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[Missing] March 2022 PNW Wx Discussion


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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Mentioned in the Feb thread, the recent downwelling OKW has been inefficient at depressing the thermocline east of the dateline.

I’m not sure why, tbh. Head scratcher. But unless there’s another one soon, the odds of a transition into El Niño seem to be decreasing markedly.

A genuine neutral year would be sweet.

Last one was 2013-14.

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Just now, RentonHillTC said:

wasnt there an equal level of surprise at how quickly and just how primed the system state came to be a month ago? Or am i thinking of something else. I remember seeing a tweet like "and all the sudden its 2015 again" or something like that

That was in relation to the intraseasonal state but yeah the midwinter flip to +TNH was a sight to behold. As if the system was dead set on taking that route.

As for ENSO, remains to be seen how it shakes out (seasonal transitions messy) but if the upcoming WPAC MJO transit doesn’t trigger a healthy OKW then it muddies the waters for the remainder of 2022.

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16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Mentioned in the Feb thread, the recent downwelling OKW has been inefficient at depressing the thermocline east of the dateline.

I’m not sure why, tbh. Head scratcher. But unless there’s another one soon, the odds of a transition into El Niño seem to be decreasing markedly.

I've got a warm neutral feeling to next winter. Not much snow. We're due for a dud in my area.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

A genuine neutral year would be sweet.

Last one was 2013-14.

I’ll drink to that. Easily my second favorite winter of all time and possibly my favorite weather year overall.

Snowed from November to April, multiple 12”+ snowfalls, including all-time record cold/snow in March, and a persistent snowpack through the winter with few warm-ups. Which almost never happens here.

Then it was followed by a deliciously cool summer in 2014, with multiple significant severe events in NW flow. Solid all around.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ll drink to that. Easily my second favorite winter of all time and possibly my favorite weather year overall.

Snowed from November to April, multiple 12”+ snowfalls, including all-time record cold/snow in March, and a persistent snowpack through the winter with few warm-ups. Which almost never happens here.

Then it was followed by a deliciously cool summer in 2014, with multiple significant severe events in NW flow. Solid all around.

And back where I used to live, July had its record hottest in 2014 (that still stands!). Wall to wall 90-99 degree weather for a month, then kind of averaged out in August. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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12Z ECMWF shows a mercifully dry weekend ahead... might have to get some yardwork done before the hammer likely drops again next week.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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36 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ll drink to that. Easily my second favorite winter of all time and possibly my favorite weather year overall.

Snowed from November to April, multiple 12”+ snowfalls, including all-time record cold/snow in March, and a persistent snowpack through the winter with few warm-ups. Which almost never happens here.

Then it was followed by a deliciously cool summer in 2014, with multiple significant severe events in NW flow. Solid all around.

A rare winter that was both enjoyable here locally and also really great for you. 1995-96 and 1978-79 would count as well.

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20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

A rare winter that was both enjoyable here locally and also really great for you. 1995-96 and 1978-79 would count as well.

I think 2018/19 would qualify as well. That was an excellent winter here, and February went bonkers out there in the NW.

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In other news, the new CANSIPS seasonal projects another brutal summer in the SW US.

Similar to 2021 with the expansive 4CH.

3ED299BB-F7E9-41AD-B055-C14EF780B450.thumb.png.2970b06888418242bc3abdc88180c38d.png

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

A genuine neutral year would be sweet.

Last one was 2013-14.

I don’t remember anything noteworthy that happened that season, I will need to look at my picture archives! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

In other news, the new CANSIPS seasonal projects another brutal summer in the SW US.

Similar to 2021 with the expansive 4CH.

3ED299BB-F7E9-41AD-B055-C14EF780B450.thumb.png.2970b06888418242bc3abdc88180c38d.png

Hard to pick out the 4CH in the sea of warmth looks like it’s maybe been displaced to the Nebraska/Iowa border. At least it shows the far NW closest to average 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Woke up with a lake front condo this morning! Am considering getting out there in my wellies and digging a trench to the main drain in hopes of bringing the water level down. The doggo was not pleased with the prospect of having to poop in 2+ inches of standing water. The Cedar river in Renton has also overflowed it's banks in multiple areas through downtown river walk. Good times! All of this is making me wonder what the Ides of March have in store for us...

IMG_7075.jpg

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9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I don’t remember anything noteworthy that happened that season, I will need to look at my picture archives! 

A cold, but mostly dry winter. That was one of the few times northwest Oregon had bigger snowstorms than me.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hard to pick out the 4CH in the sea of warmth looks like it’s maybe been displaced to the Nebraska/Iowa border. At least it shows the far NW closest to average 

Yes but that’s the type of pattern that could send big heat into the PNW with slight changes. And would roast the intermountain west.

Generally speaking, a large 4CH is not what you want to see if you’re hoping for a cool western summer.

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5 minutes ago, The Ms. Anthrop said:

Woke up with a lake front condo this morning! Am considering getting out there in my wellies and digging a trench to the main drain in hopes of bringing the water level down. The doggo was not pleased with the prospect of having to poop in 2+ inches of standing water. The Cedar river in Renton has also overflowed it's banks in multiple areas through downtown river walk. Good times! All of this is making me wonder what the Ides of March have in store for us...

IMG_7075.jpg

You mean over the walk/bike paths along the side of the river, not the actual embankments above those that would actually flood out into streets etc?

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Still dumping rain here.   

We must be over 2 inches on the day after the 6+ inches we got yesterday.    And guessing we are over 10 inches since Saturday evening.       

Looking forward to a few dry days ahead.

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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26 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

Geez, next month is already April…. 😂😂😂😂

At least Easter is a lot later this year ;)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

I've got a warm neutral feeling to next winter. Not much snow. We're due for a dud in my area.

Entire Olympia to Bellingham stretch is due for a dud. Pretty much every snow event in the last five years has been centered there.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Frozen was released in November, then it got cold.

Seahawks won the Superbowl then it got cold again.

No December has come close to that level of cold since. Average low of 9 degrees for the month at KLMT.

Snowed one day on Dec 6th, quick 5". Then inversion the rest of that one.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

February was our best month.   I think the dreaded "blob" was allegedly a factor.  It was the only year since I have been here that we didn't have a white Christmas. 

That’s right, it came back to me as I looked at pictures. We had that nice little overrunning one day event before Christmas and Lake Goodwin froze over in early February. Those were the highlights up here. 

F0CCC889-586C-45AD-A9FE-51DBD0615D7C.jpeg

BA460688-1957-4F52-A068-9436A12B9793.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

That's pretty impressive. I lived over 4000 feet high for 11 years and March rarely had highs freezing or below. 

I still think thats short lived, in middle of winter here we don't get 2 week long freezes.

Maybe not 2 week long freezes, but this was a top-10 warm winter for the majority of the region. There wasn’t much in the way of serious cold to be found (for the 3rd consecutive winter).

AB2F7186-0DCE-4D41-8469-C8961AEC9577.thumb.jpeg.9deaa8d3859fd67d1be7c80ef409609e.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

61F3F46E-DF9E-42FC-A585-CE6193BEFC4F.gif.00d2d2b668216bdb49d156eb47b92e3b.gif

Soil moisture getting real low in northern CA again.

Not sure how that is calculated... but the ground literally cannot hold any more water for a large part of western WA.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Maybe not 2 week long freezes, but this was a top-10 warm winter throughout the region. There wasn’t much in the way of serious cold to be found (for the 3rd consecutive winter).

AB2F7186-0DCE-4D41-8469-C8961AEC9577.thumb.jpeg.9deaa8d3859fd67d1be7c80ef409609e.jpeg

I bet December alone is why many stations are top 10 or 5 warmest. January wasn't too bad in cold temperature department. There were a healthy number of days below 40. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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33 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

You mean over the walk/bike paths along the side of the river, not the actual embankments above those that would actually flood out into streets etc?

Not the embankments that are about 7 feet above the river, no, but for example where the senior center is, the river has completely covered the path that's 6 ft wide, and is encroaching on the grass lawn. Looks like it's running about 2 ft deep on the path. I'll try to get a picture tonight if I can.

There were also two minor mudslides on Rainier Ave; one in the city proper almost directly across from the airport control tower (City of Renton/KC roads have done nothing but put cones out) and one about a mile and half further north on Rainier that was blocking the southbound lane just before the Stone House restaurant. Drove past it maybe 5 minutes after it happened at 4:30 and SDOT was already taking care of it. 

IMG_7071.jpg

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mt Shasta yesterday. 

EE528F0A-551D-4925-BF35-6B1E50F84135.jpeg

looks pretty bare, yikes.  A lot of that is just 'seasonal snow'. glaciers are going to gone from Shasta probably in the next 50 years, especially if the long term drying of Norcal continues

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18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mt Shasta yesterday. 

EE528F0A-551D-4925-BF35-6B1E50F84135.jpeg

Looks like snow depth in that area is currently 30-40% of normal

755088442_ScreenShot2022-03-01at12_53_11PM.thumb.png.ec7604fdd6116774f89decaf20518e78.png

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hard to pick out the 4CH in the sea of warmth looks like it’s maybe been displaced to the Nebraska/Iowa border. At least it shows the far NW closest to average 

Was thinking the same thing. It shows the marine layer intact along the coast of California, so that map might be overdone for the rest of the state. 

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