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Jesse

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Everything posted by Jesse

  1. He's probably good at picking people like that out on an online forum. Andrew.
  2. I understand and acknowledge that we have a lot of boxes checked in our favor right now. And there are indeed some who are unnecessarily negative here and others who are unnecessarily positive, but I think overall it’s pretty balanced. But you know as well as anyone that nothing is ever a slam dunk until the good stuff is at our doorsteps. Simply stating that fact and nodding to the inherent uncertainty that gives this stuff half of it’s fun should not be construed as being “way too negative”.
  3. It hasn’t happened yet. We’re still ten days away from anything even getting close to starting to happen. You are surprised people are skeptical about long range models and reluctant to go all in right now after how many times we have been burned (you included) over the years?
  4. In the short term looks like some heavy rain at times tomorrow through early Wednesday. 2”+ a good bet in many spots. Should also be interesting to see how warm things get with the south winds ahead of the cold front Tuesday evening. Outside chance PDX hits 60.
  5. 00z GFS was a pretty stellar run. Nice to see timing move up a little too.
  6. I imagine you wearing a monocle while saying this Andrew
  7. They both know you personally and live in far flung regions of the state from which they send you weather reports
  8. It has also snowed at my house before. And I’ve got pics to prove it.
  9. Andrew someone told me the 18z ensembles aren’t as good. Is this true
  10. The only gripe I have is it delays the onset of a meaningfully below average regime, but on the other hand it’s pretty common for big pattern changes to be pushed back a little later than expected.
  11. 1996 keeps popping into my head as a possible guide, progression wise, too. Although obviously it could also end up being completely different. The similar calendar timing and ENSO state makes it easy to stand out, though.
  12. That was a chilly one. I can distinctly remember driving down 136th avenue on the way to work at the Cascade Park Safeway and it SNOWING in the middle of the day.
  13. Dunno. The signal for a pattern change to much cooler out around the 7-10 day range is definitely taking shape now. I think stabbing at something specific is still an exercise in futility though. Cold onshore flow certainly looks like the best bet at the onset but beyond that who knows. We've seen cold onshore flow patterns morph into something memorable or go out with a whimper. Ask again in a week.
  14. That's good. I ask since that period inherently holds more weight than the long range stuff, so it's always good to see improvement bleeding over into the short to mid-range.
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