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  1. We're now entering the crucial window that will determine the momentum of the tropical circulation as we head deeper into 2014. Right now, a massive kelvin wave (possibly the strongest wave in history) is propagating across the tropical pacific as the climate system begins a significant transition away from the 1998-2012 regime. This wave similar to the persistent wind forcing/wave event that jump started the 1997-98 super Niño. However, I'm not sold that we're in for a strong Niño at this time. As I've been saying for a year now, I believe winter 2014-15 will feature a weak to moderate
  2. All: You might not be aware of this excellent summary of the weather pattern (e.g. indexes) after the facts: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/synoptic/2014/2 Note: This Synoptic Discussion describes recent weather events and climate anomalies in relation to the phenomena that cause the weather. These phenomena include the jet stream, fronts and low pressure systems that bring precipitation, high pressure systems that bring dry weather, and the mechanisms which control these features — such as El Niño, La Niña, and other oceanic and atmospheric drivers (PNA, NAO, AO, and others). The report
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