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3/4 - 3/8 Multi-Day Wave Train


Tom
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The first, in what will be a series of waves coming out of the SW/4 corners region, will be an elongated CO Low that ejects out into the Plains and tracks towards the W GL's region.  How strong will the blocking be up north?  This first system looks to take a track into IA and then thru the GL's.  There will be a potpourri of precip types from Heavy Snow, ICE, Storms and a good amount of rain.  Let's discuss....#SWFlow

0z Euro Op...a little warmer than the GFS up in the Northwoods but still dumps a good amount of Snow with this 1st system...

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0z GFS showing a stronger HP Block up on top....

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0z GEFS....

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0z Canadien...

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Meantime, those south of the track are going to warm up quite a bit and get a taste of Spring....doesn't last long but I'm sure it'll feel pretty darn good!

Here's an animation of the 500hpa vorticity off tonight's 0z Euro...just look at the complexity of all the pieces of energy targeting the West Coast....busy times tracking ahead...

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0z EPS...farther south with the snow mean thru Saturday...

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NWS Hastings morning disco::

In addition...the flow will become more active as several disturbances will round the base of the trough across the southwest and cross the plains. With the cooler air then in place...could actually see a chance for snow across the local area this weekend and into next week as this more unsettled...and potentially beneficial period...is expected to continue into next week. Models have been hinting at this for several days and consistency continues to increase giving the hope for some much needed precipitation to the local area.

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS Hastings morning disco::

In addition...the flow will become more active as several disturbances will round the base of the trough across the southwest and cross the plains. With the cooler air then in place...could actually see a chance for snow across the local area this weekend and into next week as this more unsettled...and potentially beneficial period...is expected to continue into next week. Models have been hinting at this for several days and consistency continues to increase giving the hope for some much needed precipitation to the local area.

Boom!  I hope you score Big in the snow dept.   You should fair well in precip overall.

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Models are trending towards a warm cutter into N Wisco/U.P. which doesn't really bode well for the trails up north.  0z Euro and GFS poke the warm nose really far north into the U.P.

0z EPS for both waves...

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0z Euro...

 

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Both the EPS/GEFS are suggesting the secondary wave to lay down some snow farther south...

image.png

 

 

Would like that a warmer version could poke temps up near 60F around here on Sat...

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22 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z GFS wants to dry slot much of Central Nebraska with the 2 waves.  Nothing would surprise me with this winter.  

Don't worry it develops rain just in time to mess up skiing and snowboarding for southern Wisconsin lol. Would love to see you all get rain then it all crap out by the time it gets here. But this winter really hates Nebraska and southern WI.

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16 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Don't worry it develops rain just in time to mess up skiing and snowboarding for southern Wisconsin lol. Would love to see you all get rain then it all crap out by the time it gets here. But this winter really hates Nebraska and southern WI.

You just shake your head at how bad things have been for many on this board.  Unless it is a big storm/blizzard, I'd just as soon have rain to help with our drought conditions.

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18 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z Canadian for 240 hours of precipitation.  Just wow.

12Z Canadian 3 1.png

lol that little tiny dry spot in SE Wisconsin is exactly where I want it to be, too bad it's still 10 days out. If that verified I'd be a very happy snowboarder.

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z Canadian for 240 hours of precipitation.  Just wow.

12Z Canadian 3 1.png

gem_apcpn_us_40.png

Those Pivotal weather map pink scaling always look shocking to the eye. Compare it to tropical tidbits and it looks wet and stormy but nothing crazy for early march.

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10 hours ago, Madtown said:

how bad we lookin? Down and out with a brutal bug. 101 fever for the past 3 days

Not looking good for the Northwoods of Wisco/U.P....sadly, this storm is trending warmer pulling up much warmer air out in front of it and tugging up a lot of moisture.  The only positive is there will be enough cold air in place inititially to lay down some snow before the RN moves in with embedded storms.  #slopfest.  As long as temps/DP's don't surge to much it shouldn't be too bad.

@Beltrami Island may be close enough to cash in...

snku_acc.us_nc.png

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0z Canadien is better....

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

The secondary piece is showing up on the models and trying to "stat pad" the seasonal snowfall's across the lower lakes and of course, KC peeps and @Clinton

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

0z Euro...

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

Not looking good for the Northwoods of Wisco/U.P....sadly, this storm is trending warmer pulling up much warmer air out in front of it and tugging up a lot of moisture.  The only positive is there will be enough cold air in place inititially to lay down some snow before the RN moves in with embedded storms.  #slopfest.  As long as temps/DP's don't surge to much it shouldn't be too bad.

@Beltrami Island may be close enough to cash in...

snku_acc.us_nc.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

0z Canadien is better....

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

The secondary piece is showing up on the models and trying to "stat pad" the seasonal snowfall's across the lower lakes and of course, KC peeps and @Clinton

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

0z Euro...

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Sadly, the storm tracks would have to shift way nw for me to realistically hope for significant snow over the next 10 days....Duluth would have to be in the warm sector entirely. 

This storm track is classic minnesota precip climo, which leaves me in a position oh so close but out of the snow/precip shield.  I can think of many instances where Ifalls 60 miles to my east gets 6"+ snow and I am left high and dry.

81-10_precip_norm_annual.bmp

I have 24" snow depth on March 2nd, and a week+ of solidly below freezing days ahead, so I can't really complain if I get missed over the next 10 days. 

 

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What in the heck is the EURO trying to do early next week here in KC. It has a full blown snowstorm here after 80's this week. WOW!! Has some support from the GFS also. 

After that, maybe some really cold air to enter the pattern for another possible winter storm around the March 10-15th time frame. 

Today, pool like weather, Saturday thunderstorms, Sunday evening rain over to a snowstorm on Monday???

Let's Go!

 

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12z GEFS now seeing the 2nd wave a little better and lining up with the EPS from last night...

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It is also looking likely that the OHV gets a good soaking...

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Per Gary’s blog this morning 

This is evolving now, and we will see if the models continue trending into this solution. Here is what I wrote to a Weather 20/20 customer in mid-December for this next week: "This period will begin with a great chance of our biggest snowstorm of the season." So, this next storm has been on our "LRC Radar" for over two months to arrive in these next few days.

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So, the 0z Euro decides to lay down more snow along the I-80 corridor from the 2nd wave instead of the 1st one....something is not right here...

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0z EPS agrees...

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Riding the line again Monday.  Same all year, even in March?  Can I get it to come north a little bit?  Putting my new snow blower together on Saturday  when it may be in the low to mid 60's.  Another chance in 8-9 days as well.  

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12z Euro

image.thumb.png.8ef50373c270426273b917201eebd48d.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

It appears Pivotal is working for you?

I am getting a 404 error, and there was a message about it being know the model images weren't working....

(3 March 2022) Web service has been restored. Plus features will be publicly available until we can confirm user logins are working later today.

If you're still stuck, try going to the main page.

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6 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Chasing on Saturday!🌪🌪🌪

6165AFCD-AE58-4E46-A280-5B8A947320D6.jpeg

Does that say Mar 5th or May 5th?

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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The GFS is fading away to the south with Monday's snow system... way south of the Euro.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

Does that say Mar 5th or May 5th?

Latest 70 degree day ever on 12/15 followed by a record tornado outbreak of over 100 tornadoes, only 3-8" of total snowfall, earliest 80 degree temp, and now possible tornadoes on 3/5. Quite the short "off season".

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The Euro is still farther nw, but on all models the cold sector precip is junky.  The strong convection from the southern plains through the Ohio Valley steals the show.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

0z EPS...some much needed moisture for E NE but not so nice for @CentralNebWeather

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0z Euro Op...not looking to good @Madtown....

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Storm chances increasing for SAT across IA....

 

day2otlk_0700.gif

At this point I’d be shocked to see anything fall from the sky. We just need to move on to hopefully a new pattern. Always tough to get out of a drought. 

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7 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

At this point I’d be shocked to see anything fall from the sky. We just need to move on to hopefully a new pattern. Always tough to get out of a drought. 

You are right, this weather pattern is designed to punish a band from Nebraska to southern Wisconsin. I will get my biggest snowstorm of the year after the ski hills are closed and the lakes are thawed so they can't open up the snowmobile trails (they've been open for two days  this winter). Once it's time for the heavy equipment and tractors to start working the fields I'm sure you'll get enough rain that the fields become a huge mud mess and it makes running those machines a nightmare, which will go excellent with the $5/gal diesel we'll be getting soon. This pattern absolutely hates us and it's meant to spite us.

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