Kayla

Looks like it actually starts decreasing right at the end of the run.

The way things are playing out I’m also getting the sense that we see a white Halloween with temps below zero to end the month out here.

Are you...watering your...moss??

At least it looks like monsoon season is finally kicking in though!!

No doubt. I've never seen the fire/smoke season last as long as it has for the PNW. Especially unusual considering that the rest of the west is actually decently moist thanks to these cutoffs. We're living in an upside down world it seems.

First signs of cool offshore flow though.

Great find! Although there is really only one particular member that has been saying that only the summers have been warming. Do you have the link for that chart?

Looks like Bozeman ended up with 23.06" of precipitation for the water year which is a bit above the average of 20". Had a 51/45 day here yesterday with just 0.06" of rainfall. Already up to 0.42" on the day today though and it's still raining. currently 45F. It has been another really beneficial rainfall, especially for Central Montana.

There does appear to be a decent amount of mixing over the next 4-5 days. That on top of how ridiculous PDX is now those forecast low temps look pretty realistic to me.

12z Euro shows the GOA energy finally gets cutoff at least. Still pretty dry but could get chilly by mid month.

That is ridiculously hot for early October!

IMO, the summer climate has shifted so much in the PNW that summer time analogs are pretty much useless to predict winter weather.

Yeah dry Sept/Oct are not all that uncommon for the region. The last few years have been wet which helped drown the flames both literally and figuratively on here. This year we’re of course not seeing that after yet another torchy summer which seems to have everyone on edge!

I think this winter has a great chance for some real Arctic air for the region. Just might have to wait until Jan or Feb which is going to drive many people crazy!

Things are pretty similar to 1975 if we're looking at muIti year Niña. With that said, I think too much stock is put into "multi" year anything ENSO. This fall is behaving very similarly to 1988, 2000, 2017, etc