to cover the ground before the arctic invasion.
  7. This is a zoomed in image of that with totals. Expected Least chance total I'll gladly take the expected and run with it.
  8. This qpf would give me .20”. 3-4” and I’m happy. I haven’t seen an inch or more in two years! Just don’t go any drier than that models!
  9. It’s back down to reality. There is no way we receive what the gfs was showing last night. Probably no way we receive what it’s showing now. The model has been all over the place unlike what it was showing today. Think blend, trends and the euro. That’s my two cents. That and look at qpf forecast on the models, times it by 15 to be conservative and that’s probably what you are going to see.
  10. According to the LRC; we should see a warm up as the last storm due in is the veteran's day storm. Here is what I got from my records: Major warm up before the storm. Really warm, muggy including overnight record low max’s. Cold front came through over night on the 10th. 20 degree temp drop. Major blizzard in North Dakota. Hurricane in Florida. Precip amount: .03” Then the next storm was this: Nov. 15th to Nov. 17th Major ULL moved off from our south east. First snows for Kansas, Iowa and Illnois. Turning into a major lake effect snow machine. Cold sinking into our area all week w/ temps 30 degrees below normal. We received a dusting of snow on Wed. Nov. 16th. Precip: dusting of snow
  11. We have had freezing fog/mist since mid morning. Nothing like the previous ice we received around here but impressive enough. We also had a switch over to snow and have received a dusting. I think the name of this topic fits very well with the upcoming event!
  12. Things have gotten slick here from mist. I have heard of reports of some accidents north of Columbus. I have to run my daughter and I to the doctor in David City, which is 20 miles away. Will see how slick it is on highway 92.
  13. The GFS is about the only model that showed this!!! Hopefully a sign that it has the upper hand of predicting the next blizzard! ENJOY!
  14. Holy Moses are things coming in hot tonight! The AO and NAO are doing their work in the second cycle of the LRC. Let’s keep the qpf going up that’s all I ask. This storm closed out around southern Missouri in November I’ll take what’s the gfs is showing this time around!
  15. North Platte write up. https://www.weather.gov/lbf/December2022Blizzard
  16. Just for record keeping........This storm would be the Oct. 25th storm. Did the math, that comes out to 48 days! The NAO was near neutral back in October.
  17. Have you ever seen a 2 mile long train? If you have ever driven along the roads that run parallel to rail road tracks in Nebraska you understand what I'm talking about. Well, this train was incased in snow from this blizzard; something I have never seen in my life time. This is from Dalton, Nebraska.
  18. This is an unusual stat but not hard to believe. If we didn’t learn from the dust bowl era and do no till we would be in worst shape. We really need a wet spring this year or will be in trouble.
  19. for the second straight year we are in a snow drought. Depressing doesn’t even begin to explain the frustration. It’s amazing how it lines up exactly with how last years winter season ended.
  20. If in fact the LRC is somewhere between 45-50 days, this would be exactly 47 days after the negative tilted trough moved through back on Nov. 3rd-5th. This is what I have in my notes.
  21. Nice Cresent Moon screw hole right through Nebraska love it.
  22. That's very similar to what the EURO was showing a couple days ago!
  23. I must say I'm getting a little more excited as the Icon, gem and GFS all show good snows for most of us. Now hopefully the EURO comes back to the west and we should be good, right?!? RIGHT?! . GFS more aggressive with the first wave on Monday and turns the second wave into an east coast bomb. The ICON AND GEM are stronger with the second wave and cut the trough over the Great Lakes.
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