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2/23 - 2/25 S Plains/OHV Cutter


Tom
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5 hours ago, Tom said:

0z Euro...weenie band thru C NE @CentralNebWeather...geeze, the Euro really crapped out for KC and @Clinton...

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0z GEFS are on another planet compared to the Euro Op....

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Here is the wienie band on the 06z Euro.  Has my county at 3".  Pretty narrow area that could easily shift and miss me entirely.  

Euro 2 23.png

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1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Forecast....complicated.

Lets go!

 

Screenshot_20220223-071700_Chrome.jpg

It is indeed complicated.   
 

I’ve decided to boil it down to:

“Sleet followed by freezing drizzle, with further threats freezing rain and ice.”

That north wind is seriously cold.   When it starts to fall it’s going hit with real attitude.   We’re all braced for it here.
Stay safe up there Clint.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Yikes!  Hunker down my friend…what are the locals saying?

If winter had an annoying sound effect to remind me it wasn't snowing, (although its 17 bleeping degrees outside); it would be the sound of sleet bouncing off my windows.

Luckily, most forecasters are changing to sleet/snow with this round, freezing rain south so its kinda fluid at the moment. (Just not this darn rain...lmao)

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Well, this is looking to end up being a pretty minor deal for KC.  And the foreseeable future looks kinda lame.  Disappointing after some of the models had been painting a snowy picture with a train of panhandle hooks.  I hope KC can at least wind up with an average winter.  We only need about 3 more inches to get there IMBY, and about 5 up at the airport. 

 

 

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55 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I'm thinking 1/2" might be optimistic by the NWS. After this whiff, spring returns before the next potentially big system that is showing up around the 6th-8th of March.

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Latest models don't look too good for me.  GFS really backed off.  Wash, rinse, repeat.  We have to hope those systems in March can verify, but won't get my hopes up.

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11 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Latest models don't look too good for me.  GFS really backed off.  Wash, rinse, repeat.  We have to hope those systems in March can verify, but won't get my hopes up.

I look forward to a summer of $5/gal gas and eating bowls of weevils.

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I know it's just a minor event but it's kind of amusing to see models have snow over western NE, falls apart over southeast NE, and then it gets its act together again in IA lol. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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41 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

I know it's just a minor event but it's kind of amusing to see models have snow over western NE, falls apart over southeast NE, and then it gets its act together again in IA lol. 

This winter has sucked so bad in southern Wisconsin I was snowboarding on 2 inches of sleet and snow on horrible ice base and  having fun. The standards have been lowered for a lot of us.

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FINALLY!!

They've fired the GRR office and given SWMI to IWX

Quote
FXUS63 KGRR 232322
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
Issued by National Weather Service Northern Indiana
622 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

(if only)

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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4 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

I know it's just a minor event but it's kind of amusing to see models have snow over western NE, falls apart over southeast NE, and then it gets its act together again in IA lol. 

Par for the course this winter

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Most models are suggesting there will be a nw-se band of slightly better totals across Iowa.  Many of the CAMs place it just sw of Cedar Rapids, with lighter snow here.  The GFS places it right through CR.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The lake has been delivering on/off snow showers since last evening.  I just got back from ORD picking up my mom from the airport and there were bursts of heavier snow showers.  I'm encouraged to see this as it will bode well for better Lehs later this afternoon into tomorrow night.  Some of the CAM's have pockets of 6"+ near the lake...would love for ORD to score at least 5" to hit the 30" mark for the season.  

0z Euro...looking good for SE MI...

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The CAM's are lining up pretty well with the Euro...

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snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

06z HRRR... @jaster220 @Niko 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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This looks like a  3-6in snowfall widespread here in S MI (north of Detroit), roughly from Macomb to Romeo. Detroit is looking at 2-4" or maybe slightly more. Looks like a decent event and a nighttime one as most of the snow falls in the evening and early Friday. It will be a cold snowstorm also.

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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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I shouldn't be surprised, but the models totally whiffed in this area.  Not a flake.  As late as last night's NWS Hastings disco, they were calling for up to 1 1/2" of snow.  GFS did horribly.  Canadian always had it dry for days, they nailed it.  Short term models started trending drier last evening, and continued through this morning.  Got my hopes up, and again we were missed.  In this entire great setup this week, we got about 1/2" bringing our unbelievable yearly snowfall to a whopping 7".  Wow.  

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Models have trended toward 1-2" for my area, so pretty meager.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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We have a gentle snow falling this morning that has whitened everything back up to a 1/2" or so. Funny, we have had winter storms warnings end up like this and we don't even have an advisory here this morning...lol

snowpic.thumb.jpg.efbe042f4dcd440ed773bc4600ee6b28.jpg

 

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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23 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

We have a gentle snow falling this morning that has whitened everything back up to a 1/2" or so. Funny, we have had winter storms warnings end up like this and we don't even have an advisory here this morning...lol

snowpic.thumb.jpg.efbe042f4dcd440ed773bc4600ee6b28.jpg

 

Same here with frz drizzle and sleet this morning and now snow, roads are slick lot of accidents and no WWA.

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5 hours ago, Niko said:

This looks like a  3-6in snowfall widespread here in S MI (north of Detroit), roughly from Macomb to Romeo. Detroit is looking at 2-4" or maybe slightly more. Looks like a decent event and a nighttime one as most of the snow falls in the evening and early Friday. It will be a cold snowstorm also.

Prolly NOT down here in the Metro per DTX

The usual P-type issues that plague far SEMI with every storm coming into play. Highest totals north of M-59 (SHOCKER!)

Quote

The better moisture and thus higher QPF values are expected to
reside along and south of I69 with values ranging between .20 to .30
inches by the end of the event. Models continue to show a shallow
dgz between 600 to 500 mb with a lofty "warm" nose down to the near
surface, bringing about riming concerns
which would lower snow
ratios. Additionally, an elevated dry slot will also start to strip
moisture away
from the DGZ around 02-03Z through 09Z, which will
hamper snow ratios further and may even bring a period of freezing
drizzle.

Looking forward to my 1" in-coming

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Nice les power falling all morning at alpine valley but the warm and rain ruined the base from before pretty bad. If it wasn't for that heat and rain last Monday, today would be amazing, but it's still pretty good if you're skilled enough to deal with icy spots. Think we can break 20 for the season with this, almost to half of normal.

IMG_20220224_113913.jpg

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The Euro has really dried up, especially for Iowa.  At this point 1" may be a win.

image.thumb.png.414850b49b6d29d0cae989a76d6b5e12.png

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Prolly NOT down here in the Metro per DTX

The usual P-type issues that plague far SEMI with every storm coming into play. Highest totals north of M-59 (SHOCKER!)

Looking forward to my 1" in-coming

This is 1" to maybe up to  4" event where the ratios and snows are more persistent.  widespread  3-6" lol 

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