Tom Posted February 28, 2022 Report Share Posted February 28, 2022 The first, in what will be a series of waves coming out of the SW/4 corners region, will be an elongated CO Low that ejects out into the Plains and tracks towards the W GL's region. How strong will the blocking be up north? This first system looks to take a track into IA and then thru the GL's. There will be a potpourri of precip types from Heavy Snow, ICE, Storms and a good amount of rain. Let's discuss....#SWFlow 0z Euro Op...a little warmer than the GFS up in the Northwoods but still dumps a good amount of Snow with this 1st system... 0z GFS showing a stronger HP Block up on top.... 0z GEFS.... 0z Canadien... Meantime, those south of the track are going to warm up quite a bit and get a taste of Spring....doesn't last long but I'm sure it'll feel pretty darn good! Here's an animation of the 500hpa vorticity off tonight's 0z Euro...just look at the complexity of all the pieces of energy targeting the West Coast....busy times tracking ahead... 0z EPS...farther south with the snow mean thru Saturday... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 28, 2022 Report Share Posted February 28, 2022 NWS Hastings morning disco:: In addition...the flow will become more active as several disturbances will round the base of the trough across the southwest and cross the plains. With the cooler air then in place...could actually see a chance for snow across the local area this weekend and into next week as this more unsettled...and potentially beneficial period...is expected to continue into next week. Models have been hinting at this for several days and consistency continues to increase giving the hope for some much needed precipitation to the local area. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said: NWS Hastings morning disco:: In addition...the flow will become more active as several disturbances will round the base of the trough across the southwest and cross the plains. With the cooler air then in place...could actually see a chance for snow across the local area this weekend and into next week as this more unsettled...and potentially beneficial period...is expected to continue into next week. Models have been hinting at this for several days and consistency continues to increase giving the hope for some much needed precipitation to the local area. Boom! I hope you score Big in the snow dept. You should fair well in precip overall. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 28, 2022 Report Share Posted February 28, 2022 liking the trends over the last few day or so. hope it sticks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted March 1, 2022 Report Share Posted March 1, 2022 Up up and away the first storm goes! Not unusual for this time of year. Welcome meteorological spring! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2022 Models are trending towards a warm cutter into N Wisco/U.P. which doesn't really bode well for the trails up north. 0z Euro and GFS poke the warm nose really far north into the U.P. 0z EPS for both waves... 0z Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2022 Both the EPS/GEFS are suggesting the secondary wave to lay down some snow farther south... Would like that a warmer version could poke temps up near 60F around here on Sat... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 1, 2022 Report Share Posted March 1, 2022 Day 5 SPC has Iowa highlighted. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 1, 2022 Report Share Posted March 1, 2022 12Z GFS wants to dry slot much of Central Nebraska with the 2 waves. Nothing would surprise me with this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 1, 2022 Report Share Posted March 1, 2022 22 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12Z GFS wants to dry slot much of Central Nebraska with the 2 waves. Nothing would surprise me with this winter. Don't worry it develops rain just in time to mess up skiing and snowboarding for southern Wisconsin lol. Would love to see you all get rain then it all crap out by the time it gets here. But this winter really hates Nebraska and southern WI. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 1, 2022 Report Share Posted March 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, gimmesnow said: Don't worry it develops rain just in time to mess up skiing and snowboarding for southern Wisconsin lol. Would love to see you all get rain then it all crap out by the time it gets here. But this winter really hates Nebraska and southern WI. You just shake your head at how bad things have been for many on this board. Unless it is a big storm/blizzard, I'd just as soon have rain to help with our drought conditions. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 1, 2022 Report Share Posted March 1, 2022 12Z Canadian for 240 hours of precipitation. Just wow. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 1, 2022 Report Share Posted March 1, 2022 18 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12Z Canadian for 240 hours of precipitation. Just wow. lol that little tiny dry spot in SE Wisconsin is exactly where I want it to be, too bad it's still 10 days out. If that verified I'd be a very happy snowboarder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted March 1, 2022 Report Share Posted March 1, 2022 1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12Z Canadian for 240 hours of precipitation. Just wow. Those Pivotal weather map pink scaling always look shocking to the eye. Compare it to tropical tidbits and it looks wet and stormy but nothing crazy for early march. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 1, 2022 Report Share Posted March 1, 2022 how bad we lookin? Down and out with a brutal bug. 101 fever for the past 3 days 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 10 hours ago, Madtown said: how bad we lookin? Down and out with a brutal bug. 101 fever for the past 3 days Not looking good for the Northwoods of Wisco/U.P....sadly, this storm is trending warmer pulling up much warmer air out in front of it and tugging up a lot of moisture. The only positive is there will be enough cold air in place inititially to lay down some snow before the RN moves in with embedded storms. #slopfest. As long as temps/DP's don't surge to much it shouldn't be too bad. @Beltrami Island may be close enough to cash in... 0z Canadien is better.... The secondary piece is showing up on the models and trying to "stat pad" the seasonal snowfall's across the lower lakes and of course, KC peeps and @Clinton 0z Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 0z EPS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 6z GEFS both pieces 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 5 hours ago, Tom said: Not looking good for the Northwoods of Wisco/U.P....sadly, this storm is trending warmer pulling up much warmer air out in front of it and tugging up a lot of moisture. The only positive is there will be enough cold air in place inititially to lay down some snow before the RN moves in with embedded storms. #slopfest. As long as temps/DP's don't surge to much it shouldn't be too bad. @Beltrami Island may be close enough to cash in... 0z Canadien is better.... The secondary piece is showing up on the models and trying to "stat pad" the seasonal snowfall's across the lower lakes and of course, KC peeps and @Clinton 0z Euro... Sadly, the storm tracks would have to shift way nw for me to realistically hope for significant snow over the next 10 days....Duluth would have to be in the warm sector entirely. This storm track is classic minnesota precip climo, which leaves me in a position oh so close but out of the snow/precip shield. I can think of many instances where Ifalls 60 miles to my east gets 6"+ snow and I am left high and dry. I have 24" snow depth on March 2nd, and a week+ of solidly below freezing days ahead, so I can't really complain if I get missed over the next 10 days. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 What in the heck is the EURO trying to do early next week here in KC. It has a full blown snowstorm here after 80's this week. WOW!! Has some support from the GFS also. After that, maybe some really cold air to enter the pattern for another possible winter storm around the March 10-15th time frame. Today, pool like weather, Saturday thunderstorms, Sunday evening rain over to a snowstorm on Monday??? Let's Go! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 12z GEFS now seeing the 2nd wave a little better and lining up with the EPS from last night... It is also looking likely that the OHV gets a good soaking... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 0z UKIE... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 Per Gary’s blog this morning This is evolving now, and we will see if the models continue trending into this solution. Here is what I wrote to a Weather 20/20 customer in mid-December for this next week: "This period will begin with a great chance of our biggest snowstorm of the season." So, this next storm has been on our "LRC Radar" for over two months to arrive in these next few days. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 depressing. rain rain go away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 So, the 0z Euro decides to lay down more snow along the I-80 corridor from the 2nd wave instead of the 1st one....something is not right here... 0z EPS agrees... 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 6z GFS hits KC with a snowstorm on Monday. 6z GEFS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 Riding the line again Monday. Same all year, even in March? Can I get it to come north a little bit? Putting my new snow blower together on Saturday when it may be in the low to mid 60's. Another chance in 8-9 days as well. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 0Z GFS I get feet of snow, 06Z GFS I get 0. Really hard to put much stock in the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 12Z ICON for fun and giggles or tears. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 Hope to feel good enough to get a good ride in tomorrow. Not sure the trails stay open for the next snow after this weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 12z Euro 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 12z Euro It appears Pivotal is working for you? I am getting a 404 error, and there was a message about it being know the model images weren't working.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: It appears Pivotal is working for you? I am getting a 404 error, and there was a message about it being know the model images weren't working.... Same here, Pivotal not working on laptop or phone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc400 Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: It appears Pivotal is working for you? I am getting a 404 error, and there was a message about it being know the model images weren't working.... (3 March 2022) Web service has been restored. Plus features will be publicly available until we can confirm user logins are working later today. If you're still stuck, try going to the main page. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, brianc400 said: (3 March 2022) Web service has been restored. Plus features will be publicly available until we can confirm user logins are working later today. If you're still stuck, try going to the main page. Thanks. It works from the main page. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 12z GEFS and EPS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Hawkeye said: 12z Euro This looks ok! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 18z GFS: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, winterfreak said: 18z GFS: This map basically describes our entire winter in Nebraska. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted March 4, 2022 Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 But the gfs is on its own so I wouldn’t ride or die with it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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