Front Ranger

Nice spot! Gate looks breachable, however.

Looks like a video game screenshot.

I've never even heard/read anything about "local climate change" and rarely even UHI in mainstream media. The messages that have been hammered home by most scientists (and activists) almost always are based around global warming - even if local stats and trends provide the reference.

Here it doesn't start until over 12,000 feet in general.

SLE, downtown Portland, and Seattle WFO also all within a degree of average.

Just the facts, man. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

Most spots are within a degree of normal. PDX once again representing the extreme in one direction.

If this April does end up well below normal for precip across the region, it will join the following years from the past 20: 2021, 2020, 2016, 2015, 2008, 2007, and 2004. Doesn't appear to be much correlation to following summer weather or fire season. Best matches ENSO wise would be 2016 and 2007.

On that side.

Nice soaking rain this am, picked up almost half an inch. The green up should start in earnest within a week or so.

Nothing big. But only a couple above normal days after today.

Funny, I'm headed down to Confluence Park today. The South Platte should be much higher and kinda look like a real river in a month or so.

GFS gives bountiful snowfall to the central Rockies over the coming 6 days. Good news for irrigation this summer throughout the Southwest...the upper Colorado river basin snowpack is already in pretty good shape, upcoming pattern will improve things further.

Get some lotion on those hands, amigo!

The Eugene/Springfield firestorm apocalypse may have to wait yet another year.

Nah, there has been conflation of the warm season and summer itself. It was more a point showing that I have no issue acknowledging the parts of the warm season that have been historically warm and dry. And back to the original point, that does not include April.

No doubt. Just like there's nuance in the spring trend talk (early vs late), same applies to overall warm season.

Sure. And I think you'd also agree with my point that the early part of the warm season hasn't seen near the level of warming as the heart of summer. September either, for that matter.

Also, you're looking mainly at precip here. Temps are a large part of the discussion as well. Where you draw the line matters, of course. 2015 and 2016 alter the discussion for May from 2017, and if you go back to 2013 or further it also changes.

The conversation started with someone talking about summer starting in April. That's where the stats shared have been focused.

February and March are the months with the strongest statistical correlation to ENSO. That period has run significantly below normal since 2017. Not wetter than normal, though.

That's what the facts support. Just like the facts support PNW springs being fairly close to normal overall in recent years. And they support the summer season, particularly July and August, being off the rails warm and dry.

The anomalies across western WA this month add further credence to the theory that something really has broken at OLM. It's been drier than normal with plenty of sun and clear skies at night. In the past, this would almost always lead to OLM having cooler anomalies than SEA and most other sites. But this April... OLM: +.7 BLI: -1.3 Seattle WFO: +.4 SEA: -1.0 BFI: +.3

You were talking about summer/the warm season starting in April. The stats I provided were for April. July/August are part of the warm season, and what's happened with those months recently is a far cry from the spring months.

For most the lowland PNW, 12z Euro shows 4 of the next 10 days warmer than normal, 4 below normal, and 2 right around normal.