Front Ranger

Things may or may not evolve like 2006-07, but if they do, keep in mind that these things take time and cold air can become available long before the PV breaks down, which happened for the West that winter. Also, there's more than one way to skin a cat.

Maybe you are interpreting widespread lowland snow differently than me. January 2002 produced widespread lowland snow. A lot of places in the lowlands saw snow. But not everyone! Do you think there is a huge difference between what the 0z GFS showed and January 2002?

Model riding often ends up like Final Destination 3 around here.

How things end up down the road has no bearing on this. It has nothing to do with your picking of nits. I'm not predicting anything. The fact that you're acknowledging widespread 1,000' snow levels agrees with my point: the pattern as depicted is close to supporting very low snow levels. There are enough legitimate disagreements on here without fabricated ones like this. Don't be lame. Just enjoy the ride like everyone else, and leave the condescension behind.

Actually, the models improved in the mid range as well. I didn't say anything outrageous, or disingenuous. Widespread lowland snowfall (hint: that doesn't mean everyone sees snow) would be very possible if temps ended up slightly colder, which would only require a couple tweaks. You've been quite the contrarian nitpicker lately.

0z GFS ensembles also improved moderately over 12z. Moving in the right direction tonight, we'll see if it continues tomorrow.

Of course you do. Just reporting the latest, good sir. The 0z models all improved, there's no disputing that. The encouraging thing for now is that we're seeing much better model agreement on the evolving pattern.

The 0z models are all showing more amplification offshore. Cool zonal but with cold air much closer than before, and would only take some minor tweaks of the pattern to produce widespread lowland snow.

Awesome. Does SLC suck at measuring snow? Or just way different because of location? Looks like they've gotten less than half that.

Some subtle difference from the GFS at hour 192, but really quite similar for 8 days out. Looking good.

Euro looks similar to GFS through 144 hrs, a bit more amplified with building offshore ridge.

Way to jinx the Euro!

But it did verify a little colder than forecast 8 days out. Ha!

I've said it before...they should just stop the individual runs around day 9-10. But the governments of the world are determined to torture weenies.

The main thing is the improvements before day 8.

NWS just upgraded winter weather advisory to winter storm warning here. Now saying 5-10" by tomorrow afternoon.

Alaska/Yukon gets frigid this run, that's for sure.

A redux 150 years in the making.

Not record warm. That's all that matters! 0z setting up to be a very chilly run. Suppressed jet and all. I'm thinking will lead to some thoughts of slushy car tops Christmas morning.

If the 0z GFS is correct, any warm up this weekend will be very short-lived.

I'm not sure what you're talking about. There is some griping on here every day...didn't seem like much today.

Deep, man.

Agreed. It is a bummer that things have yet to amplify with the overall pattern being so favorable. That being said, the 500mb pattern was stuck in a ridgy rut for an awfully long time until a few months ago. Maybe the atmosphere will get stuck again for awhile.

So glad we're talking about snow.

18z = yawn = good When the 18z is snowgasmic, it never happens, as we all know.