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Posts posted by Jesse
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Basically take whatever worst case nightmare scenario there is for our ecosystem and the most crooked, one sided departure from anything resembling climo that you can imagine and you have a great weather prediction tool lately.
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00z EPS took a pretty decisive step toward keeping the trough well offshore following the heatwave (which means the heatwave wouldn’t really end) And so it begins.
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17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:
I think it’s safe to say there might be some PATTERN VOLATILITY coming up. Definitely a big shift from a very blah July.
August sh*tbox!
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Looks like our crew will be going out around August 5. Not sure what fire yet, though.
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14 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:
Phoenix barely escaped the 70s today w/ a high of 81F under an unusually strong monsoonal upper-level low and associated stratoform precipitation. The mean of 77F today is 18.5F below average. Their high of 81F ties 7/25/1915 for coldest daily high, as well as the third coldest July high temperature on record.
Meanwhile, KSEA reached 85F today with plentiful sunshine. KEUG soared to 94F, KSLE to 93F, and KPDX to 91F.
I'm really hoping we can tap into some of that monsoonal goodness later in August. Don't even care if it gets hoomid.
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I remember going to the Hillsboro air show during a 100 degree day in late July 2015.
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1 minute ago, GobBluth said:
and cooler for the weekend.
Won't last. 90s through Elvis Presley's death day.
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Euro definitely trending hotter Thursday and Friday.
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#12 for PDX.
Just a few shy of the old 1981-2010 average and it’s not even August.
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10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:
Looks like a pretty traditional mid summer heatwave. Haven’t seen any prog, including today’s vile Euro run, that depicts any real offshore flow component as the ridge axis remains solidly to the east.
Didn’t realize vile had to include offshore flow.
Be nice if it rained. Some earlier runs were toying with the idea of some monsoonal moisture getting entrained on the back end of the traditional heat wave. I liked those runs.
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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:
Looks a little cooler than yesterday’s overall.
Some improvement out beyond hour 200 I guess. But the upcoming heat event starting late this week keeps getting stretched out. I’ll always take improvements in the mid range over the long range, because I am a weenie
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Shaping up to be a pretty vile 12z Euro run.
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I've come to the conclusion that engaging Flatiron is almost as pointless as engaging Tim.
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20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:
I am grateful temps have stayed mostly in the low 90s this month, better than 117! On the other hand, no real crash, just insane warm airmass moderated slightly by onshore flow. Places whose climates are influenced more by onshore flow (i.e. near the water or gaps), have seen their temps moderated more this month. Not a tough concept.
Yeah, the heat hasn’t really gone anywhere and has been incredibly consistent throughout the west this month, following the hellwave in late June. We’ve just lucked out in that the ridge axis has been to our east much of the time. The fact that many places on the west side are still seeing one of their warmest Julys on record despite having onshore flow much of the month sort of says it all.
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Hit our first 90 of the month yesterday at 90 degrees even. Today should be close again. Then should pick up at least another 3-4 later this week into the weekend.
Absolutely cannot wait for this summer to end, or really any summer these days. Will probably be waiting for awhile, though.
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The progression in the mid to long range on the 00Z GFS is nice. Too bad it has about as much a chance of verifying as Acer hardware figuring out the most efficient way to downvote en masse.
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1 hour ago, Acer said:
Haha, no whining from me, I'm just impressed that you were able to unearth 42 of my posts that you hadn't already downvoted. I probably haven't made 42 posts in the past year. For something as innocuous as downvotes you sure put a lot of effort into it.
Took me maybe two minutes.
#skills
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Decent day on the upward swing toward yet another heat event.
84/54
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Heads up guys, expect some whining from Winter (wiener?) dog soon
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5 hours ago, Cloud said:
Yeah……. I’m very sorry that you’re gonna end up warmer but I don’t live in said parts so I can’t relate. Facts are facts and W.Wa been running a 0 to +2 anomalies for July. And that’s about the only thing I care about.
2015 was a different set up with a different pattern. Sorry that it’s warmer this year.
Well if you only care about the small part of the region surrounding your house, don’t chime in on a debate regarding regional anomalies with incorrect statements like you did earlier. Sorry that it’s warmer everywhere else this year and wherever you live is largely unrepresentative of the region.
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2 hours ago, Cloud said:
Temperature anomalies should not be controversial at all this month as data have shown it’s been relatively closer to average at least for W.Wa.
This should no longer be a 2015 comparison and probably shouldn’t be to begin with. 2015 was an exceptional year and we should just let it be for what it was.
What we should be discussing is the ongoing drought conditions despite the closer to normal average temps. SEA is approaching top 5 all time, now at 38 days. Unfortunately forecast looks dry and warmer heading into August and the drought map looks about as grim as it’s ever been.
Yeah, no. It’s far from a stretch to say this summer is on track end up close to as hot as or even hotter than 2015 for many parts of the region, fog belt locations within five miles of Puget sound notwithstanding.
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The crazy thing is how insanely hot this month has already been in the western US, especially east of the Cascades and south of the Willamette Valley. The last week looks to really push things over the edge.
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It was clear it would get hot again at some point this summer. Our four weeks of onshore flow with temps just 2-4 degrees above average was pretty pleasant.
I guess the most one can hope for is it is a relatively short lived event with some sort of pattern change on the far side. Although we all know the odds are low of either being the case.
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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion
in West of the Rockies
Posted
At least it’s cloudy out this morning. Might be the last clouds we see for at least a few weeks, unless you count smoke.
Low of 59.