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Kayla

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Everything posted by Kayla

  1. Kayla
    Yeah it does look to be colder west of the divide with this shot which is atypical. Reminiscence of Feb 2014.
  2. Kayla
    Definitely looks like a cold air damning effect for that area with this.
  3. Kayla
    The airport saw -24F/-45F last December 22nd which is now the coldest day on record. -17F/-40F in my backyard but my Davis is only rated to -40F so it's possible that it was colder. We saw 700mb temps around -30C with that one last year. The latest GFS is showing -23C but the Euro gets down to -31C. Lots of -30 to -40F readings look to be a good bet at his point.
  4. Kayla
    Might end up seeing -40's out of this after all. Niño to boot...color me impressed.
  5. Kayla
    GFS is gonna be cold.
  6. Kayla
    We've got ourselves a good'ol fashioned OR and WA forum showdown!
  7. Kayla
    GFS shows snowfall with temps of -10F for 48hrs straight here. Yeah, it's probably fallen off its rocker.
  8. Kayla
    Cold out here was always a given. We always seem to find a way to see -50F departures now. I'm speaking about the western lowlands. The GFS has performed much better in the lead up to this event. Of course it's possible it has lost its way but constancy means something in my book. There a few on here that have been very dismissive of it and all I'm saying is that I wouldn't put any less stock in it compared to the Euro at this point.
  9. Kayla
    You mean like 3 days ago when the Euro/CMC were showing -50F here? The GFS has been steadfast and that has to mean something.
  10. Kayla
    I'm back in Bozeman so I'll be tracking the Arctic front on Thursday. Should be hit with a snow squall line here in about an hour so that outta be fun! I'm super excited to see what PDX sees tonight! Pretty classic setup for a nice little snow dump.
  11. Kayla
    I don't have a lot of confidence in the Euro at this point. It has been struggling with this pattern since the onset.
  12. Kayla
    12z GEM shows nearly an inch of precip with the boundary stalling right over Bozeman with temps -5F to -10F for about 36 hours straight. Would likely see 50:1 snow ratios with that outcome. If only!
  13. Kayla
    Never happens in Bozeman! I do kind of miss the nostalgic of everyone hunkering down when a big snowstorm is forecasted.
  14. Kayla
    Better pack his extra thick long johns!
  15. Kayla
    Looking like the typical model converge effect today. Still looking cold but maybe not quite as historic.
  16. Kayla
    D**n...that would be rather historic! I haven't been following the models very closely so I haven't been riding the ups and downs with ya'll. (just finishing up some pretty rigorous training for the new job) It's really shocking that we are looking at back to back years of an historic cold airmass.
  17. Kayla
    Nice! Snowing in Bozeman this morning as well. Looking like maybe 2-4" there by end of day. I've been in MN/WI over the past week where there is still ZERO snow on the ground. Pretty wild. Looks like I'll be heading home right before the Bozeman becomes the Arctic...again.
  18. Kayla
    While everything looks really promising I’m still hesitant to say that it’s coming. The way this season has played out I worry that the block gets undercut by the southern energy after the first trough on the 6th-7th. Like always, time will tell. I’m bouncing back and forth between Bozeman and Minneapolis for work these next few weeks so either way I’m probably going to freeze my butt off!
  19. Kayla
    Please gawd nooo! Fortunately all that land has already been snatched up by GVLT (Gallatin Valley Land Trust).
  20. Kayla
    Cold air finally broke here today, made it all the way up to 44F. Beautiful day though, big herd of Elk out back. Currently. 25F.
  21. Kayla
    I think this is true. Probably also an effect of a weakened pacific jet as well which of course hurts the west coast but a weakened jet actually keeps the intermountain west cooler due to less downsloping.
  22. Kayla
    MSU has been keeping records since 1892 and it has been very reliable. Of course late 1800's early 1900's is spotty but beyond that the consistency is quite good. Just did a quick check on the change from 1971-2010 to 1981-2020 30yr averages at Bozeman MSU and the average temp decreased from 44.8 to 44.7 degrees which is pretty remarkable considering the UHI effect is very significant. Snowfall average increased from 92.1" to 92.6" in that same period. So all and all, things have remained surprisingly stagnant.
  23. Kayla
    "somewhat immune" but I agree that is probably a bit of a stretch. I think your description better describes what I was getting at.
  24. Kayla
    No doubt. Definitely feels like borrowed time...this season has been a good reminder.
  25. Kayla
    I honestly I don't know what it is...wish I could say it was me! I move to a new location and it ends up being literally the only location in the country that has actually cooled this century and seen an increase of precipitation. I just complained about needing some snow but this area has been extremely fortunate and somewhat immune to climate change this century...thus far.
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