Jesse

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like SEA, OLM, and BLI all underperformed relative to forecast today. BLI didn't even make it out of the 60s.

Lots of overperforming temps down in the state you don’t consider part of the region, though. PDX hit 83, most forecasts had them around 80.

7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had a very warm airmass over us with that, the trough went way east. This is a completely different situation and you know that. 

One scenario that could really help the region out is what some people here live in absolute fear and dread of. A summer trough parking itself directly over the PNW for 3-4+ days with stratiform rain and drizzle at times.

The problem is baking under ridging and warm anomalies for months/weeks then getting these glancing blows from weak troughs that aren’t even able to fully move through the region. Just enough to stir things up without any of the benefits.

Big step back on the 00z Euro/EPS compared to the 12z run. That was probably our high water mark for midsummer.

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

It does look like the desert SW is getting some highly beneficial rain from an overperforming monsoon season. Hopefully in mid August-September as the jet re-strengthens we can get some of that advected up our way, perhaps in the form of wet thunderstorms. Such storms can save our region from a bad fire season (a la 2013, 2015, 2019)

The overperforming monsoon season to date down in the SW is one of the few pieces of good news on the weather front that I have managed to glean lately. It's an important one.

12 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Campfires are banned right now 

23 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Another one! 90F!!

The persistent warmth down south coupled with your penchant for exaggeration is going to result in a pretty crooked number come the end of September.

28 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like SLE may avoid it by a hair.

Baby steps.

86 sure is a popular high for PDX lately.

Still sitting at one 90 on the month for them, top end of 88 here. That could last at least another 5-7 days judging by the models. It’s the little things.

Really nice looking 12z Euro and EPS runs. Let’s hope we can see things get gradually watered down in the coming days.

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

In "winter" that's reserved for areas north of Lane County and east of the Cascades, then down to the rest of the nation.

Most of the nation had a warm winter.

50 minutes ago, sand dune said:

Climatology dictates that we are entering the hottest and driest part of the summer. Late June won't likely be repeated, but a deep trough entrenching over the NW isn't likely either.

Climatology didn’t seem to matter too much when we were struggling to get a drop of rain all spring, and hitting highs 40 degrees above average at the end of June. Heaven forbid we ever see anything even approaching the other side of the coin though. Might need a light jacket

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Of course. I wasn't serious.

Although he definitely posts more about OR than WA...or ID for that matter. Don't forget, he literally was the one who started a separate thread for OR back in the day.  He also earned the Mr. My Location title.

Why don’t you just go away for awhile. There must be some Colorado weather forums.

Appears to be a new smoke plume in the Oregon Cascades south of Detroit Lake this afternoon. Hopefully it’s in the middle Santiam Wilderness. Would be pretty neat if we could lose every acre of old growth in the western Cascades of Oregon to fire or drought by the end of this season. Got a nice head start last year.

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It has. He is assuming we see some average weather later next week which we may. As I mentioned earlier, July 2015 had 7 sub 80 highs at SLE. Something we have not seen yet this month. 

Yes.

PNW troughing force field in full effect on the 12z Euro through day 10.

Wont be too long before we’ve burned through all of our averagish weather points and are due for another regional heat event.

Thank GOD. The trough is weakening on the Euro. I was pissing my pants every hour on the hour for a minute there worrying it might actually rain.

#stolensummer

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Some members may recommend you grow a pair.

I’m still here ain’t I?

I don’t think I’ve ever whined about being downvoted, and I’ve gotten plenty, many deserved.

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Great example of playing up and downplaying as a fine art.

You spent many hours trying to paint that period in the most favorable light possible, shifting time frames and coming up with hypotheticals about how one event or another could have more impressive if only this variable had changed.  It just paints a very clear picture. 

Stop making things accurate/personal!!!!

12z ensembles look decent.

The lord is good.

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

There’s really no other place to discuss in detail the PNW climate is the main reason I’ve stayed. Im a weather nerd when it comes to the PNW and I need other people just as interested as I am to understand and discuss stuff with and there’s nowhere else online. I do like pretty much everyone on here even if I disagree with some of what’s said. 

Similar sentiment here (with a few well deserved exceptions) Glad you decided to come back.

12 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Driving north on I-5 into Vancouver is the worst I've seen it.  The fir trees are just red/orange.  Even the low growing/invasive ivy is dead and brown.  Of course the timing of the event at the very beginning of our dry season just means no real green-up until the fall rains.

I don’t know if the fall “green up?”  will do a whole lot. Like I said we won’t know the true toll until this spring. At that point we will have a good idea of what will come back for another season and what will just stay dead.

I fear a lot of things just might not come back at all considered the awful timing of the event following a record dry spring and hitting at a point where many plants and trees were already at the pinnacle of heat/drought stress after the last several years. Could change the look of the region pretty noticeably.

24 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Aren’t you the only one this spring/summer who’s threatened to pick up all his toys and leave?

There have been a few others (TacomaWx, etc) and I really can’t blame them.

25 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

May very well have been a 1 in 1000 year type event for some places, even with our warming climate.

The impact on vegetation tells that story pretty clearly. I am continually amazed how widespread it is. 

28 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Not sure if it was posted here or not, I don’t read every page, but I think Yale university wrote an article about it being the most anomalous heat wave ever recorded on earth. 

Sounds interesting. You should post it.

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lions and tigers and downvotes, oh my!