bud2380

Euro brings snow down to Cedar Rapids on Friday morning.

Canadian is better further south, probably just late to the party. The GFS has become very dry for Iowa compared to previous runs. Only about a half inch for Iowa City/CR compared to 2-3" previous days. GDPS like I said is better, but I am not trusting this solution.

This Thu/Fri clipper is gonna mean business for someone.

EPS Mean

Euro

And it's still snowing at this point in the run.

GFS dramatically cut back on QPF in Iowa as well from just the 00z run.

The current 12z GFS vs. 24 hours ago is much further north with snow. Just going to have to hope for some heavy rains down here.

18z NAM would say, upgrade that to a warning and expand it.

A 2 county wide WWA was issued in parts of MN.

Any signs of winter again this year? Man, everyday I take a peak at the models, no decent snow to be found anywhere in the middle of the country. Long range temps still look above average for the forseeable future.

I had a half inch of slushy snow on my car when I left for work this morning.

I'm so jealous. Once in my life, I want to be present for a massive lake effect snow event and just watch it unfold.

Report of 2.3” near my house.

Looking at the radar, it seems like southern Iowa is in line to get the heaviest snow. I80 on south anyways. We'll see if this rotates more due east, or continue to head ESE.

Ironically the Euro kept getting stronger as the event got closer. Looks like a slightly weaker version of what the Canadian (RDPS and GDPS) have been showing for a couple days. H/T to the Canadian models for really nailing this one.

15z HRRR does the same thing as the RAP. But 2-3" is fine for me.

The RAP really weakens as it heads east across Iowa.

18z HRRR

Not much change on the Euro. The big question will be, is this system more moisture starved like the Euro shows? Or does it have a little more juice like the Canadian shows? The GFS just seems out to lunch at this point.

Canadian remains strong.

15z RAP

18z RDPS

18z NAM cut back on totals quite a bit. But still pretty solid.

The Canadian (GDPS) looks really good too.