IAWXFan1

Weather doesn't read calendars luckily.

I received 6" in Northeast Iowa here from this clipper. Apparently we got lucky under a nice band that formed just north of Highway 20. Pretty decent for this type of system. Considering the forecast was 1-3" yesterday, this was a nice surprise. http://i.imgur.com/AJI8XsK.jpg

This system doesn't look very organized, but certainly something that I am watching. LaCrosse forecast office has been discussing the potential and they have seem to be more optimistic than what the models are showing. 18Z GFS shows some of the precipitation nearing my region. Even a slight deviation could bring this further south and plenty of days for more movements. Does anyone know if the ECMWF is showing anything more than what the American models are showing currently?http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_096_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Looks like some warmer temps first

Definitely a great day for Iowa in terms of models. This morning's discussion from DVN basically discounted the northern shift and discredited the idea of it moving so far North. Today's models have become more progressive in phasing sooner and definitely an increase in moisture.

Yes, most definitely. Pushes the heaviest precip all the way up to HWY 20 by 30 hours or so. On the 18Z NAM, it was near I80 at the same time.

LaCrosse AFD mentioned 10:1 ratios initially and then will increase to 15:1. However, this system depends a lot upon your location so I am not sure what it will be like in Illinois.

Sorry to ask this question, but could you please describe SHE? I can't think of anything besides SLP. Thank you.

I have just started looking at SREF's this season. So far, the mean has been higher than what we have received for each and every system, albeit a rather dull winter with very few storms. Does anyone know how well the SREF performs? I haven't used it more than a few month's, but so far it seems to overdo the precip quite often.

18Z NAM seems to really amplify the system by hour 39.

Looks like the NW piece of energy out in the Dakota's has more precip associated with it.

12Z NAM is coming in very similar to 06Z solution through 39 hours. Seems like DVN didn't like the idea of the system being this far north, so it will be interesting to see if there is any shift south with today's model runs.

Does anyone know the best maps to look at when trying to find the northern and southern streams? Thank you.

Are you defining the surface low, precipitation or another measure?

Tom, it looks like Des Moines is just to the south of the Jackpot area on the 12Z ECMWF. Certainly looks closest to the NAM. I would be on edge if I were in the Des Moines Metro area. GFS and RGEM still saying yes, but looks like others are on the line with the southern extent of the precip.