gabel23

Wow Thunder ice/snow showing up! IMG_2193.MOV

Yes sir we are! Drizzle has just moved in within the past 30 minutes.

No late start but I'm wondering if we get an early out. We haven't had any precip thus far but did have frost this morning. Temps are in the teens; waiting to see if the precip makes it up to us.

That would mean the big dog comes a week after; right around the winter solstice. Here is what I have saved for that Nov. 3rd-5th storm that dropped 2-4" of rain in KC!

Got to give a shout out to good ole Jim Flowers. He mentioned in one of his videos about storms in three. That storm next week is showing up very well on all major models! I'm excited for next week. It also matches up very well with the negative tilted trough back in Nov. 3rd-5th. This storm I believe will be the signature storm of this years LRC. https://fb.watch/hew6a05r08/

Seems like the models are starting to come to an agreement in terms of track. Thermo's is gonna be the battle. Northern Nebraska, South Dakota, and Northern Iowa sitting in a good spot for moderate snow. Ice/rain will fall south of there. I would gladly take any form of precip. Dry air to the south will also be a problem.

Wouldn't complain one bit! I would take a good soaking rain in December any day of the week with how dry it's been!

Up up and away. I'm gonna ride the euro it's been fairly consistent. I wouldn't be shocked though if it does move north with the other models. We are jinxed at receiving any substantial precip.....

Sorry to flood the board with boring stuff but this just amazes me. The haboob is still showing up, granted harder to see, on the radar. This is something straight out of the 30’s. If we don’t see much precip in the plains this winter it’s only gonna get worse. Blowing Dust Advisory BLOWING DUST ADVISORY NWS NORMAN OK 555 PM CST FRI DEC 2 2022 OKZ004>006-009>011-014-015-030300- /O.NEW.KOUN.DU.Y.0001.221203T0000Z-221203T0300Z/ 600 PM CST FRI DEC 2 2022 Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Roger Mills-Dewey- ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY... * WHAT...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, visibility between one quarter mile and one mile in blowing dust expected. For the Wind Advisory, north winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Harper, Woods, Alfalfa, Ellis, Woodward, Major, Roger Mills and Dewey Counties. * WHEN...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, until 9 PM CST this evening. For the Wind Advisory, until 6 AM CST Saturday.

Might be the most impressive wow!!

This was taken by the NWS in Good land. A legit Haboob is taking place just incredible.

Wow nice work, that's impressive! It's just like the dirty 30's.

Showing up on radar too. Man I would love to see pictures of what this thing looks like! DUST STORM WARNING NWS GOODLAND KS 151 PM CST FRI DEC 2 2022 KSC153-193-NEC087-022115- /O.NEW.KGLD.DS.W.0007.221202T1951Z-221202T2115Z/ 151 PM CST FRI DEC 2 2022 Rawlins County KS-Thomas County KS-Hitchcock County NE- The National Weather Service in Goodland has issued a * Dust Storm Warning for... Thomas County in northwestern Kansas... Rawlins County in northwestern Kansas... Hitchcock County in southwestern Nebraska... * Until 315 PM CST. * At 150 PM CST, a wall of dust was along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Culbertson to 10 miles north of McDonald to 12 miles south of St. Francis, moving east at 55 mph. HAZARD...Less than a quarter mile visibility with damaging wind in excess of 60 mph. SOURCE...Doppler radar, public reports and satellite imagery. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel. This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 36 and 74. Locations impacted include... Colby, Oakley, Atwood, Trenton, Brewster, Levant and Culbertson. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is no safe place on a highway when a dust storm hits. Visibility can be lost immediately, making it difficult or impossible to slow down and avoid stopped vehicles. Delay travel, or safely exit the highway before the dust storm arrives.

I thought the same exact thing! It’s finally posted on their website; I was shocked to see that he was going with only 17” of snow in KC. I see you guys right on the edge all year and for the most part being in the . I think the main track or hot spot is from central Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, NW Arkansas, central iowa up to Detroit. Very similar to the winter in the mid 2010’s. I think it was the winter of 14 or 15 that had the southwesterly flow with KC on the northwestern edge of all storm tracks. Nebraska and points west of that track was in a drought and always just missed the brunt of the storms. I think that was around the great ground hogs days storm? Central Missouri received like 20” of snow from that one storm.

It's so crazy, he used to do a big winter special and post it on the blog. I'm wondering if he will do that maybe later in December?

That's crazy b/c I figured you would average a 12"+ snowstorm at least twice a year. We have actually been very fortunate the past 10 years. I have seen 3 in that time span with one storm having thunder snow. We only average 30" for an entire season and most of the time they are nickel and dime type storms. The winter of 2009-10, which I believe was my first year on this website, was bar none the best I have ever experienced. The teleconnections was pretty much spot on with what's going on now; the only difference is that was an El Nino winter. My area received our seasonal total in the month of December alone! We had a 20"+ snow depth after the x-mas blizzard until Feb. that year.

Correct me if I'm wrong; a neutral to positive PNA brings in the ridge to the west and brings us a NW flow? Coupled that with the blocking of the NAO and negative AO slows storms down with the arctic air? I understand the NAO and AO but get confused with the PNA.

KC peeps, wasn’t Gary supposed to release his winter forecast tonight? Did he do it at 6 or not doing it until 10?

Also wasting a perfect negative AO and NAO combo.

My first small taste of winter. It will be gone by this weekend… IMG_2167.MOV

Not my pictures but conditions around here not very good. Blowing snow and a sheet of ice are making for difficult travel.

Very slick around here too. We started with a late start but we have since called off school. A lot of the area schools around ended up closing. We haven't received a ton of precip but man it looks like winter out there at least! We have a decent band of snow that will be moving through the area that might drop an inch of snow if we are lucky.

@Tom things look like they match up really well with the storm back on Oct 11th. We had severe storms form just to my east has we had a cold front swing through. I found your post from back then and the blocking was showing up too! That means the next storm we will have to track, at least the next major one, would be the massive negative tilted storm back on Nov. 3rd through the 5th. That too missed me off to the south and east but with this blocking I'm hoping that one turns into a share the wealth storm! That would be due in about 24 days. Overall, I calculated the cycle to be around 49 or so days what you think? The last time I can remember when we had both the AO and NAO be this negative was in 2009. That was an epic winter for a lot of us in the Great Plains; but the LRC set up very well for me in Oct. of that year as it was very wet and cold. Time will tell and it's tough breaking through a drought but I'm hoping things change for the best in the drought stricken areas.

This storm fits perfectly well with the storm back on Oct. 11th when we had a cold front move through. My area got missed out but Lincoln, Omaha, KC and areas east was hit by severe weather. That would put this years cycle around 49 days. Currently 23 degrees and had a freezing rain mix earlier this morning but that has since changed over to snow. The snow is blowing around pretty good and has a nice winter feel out there!

Gonna get screwed out of this one too. Kiss my you know what drought. This pattern is setting up to be so close but yet so far away….