Tom Posted February 19, 2022 Report Share Posted February 19, 2022 As if I'm not being preoccupied tracking the big storm that's going to hit the Upper MW/GL's early next, I thought we should start a thread for next storm system coming out of of the deep south into the OHV in back-to-back fashion. Iirc, this will be a first for the season tracking multiple storm systems in separate threads....this should keep our members busy this week! Let's discuss.... The trends of late are showing this system developing into a slowly evolving deep southern wave across the Texarkana Region and tracking up thru the OHV with a stout Banana HP to our north. 0z EPS/GEFS are both suggesting this could end up being a good opportunity for a "share the wealth" scenario stretching into NE/KS all the way east into the Lower Lakes... 0z GEFS looking better... 0z Canadien... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2022 0z EPS members... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 19, 2022 Report Share Posted February 19, 2022 6z GFS large snow field 24hr map 6z GEFS 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 19, 2022 Report Share Posted February 19, 2022 Sadly and not surprisingly the Euro shifted towards the GFS and significantly reduced the snow amounts up this way. Heavier amounts are further south and east. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 19, 2022 Report Share Posted February 19, 2022 The ICON has a large swath of snow while taking the storm through the Ohio Valley. The ICON did reasonably well with the last storm. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 19, 2022 Report Share Posted February 19, 2022 17 minutes ago, Clinton said: The ICON has a large swath of snow while taking the storm through the Ohio Valley. The ICON did reasonably well with the last storm. GFS is way south. But it's the GFS and it's terrible. Icon did better with the last storm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 19, 2022 Report Share Posted February 19, 2022 The suddenly, more reliable than the GFS, Canadian model is looking good still for this storm. Widespread 4-7” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 19, 2022 Report Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 19, 2022 Report Share Posted February 19, 2022 The early week storm will be shoving the surface front well to the south and east. Deep moisture will have trouble getting back nw into Iowa late in the week. It may be a 1-4" event for eastern Iowa. Once again, locations south and east have a better shot at heavier snow. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 19, 2022 Report Share Posted February 19, 2022 Euro shifted NW. overall not as wet though as it had been showing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 18z Euro ensembles came in a bit wetter this evening. 18z GEFS is a bit more south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z Euro ensembles came in a bit wetter this evening. 18z GEFS is a bit more south Def your guys’ year. What’s your YTD totals? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, centralweather44 said: Def your guys’ year. What’s your YTD totals? Mine is 16 inches 15 have fallen in Feb. 18 is average for the year so it's been a good month. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 45 minutes ago, Clinton said: Mine is 16 inches 15 have fallen in Feb. 18 is average for the year so it's been a good month. About like our mid jan-mid feb last year. Won’t lie as yes, we had higher totals, but track was up our way last year, this year it’s south. Just crazy how narrow that band can get, and a matter of miles makes all the difference. Our snow removal equipment has sat idle minus the two skiffs of snow. At this rate I would prefer to just move onto spring work, but also know we need the moisture. Actually watered the trees and lawn today. Right now I’d love 1” of slow steady rain. Let’s see how the next two weeks play out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 0z GEFS is SE tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 0z Euro has been suggesting this to come in 2 waves....the 2nd stronger wave is looking better and I think that's where the GFS may be having issues. The 0z UKIE is showing something similar to the Euro but farther SE. Would like to see this all come out in one piece to deliver a bigger hit region wide. Nonetheless, it does look like this will be a cold snowstorm and a longer duration snowfall event with winds off the lake that could enhance totals for SE WI/NE IL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 0z EPS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 0z NWS Blend... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 It's difficult to get excited about a 2-3" snowfall followed by yet another week of nothing. Active patterns just aren't delivering for my area this winter (since mid January). 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 6z GFS and GEFS. The GEFS came in more juiced and a little further north. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 6z Euro Control very wet at 10:1. Euro ensembles shifted further NW 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 12z ICON continues to be further NW and stronger. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 12z GFS also further north this run. Also picking up on some les. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 12z GEFS with another jump NW 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: 12z GFS also further north this run. Also picking up on some les. It has been one of the driest winters in quite some time here in SE WI. Only snow still on the ground is on north facing slopes. I think LES is our only hope for the rest of the winter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 Meh, this thing looks weak regardless of where it tracks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 Euro and GFS once again not in sync at all. The euro has a band of 3-6” over eastern Iowa. Gfs has an inch. Strength and placement are just not aligned at all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 NWS Hastings afternoon disco. This pathetic excuse for a winter continues to kick us in the rear. My goodness. Wednesday through Thursday... The main upper trough will push out into the plains, but is expected to come out as an open wave with most of the better moisture once again shunted well southeast of our forecast area It will remain cold so the precipitation type will be snow, but moisture will be limited so snowfall amounts will likely again be rather light and just more of a nuisance. Friday through Sunday... The cold air should begin to moderate with highs in the 20s by Friday and then 30s and 40s by the weekend. No additional precipitation is expected after Thursday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 18z GFS develops a larger snowfield further east, lays down decent snows from mby and points east. GFS is the furthest SE models as of now, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 0z GFS gets a little snow into KC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 And the Euro nearly eliminates this storm now. Bring on spring please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 Sheesh, the models are weak tonight. We may end up with another dusting. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 I'm about ready to throw the towel in on this winter. My mom's cousin lives in Wellman, IA and she already has tulips up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 Lol GEFS mean is less than 1" for Lincoln until like hour 300. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 0z Euro...what a crappy run...the only "good" thing about this system is the likelihood of a decent LES/Lehs signal for SE WI/NE IL. Need this to phase a little better in future runs but that is not looking good ATM. If this system ends up as forecast, it'll be the 3rd FEB storm to hit the same areas....mind you, the same areas which experience a "Snow Drought" till end of JAN. I guess nature wanted to fill in the snow holes over in the eastern Sub this month....INDY and parts of IL had basically Zero snow till the GHD-3 storm. 0z GEFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 0z EPS caved towards the GEFS (again?) now that we are inside 3 days....I swear, the GEFS have done a good job this season sniffing out the overall. snow shield in the D5+ range. They have always been SE and steady with the main snow band across MO/C IL/IN. The 0z EPS had been NW since yesterday's 12z run and tonight it flipped weaker and SE across the MW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 Looking like my decadal ice storm is finally going to make it's grand entrance. Starting bid for ice totals are opening with the GFS throwing out .44"...... The others combine to make me want to quit looking at weather models. Lol. Saw some jabs at up to 2.00". If so, I'm glad spring is coming. My trees were all so neat looking again finally, too. But like I told someone back in January. "Look at everything. It's too perfect. Just too good." Also, we skipped a decade. 01/27/2009 was the monster here. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 This storm looks to produces enough snow to get me to my season average. 6z GEFS would give Detroit, Chicago and myself a 2-4 inch snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 26 minutes ago, Clinton said: This storm looks to produces enough snow to get me to my season average. 6z GEFS would give Detroit, Chicago and myself a 2-4 inch snow. ORD needs just under 5” to hit 30” for the season…would be nice to be able to hit that mark by MAR 1st. Let’s hope we can see better trends by tomorrow when the energy is over the West Coast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 12z GFS much better 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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