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Everything posted by Jesse

  1. You seem to have a healthy and balanced attitude about missing out on snow and the ability to enjoy it when others in similarly unfavorable areas get it. What are you doing on this forum.
  2. I for one Andrew am looking forward to some classic chilly and wet PNW La Niña weather the rest of the month, with low snow levels at times
  3. Worth noting the other two lead to historic, long lived mid-winter cold spells. I'm not sure about 1919-20 but obviously 1949-50 was strong -ENSO.
  4. October 2014 was one of our warmest on record... I already made a list of all the years since 2000 that it's worked out, versus those that it hasn't. It's a sign of strength to be able to modify your opinions when provided with ample evidence to the contrary. I'm not even trying to argue that cold in October is always good, just that it's not always bad and in fact there are many examples of both.
  5. Sort of a different way of making my same point. It's largely dependent upon the context of the year in question. But by no means a stand alone, universal predictor either way.
  6. Of course calling that month active would be a stretch. Chilly and dry. Felt like we got a taste of central Oregon’s October climo that year.
  7. I’m going to take that one sample and crystallize it into an absolutely irrational fear of anything resembling longwave troughing before 12/1.
  8. A clean sweep through the end of the month would at least be a nice dynamic offset to the blowtorch first half.
  9. Don't want to jinx it, but looks like PDX could be working on back to back 40s today!!
  10. This October was warm and honestly not very interesting aside from the two day cold snap. You can believe whatever you want to believe. You prove that frequently here lol. But the list of years I made for Frosty on the last page shows that cold in October has worked out more often than not, even since the turn of the millennium. Acting like it's always a kiss of death is nothing better than superstition fueled by confirmation bias. Same could be said for acting like it's always a slam dunk. Truth is its a mixed bag and largely dependent on ENSO state.
  11. You might be thinking of 2019? That one was cold most of the month. Last October had the airmass on the 25th-26th that brought a quick shot of cold air and some record lows, but things rebounded back to close to average after a few days. October 2020 ended up on the warm side overall. And yeah its a mixed bag. But given our climate history I would always take my chances with a chilly or stormy pattern in October, especially during a La Nina. It's usually a good sign at very least that cold air is getting an early start on the North American side of the pole.
  12. Well I mean for starters you said prolonged early season cold snap. The one last October was a pretty quick hitter that lasted just a few days. Last October was solidly warm. Early season cold snaps are by no means a guarantee for something good but they are not a kiss of death either. This century so far, 2017, 2013, 2009, 2008, 2006 and 2003 had chilly Octobers or a standalone cold airmass in October which lead to "goods" down the road. On the other hand 2019, 2002 and 2000 had October chill that didn't amount to much. As to how our mini-event last year ends up working out for thi
  13. Some of our biggest years have had October cold snaps, and some of our biggest duds have too. All things being equal they are a much better sign during -ENSO than +ENSO. And this winter isn't over yet... EDIT: -ENSO means La nina, Randy. This year is a La nina. That was meant to be a good thing.
  14. Shows others doing well. Didn’t you have a huge January storm last year while the rest of us got shafted? Odds are this will probably shift north and your area will get slammed again this time too, like usual. But for how much you whine and model ride the shades of gray you would think you get less snow than anyone else here.
  15. 12z Euro spits out an inch or two of snow for Portland and east county through Monday.
  16. Ander I think you just need to let the excitement of some below average temps overtake you
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