Clinton

This beast is still spinning

Models are in good agreement on a system this weekend that may produce some severe weather. Not much agreement with the storm system next week but on the backside some more chilly air looks to get pulled in.

April is going to start off a little cool here with near freezing temperatures the next 2 nights.

.60 of rain fell here yesterday and overnight, far less than I had hoped but better than nothing. Some aditional rain moving in this morning.

The tornado watch for my area has been canceled. Moderate rain has stabilized the air and temps are in the upper 60s. I'm hoping for at least an inch of rain out of this system.

Tornado watch in effect until 11. Hi res models indicating 1 to 3 inches if rain also.

The warm front across my area may be a focal point tonight. @ReedTimmerUSA Follow UPDATE: I see three different corridors of TORNADO POTENTIAL: 1. central/northern OK through southeastern KS into southwestern MO along southern surface low track. 2. Red River/southern OK at the nose of expanding low-level jet 3. warm frontal zone along I-70 in Missouri

Enhanced risk also moved to include KC.

The SPC has shifted the enhanced risk NW back over my area today. 3km NAM and HRRR both showing supercells in my area around 5 pm. I wouldn't be surprised if there's not an upgrade to a moderate risk from mby back into central Oklahoma later today. The GFS did a pretty good job showing this system phasing with the northern stream as it lifts toward the Lakes this could turn into a nice spring snowstorm for Ill, Wisc, and Mich. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected to occur over a broad region from the southern Plains, the Ozarks, portions of the Ohio Valley, and into a small part of the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes (some strong) are possible. The severe threat will peak this afternoon/evening in the southern Plains with the greatest threat for the Ohio Valley vicinity being the evening/overnight period. ...Synopsis... A large, positively tilted upper-level trough will shift east from the Southwest to the central Plains today. A mid-level shortwave trough, currently rounding the base of the large scale trough, will advance quickly northeast through the day today within a strong mid-level jet. This strong flow will overspread a broad, very moist warm sector and lead to severe weather across a large portion of the Southern Plains into the Midwest. A surface low is present across eastern Colorado this morning with a stationary front extending eastward across Kansas and Missouri and into the Ohio Valley. This surface low will drift slowly east through the day and the front is expected to lift north across Missouri as a warm front during the afternoon. ...North Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and the Ozarks... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected across much of the warm sector east of the dryline by mid-day today with temperatures warming into the 70s to low 80s. Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by the time ascent associated with the approaching trough overspreads the dryline. Once this occurs, expect rapid storm development along the dryline from southern Kansas to north Texas. Very strong shear, and mostly straight hodographs will support splitting supercells initially capable of large to potentially giant hail across a broad region from southwest Missouri to north Texas. Storm evolution off the dryline is still somewhat uncertain. Some guidance depicts more discrete development off the dryline and the potential for multiple rounds of supercells, while other CAM guidance waits until closer to 00Z to convect and leads to upscale growth and significant storm interaction within the first few hours. This evolution will have a significant impact on the longevity of the giant hail threat, but even with a messy storm mode, very large hail will remain a threat. Low-level shear is expected to be very weak for much of the day, which will limit the tornado threat. However, by the evening, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen with the ejecting wave and low-level shear will improve. The most favorable hodographs are expected across northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and southwest/central Missouri in a region where mature supercells will likely be ongoing. Therefore, a more favorable period for tornadoes and potentially strong tornadoes may exist from 23-03Z as the low-level shear improves. ...Eastern Missouri into southern Illinois... At least isolated supercells are expected to develop along the warm front from northern Missouri into central Illinois this afternoon and evening. Strong instability and very strong shear will support large to very large hail. In addition, storm motion is expected to be parallel to the surface front. Therefore, any supercells which can latch onto the warm front will have a higher tornado threat. However, more isolated storm coverage and uncertainty regarding storm evolution preclude higher tornado probabilities in this region. Later in the evening and into the overnight hours, storms from the west will move into the region with a threat for large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts. ...Ohio River Vicinity... Supercells from Illinois may continue east along the warm front into the evening across southern Indiana and potentially southern Ohio. Additional storms may also develop along this frontal zone with a primary threat of large hail. Weaker instability/shear should limit the overall threat from these storms compared to farther west. However, moderate instability and strong shear will support a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, a cluster of storms is expected to approach from the west. The overnight environment will continue to support a severe threat with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear in excess of 50 knots. There is still considerable uncertainty how this cluster will evolve. A cluster of supercells would pose a threat for all severe weather hazards, while a more organized MCS may support a greater severe wind and QLCS tornado threat. ...Central Texas... Strong instability is expected to develop ahead of a dryline across central Texas this afternoon. Confluence along the dryline and weak height falls should provide ample support for isolated to scattered storm development. Any storms which develop will be capable of very large to giant hail, given very strong instability and shear an expected supercellular storm mode.

That's what I'm hoping for here this evening. Most ponds are only half full or less and the streams are dry or stagnate.

18z Euro beefed up rainfall amounts for mby also looks like most of the sever weather will be just to my SE.

The SPC shifted the severe threat a little to the SE in my area tomorrow however Reed Timmer seems to think that eastern Kansas and western MO are right in the thick of things. The best news is that 1 to 3 inches of rain seems likely for my area Short-range models are showing a number of supercells capable of all hazards developing from the nose of the low-level jet and warm frontal zone near KC into northern MO and off the dry line in central/eastern Oklahoma. The models are trending a bit more significant with this severe weather event. The severe threat shifts east on Tuesday with another enhanced risk.

Most models are showing some phasing between the northern and southern streams but don't agree on the track of the low. The Euro remains the most progressive and the GFS is the furthest north and would produce some severe weather in my area. Regardless all models are showing some beneficial rainfall for mby.

The NAM isn't in reliable range yet but appears to be in line and phase like the GFS.

Lets hope this doesn't mess with the eclipse. Gary Lezak @glezak Here is the severe weather outlook from the #LRC methodology issued 2/15/2024 over 50 days before it will verify during the April 7-13 period. Hopefully it doesn't mess with the total eclipse on the 8th. @Weather2020had a 91% accuracy last year. #Eclipse2024

GFS and Euro still along ways apart. GFS showing a very wet and phased storm on it's most recent run.

It's going to be a beautiful day here with sunshine and highs in the upper 60's. I started a thread for the upcoming storm early next week that could bring a variety of weather to the Plains.

It's looking more and more likely that a strong storm will bring a threat of severe weather along with heavy rain and potentially a Winter side depending on the amount of phasing that occurs. Currently the GFS has the upper level low closing off over NE Iowa and the Euro is more progressive both solutions bring beneficial rains to the center of the nation where moisture is needed badly. Lets discuss.

Same here and it's been missing the last few years. I hope for a turnaround this season.

GFS trending toward a better looking storm at the end of the month with some severe weather possible. Reed Timmer, PhD @ReedTimmerUSA WATCHING the next storm system very closely for severe weather in the southern Plains through the Ohio River Valley around March 31-April 2! The GFS models have been shifting toward a more bulbous trough ejection with stronger low-level shear in the warm sector. This is still the early season, so issues with limited moisture can prevent these systems from reaching their ceiling in terms of tornado production, but this next system should have more ample moisture as the Gulf of Mexico was not as ravaged this recent system

The chances for rain to close out the month and to start April are not great for me but it is improving slightly. It's very much needed as the drought continues to intensify again over western MO. More snow for the northern members.

Here is how the precipitation fell and where it didn't. I received only a trace.

A hard freeze overnight and my current temperature is 24. Big warm up coming by the end of the week.

Same thing going on here, only a trace of rain out of the whole thing.

I have a marginal risk for some severe weather this evening with hail being the primary threat. I could get enough heating this afternoon in the dry slot for some big storms to fire up along the front. The Nam and GFS show some slushy snow possible early Tuesday morning for the KC area.