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2/23 - 2/25 S Plains/OHV Cutter


Tom

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DVN going with 1-2" and isolated 3" totals.

 

Snow will overspread the area from southwest to northeast on
Thursday and end from southwest to northeast Thursday night.

Since the low track is south of the area precipitation would be in
the form of all snow. However I cannot fully rule out a brief period
of sleet or freezing rain when the precipitation initially starts.

The time frame of the relatively higher snowfall rates look to occur
Thursday afternoon into evening.

Right now it looks like a general 1-2 inch snowfall. Some isolated 3
inch amounts cannot be ruled out. While the overall snowfall rates
will be low, the Thursday evening commute will be impacted.
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47 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z GFS has been consistent in giving KC a nice snow and laying down a heavier band from mby into southern Mich.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Getting close to @CentralNebWeatherwith a heavier band

snku_acc.us_c.png

Has been showing up for many runs in a row. NWS Hastings thinks GFS is overdone and going with much lower amounts. 

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15 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Has been showing up for many runs in a row. NWS Hastings thinks GFS is overdone and going with much lower amounts. 

My office mentioned dry air being a problem.  For mby the GEFS has cut totals 2 runs in a row so probably won't get much here either. 

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DTX calling this "sub-WWA level event". Oh well, the 50's and showers today, while messy does have me thinking spring again. Cold after this is going to be worse. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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19 minutes ago, Clinton said:

My office mentioned dry air being a problem.  For mby the GEFS has cut totals 2 runs in a row so probably won't get much here either. 

Wonder if that is what they’re thinking. They typically never go with the model that shows the most for any storm. Not me just wishing for more, just an odd thing I’ve noticed. 

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

0z Euro...weenie band thru C NE @CentralNebWeather...geeze, the Euro really crapped out for KC and @Clinton...

2.png

 

1.png

 

0z GEFS are on another planet compared to the Euro Op....

image.png

Here is the wienie band on the 06z Euro.  Has my county at 3".  Pretty narrow area that could easily shift and miss me entirely.  

Euro 2 23.png

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1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Forecast....complicated.

Lets go!

 

Screenshot_20220223-071700_Chrome.jpg

It is indeed complicated.   
 

I’ve decided to boil it down to:

“Sleet followed by freezing drizzle, with further threats freezing rain and ice.”

That north wind is seriously cold.   When it starts to fall it’s going hit with real attitude.   We’re all braced for it here.
Stay safe up there Clint.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Yikes!  Hunker down my friend…what are the locals saying?

If winter had an annoying sound effect to remind me it wasn't snowing, (although its 17 bleeping degrees outside); it would be the sound of sleet bouncing off my windows.

Luckily, most forecasters are changing to sleet/snow with this round, freezing rain south so its kinda fluid at the moment. (Just not this darn rain...lmao)

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55 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I'm thinking 1/2" might be optimistic by the NWS. After this whiff, spring returns before the next potentially big system that is showing up around the 6th-8th of March.

HRRR.png

3kNAM.png

NAM.png

gfs.png

Latest models don't look too good for me.  GFS really backed off.  Wash, rinse, repeat.  We have to hope those systems in March can verify, but won't get my hopes up.

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I know it's just a minor event but it's kind of amusing to see models have snow over western NE, falls apart over southeast NE, and then it gets its act together again in IA lol. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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41 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

I know it's just a minor event but it's kind of amusing to see models have snow over western NE, falls apart over southeast NE, and then it gets its act together again in IA lol. 

This winter has sucked so bad in southern Wisconsin I was snowboarding on 2 inches of sleet and snow on horrible ice base and  having fun. The standards have been lowered for a lot of us.

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FINALLY!!

They've fired the GRR office and given SWMI to IWX

Quote
FXUS63 KGRR 232322
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
Issued by National Weather Service Northern Indiana
622 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

(if only)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Most models are suggesting there will be a nw-se band of slightly better totals across Iowa.  Many of the CAMs place it just sw of Cedar Rapids, with lighter snow here.  The GFS places it right through CR.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The lake has been delivering on/off snow showers since last evening.  I just got back from ORD picking up my mom from the airport and there were bursts of heavier snow showers.  I'm encouraged to see this as it will bode well for better Lehs later this afternoon into tomorrow night.  Some of the CAM's have pockets of 6"+ near the lake...would love for ORD to score at least 5" to hit the 30" mark for the season.  

0z Euro...looking good for SE MI...

1.png

 

The CAM's are lining up pretty well with the Euro...

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

06z HRRR... @jaster220 @Niko 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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This looks like a  3-6in snowfall widespread here in S MI (north of Detroit), roughly from Macomb to Romeo. Detroit is looking at 2-4" or maybe slightly more. Looks like a decent event and a nighttime one as most of the snow falls in the evening and early Friday. It will be a cold snowstorm also.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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