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gabel23

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Everything posted by gabel23

  1. Good stuff Tom!!! That would be exactly what the doctor ordered for the drought stricken areas!
  2. My County and specifically my town is now in the D4 Exceptional drought category. Haven't been in this territory since 2012; the only thing is this drought is far worse. We have been working on this thing for over a year. We are in dire need of rain and it's no where in site. Gonna go down with one of the driest April in history.......
  3. As the upper low kicked up to the northeast dust from Texas was pulled into the storm system. We had dust suspended in the air. That dust worked into the storm system causing the dirty snow.
  4. Another dry slot for us in Nebraska. Hoping as we move forward in April we start getting something. Need a wet month around these parts.
  5. Well I'm praying for you all!! I have a ton a family members who live in Des Moines too. Craziest set up day I have seen in a long time. Not even the tornadoes down south last week had this type of environmental setup.
  6. Yeah look at the individual cells already making their way up into a loaded gun area. Scary situation setting up for you folks in Iowa and Illinois. Sad part is this things are going to get going with school going on.
  7. Holy smokes things are about to hit the fan. I don't think I have ever seen wording like this: Tornado Driven High Risk?! The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Iowa Western Illinois Northern and Central Missouri Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Friday morning and evening from 1145 AM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and spread eastward across the watch area. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all possible with this activity. Parameters are favorable for the potential for strong/violent tornadoes and very large hail.
  8. I agree 100%! I used to take this day off every year but haven't done so in a while. I only get so many days a year to take off from teaching and I need to save them for other things. GO CUBS! I question the direction the Cubs organization is going right now; the good thing is nobody is eliminated from contention on opening day!
  9. Your area thinking severe storms on top of snowpack? What’s your snow depth? I’m hoping storms fire further south and I get something before dry slot.
  10. I was in Omaha all weekend so I missed out on the snow. My area was one of the big winners too with reports ranging from 8-10. Got home about 430 and maybe 3” remain. Amazing what the March sun does. Biggy seems to be looming on the horizon Easter weekend. Will see if that stays.
  11. Bismarck, ND has had 8"+ of snow since Nov. 10th! Go to their monthly data starting then and work up until now it's unbelievable what kind of winter they have had!
  12. Apparently the forecaster from oax who wrote the disco today forgot the NWS doesn’t issue blizzard watches anymore…. While it`s too soon to issue any type of winter storm watch (or possibly blizzard watch), we will continue to highlight the Thursday wintry weather potential through the hazardous weather outlook, a DSS packet on our webpage, and through social media channels.
  13. Wow crazy! You still have managed to get 4" more than me. Been a horrible pattern for everyone along and south of I-80. Hopefully next year will be better for all. Crazy to think that areas to my north and west have seen 50"+ here in Nebraska.
  14. The amount of dry slots we have had here in Eastern Nebraska is unreal. I went back and counted from my records and we have had 4 dry slots. Now with that being said; this storm is the only one that has produced significant weather for my area. 50 days back was Jan 18th/19th I picked up 6.5" of snow. 100 days back Nov. 28th/29th I picked up rain changing to ice. We shall see what it brings this time around. Lots of time left for this thing to move back. Safe to say we will see some significant snows somewhere in the Central Plains next week.
  15. Pretty good write up by OAX today about the potential snow next week. The ensemble guidance is an interesting mix of confident and unconfident regarding the potential for a significant winter storm during the second half of next week. When you delve into the guidance from the GEFS and EPS, the signal for a potentially significant precipitation event in the Plains has remained consistent. Model runs from both ensemble systems have been advertising a precipitation event since February 27th. Unfortunately both ensemble systems are really on the struggle bus when it comes to the timing. These same timing disparities have been evident in the deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS for what they are worth at this time range. Hopefully these timing issues will be resolved over the weekend as the trough out West develops and becomes better resolved in the model initial condition fields. With these factors in mind, forecaster confidence in a widespread precipitation event in the Plains during the second have of next week is on the higher end, while confidence in the timing of that precipitation is low. For now our forecast favors the model mean, and leans towards snow in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa between next Thursday and Saturday. Monitor the forecast closely going forward if your plans are weather sensitive later next week.
  16. Well the Euro would pretty much crush everyone along I-80 from Nebraska to Ohio. I've seen this before; all major models showing something big and then as we get closer to the event it's a dud. Next weekend couldn't be any more worse for us in Nebraska; we have our boys state B-Ball tournament in Lincoln. I guess I'll get excited about a snowstorm for us when we are 12 hours out.
  17. Meanwhile my area is the driest in the area. Just been getting missed in all directions. Need to start getting lucky as we transition to the spring otherwise will be in trouble again.
  18. We have a light glaze of ice and maybe an inch of snow. It's amazing how bad of a situation that can cause. I drove around the area and roads are snow packed to go along with the ice. I'm thinking tomorrow mornings drive won't be a good one. The secondary low is now swinging out of Colorado and snow squall warnings are breaking out. Hoping to get another inch or two and then bring on the warm up.
  19. Holy snow piles that’s nuts!! How much more snow you expecting??
  20. Clearly, the forecaster out of Minneapolis is a hockey fan… Or sports fan in general! Might be one of the best discos I’ve ever read! MAJOR WINTER STORM, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... No significant changes were made to this forecast versus the previous forecast. A major winter storm remains on track to bring heavy snow along with gusty winds and drifting snow across the region. I want to put this Winter storm into into context for the wider audience. This system has maintained remarkable consistency in model and ensemble guidance going back several days. This itself is a rare feat for any system. This storm is a high floor, high ceiling event. What does that mean? There are high probabilities (75 to 90+ percent) that many locations in our forecast area will see a foot of snow by the time it ends Thursday night. This would be considered our "floor" or the lower limit of the potential outcomes. We`ll call this the "if everything goes wrong" scenario. The "ceiling" or upper limit of the potential outcomes or the "if everything goes right" scenario. The ceiling for the entire event is around 2 feet of snow. In hockey, every team wants to draft a prospect that has a high floor/high ceiling because if they only hit their floor, it`s still an impact player on the bottom 6 of your team. But, if they can hit the ceiling, you`re getting a superstar type player that doesn`t come around often. You know the type. Back to the Meteorology. A high floor/high ceiling event that has remarkable run to run consistency is an unicorn. But we`re still 48 to 60 hours out from when W MN will see the first edge of precipitation move in from the Dakotas so there is plenty of time for things to change with respect to the forecast. If things trend toward the floor, it`s still a major winter storm with significant impacts.
  21. I measured between 3.5" and 4" this morning before I left for school. We had a late start; my driveway will have to be scooped after I get home from school! I had about a foot in my driveway. If it wasn't for the dry air we had to over come last night I'm guessing my totals would have been doubled. Oh well, I'm just glad we didn't get skunked!
  22. Well dry air wins out here. Nothing falling but radar is showing reflectivity.Going off humidity; I’m sitting at 77%. Places getting light snow are at 82% and @CentralNebWeatheris sitting at 88% with moderate snow. South central Nebraska is gonna do really well. I’m holding on hope areas from Lincoln and Omaha on east get something. You guys are so over due.
  23. Pretty clear banding showing up right a long the platte river. It’s full so hopefully that can add some moisture to this band……
  24. Snow is pulsating right over your area. River effect snow?? Hoping it rides it’s way up north into my area.
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