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March 2022 Observations and Discussions


Hawkeye
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Next week is still a mystery.  The latest GFS has gone much colder, showing 20s and 30s here.  The latest Euro, meanwhile, has 50s and 60s.  I suspect the Euro is too warm and it will at least drop us to the 40s.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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14 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Next week is still a mystery.  The latest GFS has gone much colder, showing 20s and 30s here.  The latest Euro, meanwhile, has 50s and 60s.  I suspect the Euro is too warm and it will at least drop us to the 40s.

Thanks for starting this thread Hawkeye....ya, the Euro has been slowly trending towards the GFS in terms of the blocking and has our Sub literally in a battle between Winter and Spring oriented in a NW/SE fashion during the first 4-5 days of the month.

Once we get past the 4th/5th, the models all signal an active SW flow and more opportunities for snow generally from I-80 on north...

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4 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z GFS with lots of storms, some with thunder, others with snow.  Hopefully March will deliver an abundance of moisture in all forms.

Battleground setting up.  Lot's of sharp temp gradients in the month ahead.  

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The "Ides of March" are certainly showing up as we flip the calendar into met Spring.  Models are picking up on the 1st of what will be a series of storms coming out of the W/SW over the 1st couple weeks this month.  The spring version of a CO Low appears to flip the script of a warm/dry pattern in the W Plains/W Sub.  

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Both the EPS/GEFS are in pretty good agreement on a track at this range which is very odd to see from what has transpired this season.  The lack of model agreement while tracking previous storm systems doesn't seem like it will be an issue for our next big ticket storm.  IMO, this one is going to be fun to track as it will likely have a big winter storm with multiple facets of wx.  Severe Wx?  Wound up winter storm?  @CentralNebWeatherit has eyes on you and @gabel23 and NE crew.  Winter has returned for the end of FEB in your area but without the snow (bummer) but that is going to be different next month.  I hope you guys get blasted and dumped on!

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Of course, let's not forget those members up north...the incredible stretch of winter shall continue and the Upper MW glacier looks to grow...How long will this last??

nsm_depth_2022022505_Upper_Midwest.jpg

 

I'm a big fan of using the GEFS to sniff out the LR 10mb pattern.  When the odds were against the Stratospheric PV from being disrupted due to seasonal trends, nature seems to be deciding to throw a wrench into that trend.  It is now becoming likely that a disruption to the PV is going to happen, coinciding, during the opening days of MAR and the start of Met Spring (ill timed).

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@JudahCohen...

 

False Spring???  Enjoy it while it lasts....the eastern Sub has a better opportunity for warmer days from storm induced cutters..

 

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I wish I could lock this in for Nebraska, Iowa, and SE Wisc.  Good luck with this one!

1646697600-yxexdxuS3CI.png

1646654400-ctx9tZncqJQ.png

We could only hope. This would be our signature storm like we used to get back in the day during state basketball. But based off this year I see you guys being in the jackpot area for this  one 

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This year state basketball is combined boys and girls March 7-12 as Nebraska is hosting the Big 10 Wrestling Tournament the week before. Have been to many state tournaments that were frigid with lots of snow. I think it was 2009, our HS girls team barely got there to play. I 80 was closed. We couldn’t get to Lincoln. Small crowds that weekend. 

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22 minutes ago, centralweather44 said:

We could only hope. This would be our signature storm like we used to get back in the day during state basketball. But based off this year I see you guys being in the jackpot area for this  one 

No, it'll hit. I was crying about how this year has been well below average for us when we needed it for outdoor activities, and how we'll get a big dump in March so we have a few days of good snow before it disappears quickly between the angry March sun and warmer March temps. There is a pattern to horrible winters where winter outdoor activities are completely ruined because it doesn't snow all winter very much, then the tail end of winter we get a ton of snow and all the pretty graphs about "average snowfall" make that winter look like it wasn't a steaming pile of turds for people who like downhill/cross country skiing, snowboarding, snowmobiling, etc.

There is a method to this, some years old man winter just loves to hate people who like outdoor snow stuff in southern Wisconsin, this year is definitely one of them. Two days of the trails being open, even if we get early march snow storms and they open the trails it'll just be a few extra days. Pattern this year is going to look like 2001-2002

https://www.aos.wisc.edu/%7Esco/clim-history/stations/msn/msn-sts-2001-02.gif

https://www.aos.wisc.edu/%7Esco/clim-history/stations/msn/msn-sts-2021-22.gif

Very similar years, late start to snow, two largish ones, then finish the year with a big climb. After that snowfall wasn't close to average through the winter until the 2005-2006 winter. Sunspot activity correlates (whatever that's worth) to the bad streak of winters we had

image.png.94a587cb9751fd5399a2650062cc44aa.png

And guess where sunspot activity is heading.


Snowfall source if anyone is interested, they have nice data here https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/clim-history/7cities/madison.html

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Noticed some spring bulbs already poking out. After this week, they’ll probably be ready to bloom. 
GFS flashing a nice dry slot over eastern Nebraska with some showers out front of the next system and then nothing on the backside.

Then normal March swings thereafter.

Til the pattern actually flips, call me a non believer on any wet or snowy prediction. Been right every other time this winter, including the ending of February.

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Fun fact. Starting on February 19th most days have had record highs of 60 or better. But on March 1st the record high is only 58. The 1st of March is the only day in March that has not gotten to 60 or better and is the last day in the year that has not gotten to 60 or better at Grand Rapids until December 9th. Note that I am talking about all time record highs for the date.

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3 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

No, it'll hit. I was crying about how this year has been well below average for us when we needed it for outdoor activities, and how we'll get a big dump in March so we have a few days of good snow before it disappears quickly between the angry March sun and warmer March temps. There is a pattern to horrible winters where winter outdoor activities are completely ruined because it doesn't snow all winter very much, then the tail end of winter we get a ton of snow and all the pretty graphs about "average snowfall" make that winter look like it wasn't a steaming pile of turds for people who like downhill/cross country skiing, snowboarding, snowmobiling, etc.

There is a method to this, some years old man winter just loves to hate people who like outdoor snow stuff in southern Wisconsin, this year is definitely one of them. Two days of the trails being open, even if we get early march snow storms and they open the trails it'll just be a few extra days. Pattern this year is going to look like 2001-2002

https://www.aos.wisc.edu/%7Esco/clim-history/stations/msn/msn-sts-2001-02.gif

https://www.aos.wisc.edu/%7Esco/clim-history/stations/msn/msn-sts-2021-22.gif

Very similar years, late start to snow, two largish ones, then finish the year with a big climb. After that snowfall wasn't close to average through the winter until the 2005-2006 winter. Sunspot activity correlates (whatever that's worth) to the bad streak of winters we had

image.png.94a587cb9751fd5399a2650062cc44aa.png

And guess where sunspot activity is heading.


Snowfall source if anyone is interested, they have nice data here https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/clim-history/7cities/madison.html

I've been watching the sunspot activity, kind of hoping that some predictions about a minimum will be true.  In the short term, sunspot activity has been on fire.  They are increasing faster than predicted for this cycle.  Hopefully that will be balanced out as we head further into the cycle.  

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Looks like some more snow chances next week in S MI. Lets see how this plays out. Temps remain cold, w maybe a couple of low 40s for high temps here and there, but mostly 30s for highs and 20s for lows. A few teens in the far NW suburbs perhaps is possible on occasion.

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Final Snowfall as of today June 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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When the Euro decides to show a criss-cross pattern across the Sub...X marks the spot...esp right where the Blitz magnet has been this season over the E Dakotas/W MN.

1.png

 

February's snowfall % mean....sorta lines up with both "X" patterns...when your mind see's things that pop up in your data base...

month.sperc.png

 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

When the Euro decides to show a criss-cross pattern across the Sub...X marks the spot...esp right where the Blitz magnet has been this season over the E Dakotas/W MN.

1.png

 

February's snowfall % mean....sorta lines up with both "X" patterns...when your mind see's things that pop up in your data base...

month.sperc.png

 

If anyone thought we were exaggerating our snow drought, look at this map  

Just sad how dry most of the center of the nation is.  

 

 

 

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The GFS has finally caught up to the Australian and JMA when it comes to the MJO.

GFS MJO index forecast phase diagram

Some of us will get a real nice warm up this week thanks to a rise in the EPO but then it tanks.  Phase 3 imprint and a tanking EPO and -PNA should mean cold and wet for many on here especially in the middle of the country.

1645941600-ofZH6UX6QpEgrb2.png

1645941600-83bsEALymcggrb2.png

 

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7 hours ago, Madtown said:

looks like sled season is over with next weekends rainer😔

I hear ya, feels like it's all ending too early. March torch is going to do us all in, I am feeling it too. The last two weeks of snowboarding have been pretty weak because of the weather ruining the base, and it looks like the next two weeks is going to be more of the same. Was a really lousy season even for snowboarding, December was a wash with warm temps and fighting the weather, and the second half February was bad weather, and looks like March is going to suck too. Only good snowboarding/skiing we really had was in January and the first week of February when it was really cold and the snow was great. Hard to think the majority of the season was poor snow. Usually snowboarding is my back up plan when we don't get enough natural snow, but this winter sucked so bad even snowboarding sucked. And I splurged on two season passes too.

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Alright, alright, alright...March isn't necessarily coming in like a Lion (my bust), but it definitely will be roaring like a Lion come this weekend and into the extended.  Enjoy the Spring warmth for those who see it bc it'll be a while till those temps come back.  "Ides of March"....0z EPS/GEFS show plenty of snow opportunities and a MUCH Below Normal temp pattern setting up into the Plains/Upper MW region.  #BackLoadedSeason....#NorthwoodsSnowMagnet

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Don’t get in a hurry Tom!   
Texas will see the high 60’s to 70 this week.  Sun, sand and surf! …….meh, not so much.
Sun. 🤠👍 okay. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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With meteorological winter almost over here is a recap as to were Grand Rapids currently stands. For meteorological winter with one more day to go the mean is 26.4° December was warmer than average but January and February were colder than average. That mean of 26.4 is -0.9. As for snow fall the total at Grand Rapids for this winter season is 64.6" and yes that is below the average of 67.5" where GR should be at the end of February. There has been 1" or more of snow on the ground for a total of 68 days the 30 year average for 1" of snow on the ground for the whole winter season is 67 days. The most snow on the ground this winter season so far has been 11" with the 30 year average being 12" so all in all a very typical winter season here in Grand Rapids for the winter of 2021/22. I will update this after the total official numbers come in.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Alright, alright, alright...March isn't necessarily coming in like a Lion (my bust), but it definitely will be roaring like a Lion come this weekend and into the extended.  Enjoy the Spring warmth for those who see it bc it'll be a while till those temps come back.  "Ides of March"....0z EPS/GEFS show plenty of snow opportunities and a MUCH Below Normal temp pattern setting up into the Plains/Upper MW region.  #BackLoadedSeason....#NorthwoodsSnowMagnet

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Wait, that shows snow over Nebraska, must be a mistake. 😂

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Alright, alright, alright...March isn't necessarily coming in like a Lion (my bust), but it definitely will be roaring like a Lion come this weekend and into the extended.  Enjoy the Spring warmth for those who see it bc it'll be a while till those temps come back.  "Ides of March"....0z EPS/GEFS show plenty of snow opportunities and a MUCH Below Normal temp pattern setting up into the Plains/Upper MW region.  #BackLoadedSeason....#NorthwoodsSnowMagnet

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Just in time for all the ski hills in southern wisconsin to close, lol

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PV update , another day or 2 at record status then the talked about weakening. 

 

The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!! 
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 53.4 m/s 
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -10.6 m/s 1979 
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 47.3 m/s 1997 

 

Dr. SIMON LEE:

In the medium-term, a minor split of the stratospheric vortex will occur. The specifics of this event are uncertain and rapidly-evolving. However, forecasts remain confident that the vortex will not be significantly affected and will continue into April in a generally stronger-than-normal state, albeit perhaps slightly weaker than earlier forecasts suggested, weakening with the seasonal cycle.

Looking further ahead, The split event — presuming it evolves as is currently being modelled, which seems a reasonable assumption at these lead-times — is only very brief. It does not induce the strong easterlies and extended recovery period that occur during a major SSW. The large Eurasian vortex returns quickly to the pole, taking the stratospheric NAM strongly positive once more. Things then continue in largely the same vein as before this synoptic-scale event occurred: the vortex responds “’tis but a scratch!” and continues kicking

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On 2/24/2022 at 1:18 PM, Hawkeye said:

Next week is still a mystery.  The latest GFS has gone much colder, showing 20s and 30s here.  The latest Euro, meanwhile, has 50s and 60s.  I suspect the Euro is too warm and it will at least drop us to the 40s.

The Euro mostly won.  We are expected to only reach the 30s Thursday behind a front before we climb back to the 40s Friday and 50s Saturday.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro mostly won.  We are expected to only reach the 30s Thursday behind a front before we climb back to the 40s Friday and 50s Saturday.

GFS is so bad in the long range temp wise.  It’s a garbage model at thermals.  Always add 5-10 degree to what it’s showing after 180 hours.  Also, with sun, add 5 degrees everyday to your temp forecast.  

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@Clinton, that storm showing up on the models during the 9th-11th timeframe has BIG potential and is lining up quite well with Jan 4th-6th Blizzard that hit the Upper MW.  What are your thoughts on this?  It looks like there will be some good blocking up in the Arctic regions that should produce a wound up storm.  I'm more interested in this one to become a big dog for the central Sub.

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Yikes, now the JMA and some of the other models are suggesting a detour away from any warm phases of the MJO, but a beeline towards Phase 1/2??

 

 

JMAN_phase_51m_small.gif

 

Phase 1/2 are not warm for MAR....

combined_image.png

 

0z EPS...brutal late season cold knifing down the leeward side of the Rockies....#delayedspring

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, that storm showing up on the models during the 9th-11th timeframe has BIG potential and is lining up quite well with Jan 4th-6th Blizzard that hit the Upper MW.  What are your thoughts on this?  It looks like there will be some good blocking up in the Arctic regions that should produce a wound up storm.  I'm more interested in this one to become a big dog for the central Sub.

That's the one I'm interested in also, it has blizzard potential for someone.  I feel like KC has a shot at some snow on the backside of this but it will depend on how hard it cuts.  Something like what the 0z GFS shows is what I expect.

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There are always cold shots in spring. Delayed?   It’s already here.   1 have one day forecasted below freezing the next 8 days.  Several in the 40’s and 50’s.  March will start out near to above normal.  

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2 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

There are always cold shots in spring. Delayed?   It’s already here.   1 have one day forecasted below freezing the next 8 days.  Several in the 40’s and 50’s.  March will start out near to above normal.  

Not for our region and points SE…yo-yo temp swings…I’m sure you saw the temp animation off the EPS.  That should justify a delay for any sustained Spring like temps for a while.

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Beautiful week here in KC! May touch on a record high tomorrow with near 80 degree weather. GFS did a nice job on seeing this warm-up this week from 10 days out. 

Will winter return for a few weeks....some data says yes sir!

We officially finished Feb. around 2 degrees below average on temps and well above average on snow! 10-14 inches fell around the KC area in Feb. WOW!! We average around 5.5

I'm currently just 1 inch of snow below average for the entire winter season, we just might go above average on total snowfall if winter returns next week. 

I would say an average winter here in KC. Let's see if it ends with a bang. 

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50 minutes ago, Tom said:

Not for our region and points SE…yo-yo temp swings…I’m sure you saw the temp animation off the EPS.  That should justify a delay for any sustained Spring like temps for a while.

Yeah I don't like the look mid-march. Definitely shots at some cooler weather and some snow, but that's not unusual for Michigan in March.  Do I hope I score some 50's out ahead of the storm this weekend.    Would also like another (though haven't been many) plowable snow to test my new snow blower that arrived yesterday.  I went electric.  

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Welcome to meteorological spring. While there will be the usual ups and downs over the next few weeks we will see more and more days that can be classified as nice as we get deeper into spring. Last night it was colder here at my house then at the airport by several degrees. The overnight low here was 25 while the official overnight low was just 32. With mostly clear skies the trend continues as it it now 38 at GRR and just 33 here at my house. And of course there is still that trace of snow on the ground. The record high for today at Grand Rapids is 58. Staring tomorrow the record high each day is 60 or better until December 9th.

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43 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Would also like another (though haven't been many) plowable snow to test my new snow blower that arrived yesterday.  I went electric.  

The last time Grand Rapids had a official 5" or more snow fall in March was on March 21, 2008. As for a 3" snow fall. There were reported 3" snow falls on April 14, 2019 and April 8, 2016. I did not live in Grand Rapids at the time but there were some big time snow storms when I lived in Bay City with 22" on March 17 1973 (7.5" at GR) and 14" on April 2/3 1975 (10" here in GR) but if we do not get your snow in the next two weeks you may have to wait until next winter.

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GFS is always wrong about the cold in medium and long range forecasts in March. Every year I watch it and think I'm going to get two more weeks of snowboarding, and it always ends way sooner.

The rain storm this weekend will really destroy everything, going to ride this week like it's my last of the season. I hope it weakens a lot.

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Recap for the winter of 2021/22. meteorological winter at Grand Rapids had a mean of 26.3 that is -1.0. December’s mean of 34.5 was the warmest since 2015 but January’s mean of 20.2 was the coldest since 2014. As to snow fall the total snow fall so far this season is now at 64.9” That is -3.4” from where GR should be by March 1st At Muskegon they only have had 48.1” of snow so far this season and they are now -29.8 from where they should be on March 1st Over at Lansing they are at 50.8” and they are +8.2” from where they should be now.  At Grand Rapids there has been at least 1” of snow on the ground for 66 days so far this season the 30 year average is 67 days. So temperature wise this has been a rather typical winter season and the total snow fall has been variable but much less than average at the lake shore. 

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Wait. I thought this year, was alternating wet/dry, 60-65 day cycles? That would mean the same “wet” LRC would actually be from 120-130 days ago. When there was a storm mid February we weren’t using the big tornado outbreak storm in December, but rather the storms in October. But now we’re using a big wet storm from January (that was way north) to justify a big storm in March?🙄🙄🙄

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Mid 50's here and mostly sunny.

It has been a few weeks since my last measurable snow. Other than a mere tease or two for winter, looks like the weather is going to be mild from this point on.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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13 hours ago, Stacsh said:

GFS is so bad in the long range temp wise.  It’s a garbage model at thermals.  Always add 5-10 degree to what it’s showing after 180 hours.  Also, with sun, add 5 degrees everyday to your temp forecast.  

 

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Not for our region and points SE…yo-yo temp swings…I’m sure you saw the temp animation off the EPS.  That should justify a delay for any sustained Spring like temps for a while.

60's and sunny (in a stretch) qualifies as "spring" in my book, not 50's with rain. I see SMI stuck in Wx Purgatory going forward this month. Not really winter, not really spring. Caught in between two seasons. More "blah" wx on tap it would seem. Yes, those ensemble maps paint a few inches of snow, but cut those in half as a rule (here any ways), and you get one event that coats the ground for a day or two, or a few dustings added up. As westMJim has posted, we are not on any roll wrt decent March snow hits (April's actually been better, lol) so I am now officially in stat pad season myself.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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