Clinton Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 Nothing great but the 12z Euro does have a little stronger wave. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 Euro control. Tack on about another inch to get to Kuchera ratios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 DVN going with 1-2" and isolated 3" totals. Snow will overspread the area from southwest to northeast on Thursday and end from southwest to northeast Thursday night. Since the low track is south of the area precipitation would be in the form of all snow. However I cannot fully rule out a brief period of sleet or freezing rain when the precipitation initially starts. The time frame of the relatively higher snowfall rates look to occur Thursday afternoon into evening. Right now it looks like a general 1-2 inch snowfall. Some isolated 3 inch amounts cannot be ruled out. While the overall snowfall rates will be low, the Thursday evening commute will be impacted. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 18z GFS has been consistent in giving KC a nice snow and laying down a heavier band from mby into southern Mich. Getting close to @CentralNebWeatherwith a heavier band 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 RAP starting to come on board 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 I better dust off the leaf blower 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 22, 2022 Report Share Posted February 22, 2022 47 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z GFS has been consistent in giving KC a nice snow and laying down a heavier band from mby into southern Mich. Getting close to @CentralNebWeatherwith a heavier band Has been showing up for many runs in a row. NWS Hastings thinks GFS is overdone and going with much lower amounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 15 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Has been showing up for many runs in a row. NWS Hastings thinks GFS is overdone and going with much lower amounts. My office mentioned dry air being a problem. For mby the GEFS has cut totals 2 runs in a row so probably won't get much here either. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 DTX calling this "sub-WWA level event". Oh well, the 50's and showers today, while messy does have me thinking spring again. Cold after this is going to be worse. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 19 minutes ago, Clinton said: My office mentioned dry air being a problem. For mby the GEFS has cut totals 2 runs in a row so probably won't get much here either. Wonder if that is what they’re thinking. They typically never go with the model that shows the most for any storm. Not me just wishing for more, just an odd thing I’ve noticed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 NAM is still dry as a bone up this way. GFS is probably cracked out again. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 Short term models are favoring northern iowa with the heaviest snow in the state Thursday. 2-4” potentially there. 1-3” elsewhere. The whole state looks to get some snow though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 0z Euro...weenie band thru C NE @CentralNebWeather...geeze, the Euro really crapped out for KC and @Clinton... 0z GEFS are on another planet compared to the Euro Op.... 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 06z NWS Blend....its been pretty consistent....general 2-5" across IA/IL/WI/N IN/S MI...maybe localized 5"+ near lakeside counties in SE WI/NE IL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 EAX not buying the GEFS, looks like dry air will win out in MO and Kan. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 hours ago, Tom said: 0z Euro...weenie band thru C NE @CentralNebWeather...geeze, the Euro really crapped out for KC and @Clinton... 0z GEFS are on another planet compared to the Euro Op.... Here is the wienie band on the 06z Euro. Has my county at 3". Pretty narrow area that could easily shift and miss me entirely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 Forecast....complicated. Lets go! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: EAX not buying the GEFS, looks like dry air will win out in MO and Kan. It sure looked like you would have a decent amount come through. NWS Hastings not buying the GFS. They are now saying 1/2 - 1 1/2" in my area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 25 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: Forecast....complicated. Lets go! Yikes! Hunker down my friend…what are the locals saying? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 There is that wienie band again on the 12z HRRR @Tom 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said: Forecast....complicated. Lets go! It is indeed complicated. I’ve decided to boil it down to: “Sleet followed by freezing drizzle, with further threats freezing rain and ice.” That north wind is seriously cold. When it starts to fall it’s going hit with real attitude. We’re all braced for it here. Stay safe up there Clint. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 hours ago, Tom said: Yikes! Hunker down my friend…what are the locals saying? If winter had an annoying sound effect to remind me it wasn't snowing, (although its 17 bleeping degrees outside); it would be the sound of sleet bouncing off my windows. Luckily, most forecasters are changing to sleet/snow with this round, freezing rain south so its kinda fluid at the moment. (Just not this darn rain...lmao) 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 Temps are going nowhere today 12 degrees with flurries. Looks like this storm will get it's act together for you guys up by the lakes. Hi-Res models look good and the lakes may pitch in as well. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 I'm thinking 1/2" might be optimistic by the NWS. After this whiff, spring returns before the next potentially big system that is showing up around the 6th-8th of March. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 55 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: I'm thinking 1/2" might be optimistic by the NWS. After this whiff, spring returns before the next potentially big system that is showing up around the 6th-8th of March. Latest models don't look too good for me. GFS really backed off. Wash, rinse, repeat. We have to hope those systems in March can verify, but won't get my hopes up. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Latest models don't look too good for me. GFS really backed off. Wash, rinse, repeat. We have to hope those systems in March can verify, but won't get my hopes up. I look forward to a summer of $5/gal gas and eating bowls of weevils. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 Pivotal has EPS data now. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 18z HRRR coming in stronger in eastern Iowa. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, gimmesnow said: I look forward to a summer of $5/gal gas and eating bowls of weevils. Try more like $7/gal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 I know it's just a minor event but it's kind of amusing to see models have snow over western NE, falls apart over southeast NE, and then it gets its act together again in IA lol. 2 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 41 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: I know it's just a minor event but it's kind of amusing to see models have snow over western NE, falls apart over southeast NE, and then it gets its act together again in IA lol. This winter has sucked so bad in southern Wisconsin I was snowboarding on 2 inches of sleet and snow on horrible ice base and having fun. The standards have been lowered for a lot of us. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 24, 2022 Report Share Posted February 24, 2022 FINALLY!! They've fired the GRR office and given SWMI to IWX Quote FXUS63 KGRR 232322 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI Issued by National Weather Service Northern Indiana 622 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022 (if only) 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 24, 2022 Report Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 hours ago, snowstorm83 said: I know it's just a minor event but it's kind of amusing to see models have snow over western NE, falls apart over southeast NE, and then it gets its act together again in IA lol. Par for the course this winter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 24, 2022 Report Share Posted February 24, 2022 Maybe James and I can score a few inches from this. Doesn't look too promising for anything after that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 24, 2022 Report Share Posted February 24, 2022 Most models are suggesting there will be a nw-se band of slightly better totals across Iowa. Many of the CAMs place it just sw of Cedar Rapids, with lighter snow here. The GFS places it right through CR. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 24, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2022 The lake has been delivering on/off snow showers since last evening. I just got back from ORD picking up my mom from the airport and there were bursts of heavier snow showers. I'm encouraged to see this as it will bode well for better Lehs later this afternoon into tomorrow night. Some of the CAM's have pockets of 6"+ near the lake...would love for ORD to score at least 5" to hit the 30" mark for the season. 0z Euro...looking good for SE MI... The CAM's are lining up pretty well with the Euro... 06z HRRR... @jaster220 @Niko 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 24, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2022 0z NWS Blend....boy, that Lehs/LES signal is looking interesting... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 24, 2022 Report Share Posted February 24, 2022 Advisory for 2-3 inches, but point forecast up to 6? I will eat my hat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 24, 2022 Report Share Posted February 24, 2022 This looks like a 3-6in snowfall widespread here in S MI (north of Detroit), roughly from Macomb to Romeo. Detroit is looking at 2-4" or maybe slightly more. Looks like a decent event and a nighttime one as most of the snow falls in the evening and early Friday. It will be a cold snowstorm also. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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