CentralNebWeather Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 12Z GFS trying to tease me with a band just to my Southwest. Has my county at 3-5" from north to south and the heavier band not far away. I guess it is something. Time will tell, but not holding my breath that anything occurs. Canadian says 1" tops, Ukie has 2". 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 The GFS and Euro have completely flip flopped solutions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 GFS has quite a wide area of light to moderate snow with this system. I thought it was gonna completely miss me.....which it very well could yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12Z GFS trying to tease me with a band just to my Southwest. Has my county at 3-5" from north to south and the heavier band not far away. I guess it is something. Time will tell, but not holding my breath that anything occurs. Canadian says 1" tops, Ukie has 2". 19 minutes ago, james1976 said: GFS has quite a wide area of light to moderate snow with this system. I thought it was gonna completely miss me.....which it very well could yet. It has a bit of an overrunning event. I wish all the energy would come out in 1 piece. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 12Z Euro. Looks similar to most other models in this area, but less than GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 Dry as hell, and the last chance at a storm for awhile. Maybe a surprise or 2 in March, April? , but even now it's looking warmer in the long range. This might be nearing the end of the season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 I guess a couple inches is better than nothing. At the very least it looks like some of this will fall during daylight hours. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 83* and very dry out there. Humidity at 38* In 48 hrs it will hit a low of 23 with rain, ice, snow mix. How crazy is that? Just another odd week in a rather odd winter. 3 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 18z GEFS with a bump in totals for some. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 72 for the High tomorrow before it barrels down to 32 in the afternoon. We get a lot of these in the late winter as springlike weather tries to sneak in early. Well, it beats being bored!! 1 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 0z RGEM and GFS in agreement for a widespread light snow event with a narrow band of higher totals. 0z GFS 0z RGEM 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z RGEM and GFS in agreement for a widespread light snow event with a narrow band of higher totals. 0z GFS 0z RGEM Looks like this will be an advisory event with widespread 1-3 inches 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z RGEM and GFS in agreement for a widespread light snow event with a narrow band of higher totals. 0z GFS 0z RGEM I do fairly well on the GFS. Most other models are minimal. NWS Hastings says 1” tops. Not expecting anything, so I won’t be disappointed if nothing materializes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: Looks like this will be an advisory event with widespread 1-3 inches I need 5 to get to 20 inches for the month, so I'm pulling for it lol. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: I do fairly well on the GFS. Most other models are minimal. NWS Hastings says 1” tops. Not expecting anything, so I won’t be disappointed if nothing materializes. Dry air may be the problem, maybe some will make it to the ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 0z GEFS nudged NW better for KC. EAX mentioned ratios being 15:1 or better, could be a decent snow for some. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 hours ago, Clinton said: I need 5 to get to 20 inches for the month, so I'm pulling for it lol. The eastern ag belt and Sub has done very well this month....nasso much in the central/western ag belt... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 0z Euro....pretty much on the page as the GFS..... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 06z GFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 This part of the LRC produced significant snows in Cycle 2 for the SW and it looks to deliver the goods up in the mountains again... This is exactly what the mountains ordered from Mother Nature into the Rockies of CO...esp near Durango/Telluride... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 No significant changes with placement on the 6z GEFS but some ensembles are producing some bigger snows. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 hours ago, Tom said: The eastern ag belt and Sub has done very well this month....nasso much in the central/western ag belt... Brutal. That’s a large swath of land at basically 0. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 Light snow fell all night here. There are some places the grass is covered, and other places with nothing as the strong winds are whipping up the snow. I would say a rough estimate of 1/2" seems about right. Love when the snow whips down the street. NWS Hastings a little more optimistic this morning of a couple of inches from Wednesday night through Thursday morning. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 hours ago, Tom said: 06z GFS... If I get the Stasch formula "last minute bump north", this could be good over here 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, jaster220 said: If I get the Stasch formula "last minute bump north", this could be good over here Should be cold enough wherever it does end up snowing. My new snow blower arrives Friday. I broke down and bought an electric one with cord. Mid-size driveway. Never got my one gas toro fixed this winter. Haven't needed it! So hopefully I get enough to test it out before Spring. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 Haven’t seen very many EURO, CMC, or NAM maps being posted for this one… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, winterfreak said: Haven’t seen very many EURO, CMC, or NAM maps being posted for this one… They fact that they are relatively weak and dry is probably why. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, winterfreak said: Haven’t seen very many EURO, CMC, or NAM maps being posted for this one… 6z Euro Control and Mean are further south and weaker. 10:1 maps 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 It's too bad. Almost a perfect set up. Cold air established. Low pressure coming from Texas. It's almost like half the energy gets held back and keeps this storm from being stronger. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, tStacsh said: They fact that they are relatively weak and dry is probably why. I know… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 9z SREF in line with the GEFS on placement only weaker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: GFS is trying to give me 6 inches of snow. I'll be pleasantly shocked if that happens. From Garys blog this morning: We had a similar issue with the last storm. In that one we wondered if the storm would stretch out and weaken too fast and lower snow totals, or would it hold together. We made the accurate prediction of it holding together. As it passed by it stretched out and weakened rapidly. This time we have similar issues, but instead of it having to hold together, we will be wondering if it will strengthen just a little bit. Seems to me there is a possibility of this strengthening overhead which would be good for us and real good for those further NE. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 12z FV3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z FV3 There is those bands of snow that keep showing up. Where those occur will make a big difference in a short distance. This map again shows that pink band coming up to my county. GFS also has shown it. Many other models don't have anywhere near this amount. Will be fun to watch in the next 2 days. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z FV3 This is steadily moving North each run. At first St Louis was in the bullseye and now they might not even see a flake. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, CentralNebWeather said: There is those bands of snow that keep showing up. Where those occur will make a big difference in a short distance. This map again shows that pink band coming up to my county. GFS also has shown it. Many other models don't have anywhere near this amount. Will be fun to watch in the next 2 days. It will be. The NAM barely has a dusting here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just looked out the window here in leawood and we have Light snow falling and a very light dusting. This wasn’t in the forecast for today! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 GFS with widespread 1-3" in Iowa. Not sure if they'll issue an advisory for this or not. It doesn't really meet criteria, but it's been a slow winter, so maybe. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 GEFS are SE with precip. OP GFS has literally no support from any other guidance. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 12z CMC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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