Jesse

What a godsend that pattern would be. A good analog could be the trough tease in early August 2018 that ultimately ended up digging well offshore and giving us another heatwave.

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Goofus!

Fits well with my prediction of the weather doing something over the next couple weeks.

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Leaf blowers are themselves a product of the Devil.

Careful. There are some here who are incredibly defensive about the topic. Like you will make them cry.

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Almost leaf blowing season! Summer is winding down. 

There have almost been enough withered dead leaves around here left over from the gates of hell opening for a couple days in late June to warrant a second leafblower season entirely.

23 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Nice sunset,

And so early!

I found the will to go out on the porch and watch it as well as snap a photo of the pretty pink clouds despite clearly hating my life.

Looks like the 00Z GFS likes the idea of that little vort max lifting north late Saturday/early Sunday as well. 

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Hey, at least it’s something beyond just commiserationcasting.

Talking about how ridiculously warm and dry it’s been in a bad light is quite offensive. Not like people are actually affected by things like severe drought and wildfire. Now if they closed the Keizer In-N-out!!

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think another round of amplification is good possibility with some manner of cyclogenic (by mid summer standards) activity. As I said, it would be preferable if lightning didn’t strike twice in reference to late June.

it IS possible to have a more volatile pattern and still have to watch Woody Harrelson vomit.  

So if we see literally anything other than a stagnant, sprawling 4CH centered to our east and weak onshore flow west of the Cascades in the next few weeks you will call it a forecasting win. That’s like Phil level hedging.

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Nope.

More of the same until Columbus Day 2022.

Weren’t you just talking about a high end heat event in the wake of the last run? That would be more of the same.

26 minutes ago, Jesse said:

12z EPS 500mb mean on the left, op on the right. Hour 240:

 

 

Some slight differences...

For the record, neither the 12z EPS mean nor the Euro operational are showing a pattern shake up with troughing inland and more heat near the coast at day 10. That’s just a different flavor of a roided up 4CH driven western heat pattern, still centered inland with troughing offshore on the EPS and operational.

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

My bad, I was probably reading into things too much. Just a lot of negativity, lol. 

It’s all good. I think people will see a lot of complaining about the heat and rainlessness and just associate it all with me, even if I’m not logged in.

That said, I definitely haven’t been happy with the weather this summer, but that can be said about most summers recently. 

12z EPS 500mb mean on the left, op on the right. Hour 240:

Some slight differences...

16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

As for the GEFS, I’d guess the mean is pretty noisy at the moment.

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Eh, I think you might be sitting on a little recency bias. Feels like a pattern shake up is in order after a pretty long stretch of mundanity, even by July standards. Even this week’s heat is a pretty pedestrian pattern overall. If we’re able to hit triple digits with it it’ll be pretty remarkable.

As for the GEFS, I’d guess the mean is pretty noisy at the moment.

I don’t understand how it can be considered a pattern shake up when it’s the same net result, more heat.

90% of the western US has been sitting in some form of heatwave for the better part of a month now. Hotter here would simply take an expansion of the current pattern, which looks to happen later this week.

A pattern shake up would be western troughing in some form.

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

My point is that there is a lot of high end potential/amplification with the pattern in the 7-14 day range. The models are hinting pretty hard at it after a month of a very narrow range of pretty traditional 4CH fluctuations.

I know you and your idol have each other all worked up, but it is something worth discussing. 

Fair. I was going to comment yesterday that you have made a definite move toward more weather related content lately. I’m not complaining.

Another major heat event would really suck on multiple levels. Kind of goes without saying. That said I’m not seeing anything too striking on the models aside from the odd Euro op run at day 10.

4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Dude, you have kind of gone off the deep end over the last few months. 
 

Yes, our climate is warming, but you are letting it completely take over your personality. Lots of weird aggressive comments (inaccurately attacking people as if they are wishing for more heat) that are starting to get old. 
 

I know the weather has sucked and it isn’t healthy for our area, but I really do hope you aren’t getting too negative in other parts of your life because of it. 

Weird post. If anything I have been more toned down and posting less than usual considering the horrible weather. And using posting patterns here to read into someone’s personal life is kind of silly.

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Ridiculously anomalous as in more high end heat for us? Very possible, although I do suspect that we have a finite cap on what we're capable of this week. 103 is small potatoes now.

Otherwise the pattern going forward looks to be a basic continuation of the stable pattern that we've more or less seen since June 20. Not otherwise sensing anything noteworthy in the pipeline,

I think Matt has been dipping into Jim’s candy stash the last few days.

Impressive August jet at hour 377 of the 06z Euro!

27 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

My apologies for just wanting to talk about the meteorological points of it. I’ll try to be more apocalyptic moving forward.  

There has been plenty of meteorological analysis this morning, it just doesn’t happen to be in your preferred flavor of embracing any and all sun and warmth no matter how destructive it is.

We all know who’s really good at that here, and that’s why he consistently gets a free pass from you. 

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Melodrama aside, there’s a ton of potential out there for something ridiculously anomalous.  Chances are lightning won’t strike twice in the same summer…

The weather itself has been melodramatic, so yeah simply talking about what has happened seems pretty hyperbolic. 

Hope we hit 110+ again!  

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That ridge is…. amplified.

So many fun and interesting paths to the same end result, historic heat and crippling drought.

Worst case scenario is the name of the game lately.

27 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Time to buckle up for the Euro. Any bets on how many hundreds of miles offshore it stalls the next trough?

Keep in mind ten days ago there were runs that showed troughing over us now. That trough verified about 500 miles NW of us and is about to pump up our next heat event.

Already looking way hotter on Friday and Saturday than the GFS.

Time to buckle up for the Euro. Any bets on how many hundreds of miles offshore it stalls the next trough?

Keep in mind ten days ago there were runs that showed troughing over us now. That trough verified about 500 miles NW of us and is about to pump up our next heat event.

Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Pardon my ignorance, but what is the Sunday curse?

 

There were a couple Sundays over the spring where we fell a little short of the expected 10+ degrees above average with blazing sunshine from dawn until dusk. I’m still talking it over with my therapist.

41 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Let's put things in perspective:

We had the driest spring on record by a large margin. Our all-time high temperature was shattered last month by a large margin and was broken on 3 consecutive days. June was the warmest of all-time. 43 out of the past 56 days encompassing all of June and July have been warmer than normal. July will be one of the warmest on record. August will begin very warm. We are in the midst of one of the longest dry spells in history. 

There is no other way to spin this other than it being historically warm and dry. To top it off, there is endless warmth and drought for the foreseeable future. 

This is all for PDX specifically, but region-wide, the bigger picture is the same. 

 

 

You forgot about the Sunday curse