March 2022 Observations and Discussions

[james1976]

Bought a trailer up by St Cloud, MN last night. Pulled it down to IA this morning. Dense fog most of the trip. Burnt off a while ago. Should get close to 60 today. Mayyyyyybe 70 tomorrow?

[Hawkeye]

For days, the GFS has been adamant a wrapped-up low will track northeast and dump good rain and even snow across Iowa late this week.  Meanwhile, no other model has shown anything close to that.  Most runs of most models have shown no precip at all in Iowa because of a much farther south and weaker system.  The NWS offices have largely dismissed the GFS, and I did as well.  However, this morning the Canadian and UK both made a significant shift toward the GFS.

[CentralNebWeather]

System for next Monday/Tuesday looks like our best chance of significant moisture in well over 6 months.  12Z ICON, GFS, Canadian all have a storm in the same vicinity with a large moisture shield.  Canadian has snow on the back side.  0Z Euro went way south, so it will interesting to see how that goes in later runs.  I know Agricultural interests and many other are hoping for this storm to deliver.

[Tom]

12 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

For days, the GFS has been adamant a wrapped-up low will track northeast and dump good rain and even snow across Iowa late this week.  Meanwhile, no other model has shown anything close to that.  Most runs of most models have shown no precip at all in Iowa because of a much farther south and weaker system.  The NWS offices have largely dismissed the GFS, and I did as well.  However, this morning the Canadian and UK both made a significant shift toward the GFS.

I've been watching the model battle myself with interest to see if the GEFS/GFS would score another win in the medium/long range for this storm.  Looks like its doing a good job yet again.  Should be a dreary/windy/rainy/cold Friday around here.

[Beltrami Island]

Let the meltdown commence, I guess, well it had to happen eventually. I wish it could have waited until after this coming weekend.  40 at noon already.  Seeing blacktop on some city streets I haven't seen since mid December.

[MIKEKC]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I've been watching the model battle myself with interest to see if the GEFS/GFS would score another win in the medium/long range for this storm.  Looks like its doing a good job yet again.  Should be a dreary/windy/rainy/cold Friday around here.

The 12z EURO looks a lot like the GFS now.....have to watch where the comma head of the storm forms as that will likely be the best chance of a changeover to heavy snow for several hours late Thursday into Friday. Where will that be?

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

For days, the GFS has been adamant a wrapped-up low will track northeast and dump good rain and even snow across Iowa late this week.  Meanwhile, no other model has shown anything close to that.  Most runs of most models have shown no precip at all in Iowa because of a much farther south and weaker system.  The NWS offices have largely dismissed the GFS, and I did as well.  However, this morning the Canadian and UK both made a significant shift toward the GFS.

Yeah our NWS is disregarding the GFS as well. In fact they actually took out the chance of rain for Thursday/Friday here.

[MIKEKC]

4 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yeah our NWS is disregarding the GFS as well. In fact they actually took out the chance of rain for Thursday/Friday here.

The GFS model on most of the runs has had the storm mainly SE of your area. The target area is eastern KS, through KC up to central/eastern Iowa. GFS has shown this for days now, now, all the other data is lining up with the GFS.

We'll see if The GFS scores yet another victory. Been pretty D**n good for KC this year. Like I said, the EURO until the 12z run today had the storm less juiced and farther south. Now, it looks exactly like what the GFS has shown for days. Storm looks quite strong on the current data

[MIKEKC]

Another thing I noticed on the 12z run of the EURO and the Canadian is a pretty good shot of cold air around the 24th and the 25th with a storm a brewing...nobody is going to be happy with that after several days in the 60's and 70's. We'll see how that trends.

Tom/Clinton...any teleconnections supporting a cold push later this month. Please say no...

[Tony]

NAM was weaker but it was colder showing more snow. I'm guessing there will be snow and possibly heavy wherever it may fall. Winter not quite over yet

[Grizzcoat]

other models now coming around to the GFS- NAM/RDPS etc, though they are not there yet but it appears the GFS may not be as much an outlier as previously thought.

18Z GFS -

[Minny_Weather]

Today is the first day Fargo hit 40 since 12/1.

[CentralNebWeather]

Jim Flowers has stuck a fork in this dreadful winter. He lists snow totals like 4.1” in Norfolk. His prediction for Omaha was 21-24” and they currently have 10”. I remember his video back in October saying snowfall would be below normal, but not this far below as he mentions in the video here. 
https://fb.watch/bMU-ectt9_/

[Bellona]

Ugh, I really want to get out in the yard and uncover my perennial beds, but am I going to get 6+ inches of snow coming up.. grrr

[snowstorm83]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Jim Flowers has stuck a fork in this dreadful winter. He lists snow totals like 4.1” in Norfolk. His prediction for Omaha was 21-24” and they currently have 10”. I remember his video back in October saying snowfall would be below normal, but not this far below as he mentions in the video here. 
https://fb.watch/bMU-ectt9_/

Yeah I’ll feel a lot better just forgetting this year and moving on to the next. Basically any possible scenario next year will be better than this one.

[gimmesnow]

4 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

other models now coming around to the GFS- NAM/RDPS etc, though they are not there yet but it appears the GFS may not be as much an outlier as previously thought.

18Z GFS -

Cascade Mountain is right between the 10.0 and 11.7, please be true I'll get a hotel room there Sat night for that, haha.

[james1976]

Local met has ZERO mention of snow. Has 50 and slight rain chance for Friday. Not saying he will be right....just passing on info. 

[Grizzcoat]

GFS really locked in---

[Grizzcoat]

37 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Local met has ZERO mention of snow. Has 50 and slight rain chance for Friday. Not saying he will be right....just passing on info. 

Most are like that this time of year. Only the good ones would dare mention it for fear of Spring Fever being crushed -- albeit for only a day or two. IF it was November, it would be a different story. Sad---

[Hawkeye]

GFS for the big win?

Tonight's GDPS (Canadian) and UK trended even farther nw and stronger late this week, now getting pretty close to the GFS.

 

[Hawkeye]

And now tonight's Euro is nearly a full cave to the GFS.

[Grizzcoat]

Yes it has. 24 HR Cobb totals-- (warm ground will be an issue, but still- forecasters will have there hands full with this one in C/S Iowa after leading the public on to not much going on.  This is the kinda of setup that can produce thunder snow.

[Grizzcoat]

Kuchera totals-

[Phil]

Hit 73 degrees yesterday here in Cabin John. Snow cover was all gone by 10AM.

Looks like similar weather today.

[Phil]

On 3/13/2022 at 3:36 AM, Brennan said:

Been in the forums for almost 15 years… just moved from Bellingham Washington to Inman South Carolina. 25*f. Freezing cold. I’m assuming this is unusual for this time of year here. 

Welcome to the swamp, brother.

Get ready to drink 15lbs of water per day. Lol

[Tom]

I'm pleased to see the models (except for the Euro) soaking the central Plains ag belt region over the next 10 days....

 

Way back in OCT/NOV when the LRC was evolving, the storm track was forming near the "Slot" across the TX PanHandle region.  The quintessential "TX Panhandle Cutter" never really got its act together during the heart of Winter due to the lack blocking/timing of cold/phasing/etc  but then later in the season we did see episodes of systems trying to do so.  Well, we are about to see the pattern cycle again and yet another TX Panhandle cutter is in the works.  This is a picture perfect storm track for many of us to get a large widespread soaking rain (wish this was #realwinter)....as Cub's fans used to say "maybe next year"....Fri/Sat look ugly around here with daytime temps in the upper 30's/low 40's and a raw NE wind.  Kuddo's to the GFS/GEFS.

 

 

Is another one brewing to welcome the Spring Solstice???  The models are locking in on a powerful trough to track into the 4 corners region on the 20th (Spring Solstice) and then guess what happens next...the energy ejects out into the TX Panhandle region as a deep low appears to form near the TexArkana region and track NNE up into the Lower Lakes region.  Fun times tracking over the next couple weeks.

 

 

What are the models suggesting down the road to finish off MAR???  Blocking Baby...there is that -NAO I was looking to develop late month and now every model is seeing it.  Winter's final wrath could be in the works....

 

[Tom]

In other news, I just heard on the local news that the US Senate Passed a Bill (Unanimous Decision) called the "Sunshine Protection Act" that would suggest permanent Daylight Savings starting next year in 2023.  What do you think about this?  That would make sunrises/sunsets later in the Winter months but leave the Sunsets/Sunrises unchanged both in June.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-approves-bill-that-would-make-daylight-savings-time-permanent-2023-2022-03-15/

 

[Clinton]

20 minutes ago, Tom said:

In other news, I just heard on the local news that the US Senate Passed a Bill (Unanimous Decision) called the "Sunshine Protection Act" that would suggest permanent Daylight Savings starting next year in 2023.  What do you think about this?  That would make sunrises/sunsets later in the Winter months but leave the Sunsets/Sunrises unchanged both in June.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-approves-bill-that-would-make-daylight-savings-time-permanent-2023-2022-03-15/

 

I'm completely in favor of this. I never was a fan of setting the clocks back in the fall and making it dark when I get home from work.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Clinton]

Looks like March weather ahead.

[Minny_Weather]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

In other news, I just heard on the local news that the US Senate Passed a Bill (Unanimous Decision) called the "Sunshine Protection Act" that would suggest permanent Daylight Savings starting next year in 2023.  What do you think about this?  That would make sunrises/sunsets later in the Winter months but leave the Sunsets/Sunrises unchanged both in June.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-approves-bill-that-would-make-daylight-savings-time-permanent-2023-2022-03-15/

 

I've actually always been in favor of standard time. I like when it gets dark earlier and I'm not a fan of it being pitch black at 7:30am. Still, I was hoping for an end to a time change so if this is what it takes, then so be it.

[Tom]

23 minutes ago, MSP_Weather said:

I've actually always been in favor of standard time. I like when it gets dark earlier and I'm not a fan of it being pitch black at 7:30am. Still, I was hoping for an end to a time change so if this is what it takes, then so be it.

I guess it all depends if your an early riser (like me) or if your lifestyle allows you to sleep in later.  The extra darkness in the mornings will be harder for those who wake up early but not if you can sleep in later.  In AZ, they don’t change the time and it works out quite well.

[westMJim]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Sunshine Protection Act" that would suggest permanent Daylight Savings starting next year in 2023.  What do you think about this?  That would make sunrises/sunsets later in the Winter months but leave the Sunsets/Sunrises unchanged both in June.

I am in favor of this. I am not a morning person It is much better to have it light out at night even in the winter time. 

[CentralNebWeather]

I'm about 100 miles of east of the Mountain time Zone.  Around here, it would mean a sunrise around 9 AM or a little later in November through December.  People I have talked to like more sunshine/light after work or school.  Really the biggest complaint I've heard is kids that have to walk to school or wait at bus stops in the dark.  I just hate switching the clocks, so either one is fine with me.    

[gimmesnow]

I have a really stupid question I should have asked a while ago, but in the models, when it says 18z, that means 6pm Zulu time, right? Which is 5 hours ahead of US Central time, right?

Also going to be interesting how this affects ski resorts, they usually groom in the morning, but this is enough to make some of them have to groom in the dark instead of daylight.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, gimmesnow said:

I have a really stupid question I should have asked a while ago, but in the models, when it says 18z, that means 6pm Zulu time, right? Which is 5 hours ahead of US Central time, right?

Also going to be interesting how this affects ski resorts, they usually groom in the morning, but this is enough to make some of them have to groom in the dark instead of daylight.

18z before the time change was 12:00 CDT so now it’s 1:00pm CDT 

[mlgamer]

The problem with daylight savings time is we get our weather data an hour later local time which would be a pain in winter.

That said, I would prefer standard time but either way works just as long we stop this near meaningless clock changing twice a year.

[CentralNebWeather]

29 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

The problem with daylight savings time is we get our weather data an hour later local time which would be a pain in winter.

That said, I would prefer standard time but either way works just as long we stop this near meaningless clock changing twice a year.

Great point.  Forgot about the daily weather models.  That is one thing I love about Standard time is the earlier arrival of those.  

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS looking great for rainfall next Monday and Tuesday for much of Nebraska and the Central Plains, through hour 153.  

[Minny_Weather]

This was all covered in about 5" of white stuff 48 hours ago.