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We're now entering the crucial window that will determine the momentum of the tropical circulation as we head deeper into 2014. Right now, a massive kelvin wave (possibly the strongest wave in history) is propagating across the tropical pacific as the climate system begins a significant transition away from the 1998-2012 regime. This wave similar to the persistent wind forcing/wave event that jump started the 1997-98 super Niño. However, I'm not sold that we're in for a strong Niño at this time. As I've been saying for a year now, I believe winter 2014-15 will feature a weak to moderate
