March 2022 Observations and Discussions

[gimmesnow]

This is shaping up to be a nice spring transition from winter to summer activities. Friday and Saturday I was snowboarding in nice cold snow in the 20s, then I had a couple days of spring riding. Just a couple trips to Cascade left and the big party Saturday, then warm and rain to get the lake in good shape.

I hate when it gets warm and nasty in mid/late february, ruins all the snow stuff, then proceeds to be cold and snowy after ski hills close.

[Hawkeye]

Best Euro run so far... and it has a few patches of accumulating snow as well.  It won't be easy for the snow to pile up, so I'd be wary of any significant totals.

[westMJim]

 While it is unofficial I now have a temperature of 66. The official 3PM reading at GRR was 62. 67 at Kalamazoo. 64 at Holland and Lansing. All in all a very mild March 16 in west Michigan.

[CentralNebWeather]

Not good at all.  Have to hope next week's storm materializes.

[snowstorm83]

Winter sunsets aren’t really that early in Lincoln, I think I would want to switch to mountain time if standard time is eliminated. These days I tend to sleep in most of the time, but soon I’ll be doing the lovely 8-5 grind and 9 am sunrises wouldn’t be fun. On the other hand, I’ve been enjoying the late sunsets the past few days. It’s been annoying to have a days in the 60s and 70s (short sleeve weather) and the temperatures drops 20 degrees at sunset. 

[Tom]

Man, it is beautiful out there today…#springfever

A few local stations are reporting the 1st 70F day of the season.

[james1976]

Currently 68! I'm ok with that

[Grizzcoat]

DMX finally admitting this late week system is something to watch--- pretty good disco from them -

On the warmer/less snowy
side, the 15z RAP and 12z/18z HRRR soundings show the boundary layer
remaining too warm and yielding just a chilly rain at DSM, OTM, LWD,
and CSQ. Conversely on the cold/snowier model side, the GFS/NAM
soundings and to some degree the 00z ECMWF ensemble sounding at DSM
and OTM shows a colder boundary layer developing late Thursday
evening into Friday with temperatures at the surface right around
freezing. Further, the profile is near isothermal in the low levels
in the lesser known dendritic growth zone (DGZ) just below freezing
between -1 and -3C. While the GFS QPF and snow ratios are too high
and above the 95th percentile of its own ensemble (!), both the GFS
and NAM paint a band of moderate snow accumulations from southwest
Iowa through the Des Moines/Ames area up into northeastern Iowa.
Examining cross sections from southeast to northwest across the
state, the NAM shows not as much moisture in the upper levels while
the GFS is juiced throughout. Both show strong lift developing
within the DGZ with frontogenesis maxing out in the 925-850 and 850-
700mb layers. It is impressive to see the NAM and GFS continuing to
be dynamically cooled through the day Friday to maintain snowfall
per BUFKIT soundings regardless of whether that is correct or not.
However, cross sections also show there will be dry air trying to
undercut the precipitation from the north. This will lead to a sharp
cutoff in the north/northwestward extent of the precipitation.
Looking at probabilities of greater than 1" of snowfall, both the
GFS and the ECMWF ensemble means shows a similar path with
probabilities topping out generally between 20 and 50%. There are
also low probabilities (~<20%) of greater than 3" in both of these.
With this changeover occurring at night and the strong forcing,
could see a period of accumulating snowfall in a narrow band.
Current forecast is showing a swath of snow of around or less than
an inch along an axis from southwest to northeast in the state.
Confidence is low in this period given the differences in thermal
profiles. If it ends up being warmer (e.g. RAP/HRRR runs), then a
mainly rain event with possibly little accumulation on elevated or
grassy/vegetated surfaces may occur to no accumulation at all. If
the colder solutions (e.g. NAM/GFS) pan out, the amounts currently
forecast would be too widespread and underdone wherever the band
sets up with possible high impacts to the Friday morning commute.
While road temperatures are well above freezing today and tomorrow,
we have seen snow rates overcome warm pavement temperatures to
accumulate before in March. Snow ratios will be below 10:1 making
this a wet snowfall, whatever does fall

[Clinton]

I made it up to 73 today even broke a sweat working outside.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

2021-2022 depressing snowfall totals. I’m in the 8-12” color. I think I officially have 11”. Not too far southwest of me is feet more. And even farther southwest, Western Kansas has had a great snow season. Lincoln, just wow. 

[Bryan1117]

15 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

 

2021-2022 depressing snowfall totals. I’m in the 8-12” color. I think I officially have 11”. Not too far southwest of me is feet more. And even farther southwest, Western Kansas has had a great snow season. Lincoln, just wow. 

Looking at this map, North Bend, NE has a total of less than 2” of snow this season and Columbus, NE is just under 4” so far. Wow, that’s just brutal and unbelievable at the same time. 
 

#WinterToForgetInNebraska

[snowstorm83]

11 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Looking at this map, North Bend, NE has a total of less than 2” of snow this season and Columbus, NE is just under 4” so far. Wow, that’s just brutal and unbelievable at the same time. 
 

#WinterToForgetInNebraska

Norfolk at 4.1” is the big one for me, it seems like they always find a way to get snow. 2016-17 when Lincoln had 7.5”, Norfolk still managed to pick up like 30” lol.

[jcwxguy]

25 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Looking at this map, North Bend, NE has a total of less than 2” of snow this season and Columbus, NE is just under 4” so far. Wow, that’s just brutal and unbelievable at the same time. 
 

#WinterToForgetInNebraska

living in fremont, i can believe that LOL

[Tom]

ORD tacked its official first 70F day of the season....the clouds and warm breeze made it really feel like Spring has arrived.  The part of the shoulder season what I dislike is about to occur later today through Sat when we get a cold spring storm to deliver a raw and nasty couple of days.  Loads of precip heading for the central ag belt regions that have been so dry this past Winter.

The last 3 months have been really dry across the central/southern Plains...

 

Nature looks to deliver the goods this coming 7 days...

 

0z EPS for the 1st storm and then combined with the big dog early next week...

 

[Tom]

We don't have a Spring/Summer thread up yet so I'll put these maps here as the latest JMA seasonal came in the other day and it is trying to advertising a warm west/colder east for April & May.

 

 

The model is not seeing the wetter pattern across the northern half of the Sub that the CFSv2 is seeing.  It's precip anomalies are near normal overall.

April...temp/precip

 

 

May...temp/precip...the chill continues in the Upper MW but a turn towards a wetter pattern over the northern Sub and GL's/MW.  IMHO, once the model sees more blocking in future runs this will eventually shift south.  I do believe the CFSv2 has the right idea as we head deeper into Spring that blocking will allow for a wetter pattern across the central Sub.  

 

[westMJim]

The official high at Grand Rapids yesterday was 65. Here at my house I reached a warmer 67. That 65 at GRR is the 7th warmest ever recorded at Grand Rapids for any March 16. If it makes it into the mid 60's today that would be another top ten for today. So early spring warm days are kind of rare around here. The official overnight low at GRR has been a warm 44 it is a cooler 38 here at my house with clear skies.  The sun is above the horizon today for 12 hours hours of sunup will not fall below 12 hours now until September 25. So the time for longer days has arrived.

[Madtown]

Big dog in a week? Sign me up!

[james1976]

I hit 70 yesterday.  It was perfect. 

Raining this morning already. Didn't think it was gonna start til later.

[CentralNebWeather]

There is a liquid falling from the sky. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[gabel23]

14 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

 

2021-2022 depressing snowfall totals. I’m in the 8-12” color. I think I officially have 11”. Not too far southwest of me is feet more. And even farther southwest, Western Kansas has had a great snow season. Lincoln, just wow. 

Nice blue bullseye right through my area. This map is pretty spot on as I'm sitting at less than 5" for the year. 

[CentralNebWeather]

26 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Nice blue bullseye right through my area. This map is pretty spot on as I'm sitting at less than 5" for the year. 

That is what I thought when I posted this.  Seems almost impossible to miss storms in every direction, but we've sure done it this year.  I need to find the map that shows Western Kansas.  The area from Goodland to Sharon Springs, has to be at record amounts.

[Hawkeye]

Several models have lowered rain totals around my area through Friday.  I'm hoping for at least 0.50".

[CentralNebWeather]

National Snowfall from Sept. 30th, 2021 - March 17, 2022

[CentralNebWeather]

 If you zoom in, you see that Sharon Springs KS, south of Goodland, is the orange dot of 3-4' of snow.  This is the place that had one snow event of 27" and another of 13" so they are probably closer to the 4'.  Amazing.  There average annual snowfall is 24"

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Timmy Supercell]

[snowstorm83]

Way out in fantasy land but lovely start to April on the 12z GFS 

[westMJim]

It is a very warm March day. Here at my house I now have a temperature of 71 the last official reading at GRR was 66. That official reading of 66 is the 8th warmest for any March 17th at Grand Rapids. My unofficial reading of 71would be the 3rd warmest. The current reading of 71 at Lansing will be a tie for the 2nd warmest March 17. The current 60 at Muskegon is also the 2nd warmest.

[Tom]

Well, it was fun while it lasted bc the lake breeze has moved in and brought with it clouds and temps dropping.  Unofficially, I hit a season high of 71F about an hour or so ago.  It felt so D**n nice I wish it could last.

[Clinton]

Wow blizzard warning for central Kansas.

[mlgamer]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Wow blizzard warning for central Kansas.

I'll admit it...I'm jealous.

[Grizzcoat]

Heavy snow in wording from NWS. 4" more and KDSM will officially be "normal" for the year (35.3").

What a difference 100 miles makes from those in OMA area.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

 

Wet snowflakes falling at 6:15 pm. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Snow starting to stick a little as the sun sets and the temp drops. 

 

 

[Bellona]

Reading DMX and ARX, central thru northeast Iowa anywhere from 0-8 inches lol

[jcwxguy]

screw you lincoln and omaha LOL

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[Bryan1117]

50 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

First a Creighton Bluejays' OT comeback win over San Diego State in the BIG DANCE (sorry but not sorry Iowa fans, haha) and maybe a surprise overnight snow... this could end up being a pretty amazing night in Omaha (more so in SE Nebraska it looks like).