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[Missing] March 2022 PNW Wx Discussion


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6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... last week you said we would learn how everything shifts north and the AR event would end up in BC.    

And yet we still managed to pick up almost a foot of rain in 3 days in my area and SEA had one of the wettest days ever recorded and almost 5 inches of rain since Saturday.     Trust the EPS over the 18Z GFS.  

It did trend north. The 00z GFS is almost bone dry for about two weeks starting on Thursday. It is just not possible to enter a sustained rainy pattern. We pay for every rain event with weeks of dryness.
 

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52F with some light rain. Up to 0.3" on the month so a nice start.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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4 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

It did trend north. The 00z GFS is almost bone dry for about two weeks starting on Thursday. It is just not possible to enter a sustained rainy pattern. We pay for every rain event with weeks of dryness.
 

And yet PDX is +2 inches for the water year... while SEA is +7 inches and OLM is almost +9 inches and BLI is +6 inches.

You said this recent AR event would end up in BC and that definitely did not happen.

It has not been a dry rainy season from NW OR northward.    And there has been multiple snow events and flooding events.   Solid Nina.    The fact that it has come in waves with some nice periods in between makes it more enjoyable in my opinion.     All of the models now point to zonal flow starting next week so its going to get wet again.  

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11 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... last week you said we would learn how everything shifts north and the AR event would end up in BC.    

And yet we still managed to pick up almost a foot of rain in 3 days in my area and SEA had one of the wettest days ever recorded and almost 5 inches of rain since Saturday.     Trust the EPS over the 18Z GFS.  

All I know is that we need that rain here. I’m getting worried for the ecosystem and am becoming annoyed with all the warmer weather pests that are becoming problematic like Coypu. Had one of them below our house.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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10 hours ago, gusky said:

I'll have to check it out later tonight. Interested to see how consistent the quality is. Like I said before, Seattle is quite impressive but for some environmental issues. But the fact that I can navigate my way around the city based on specific buildings and landmarks, in a 1:1 earth map, is still mind-blowing to me.

It is really impressive, I *may or may not* have about 800 hours in the sim....🙄  If only I could count that towards real flight hours....

The detail is good enough I can fly the areas I have lived/grown up in per the common moniker of VFR (visually follow roads).  Following Mt Baker Hwy up to the ski area can be a little tricky if I'm not using my head tracking set up.  The hard part is keeping an eye on the road while avoiding "cumulo-granite clouds" as you get up close to the ski area.  With head tracking its a piece of cake.

I have tried the google map plug in, but I haven't quite decided which one I like better, it seems to depend on the area.

There is a freeware Airbus H145 (helicopter) that is a lot of fun, and it makes it a lot easier to get in and check things out since you can hover or slowly pivot around the object of interest.

 

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6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

It has not been a dry rainy season from NW OR northward.    And there has been multiple snow events and flooding events.   Solid Nina.    The fact that it has come in waves with some nice periods in between makes it more enjoyable in my opinion.     All of the models now point to zonal flow starting next week so its going to get wet again.  

Lies.

That dry midwinter stretch neutered the benefits of the early season surpluses.

6A1B4895-D196-4025-93F8-D7B59DC9EF1A.thumb.jpeg.410763b9850dea01ce3fa07a7408c4f5.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lies.

6A1B4895-D196-4025-93F8-D7B59DC9EF1A.thumb.jpeg.410763b9850dea01ce3fa07a7408c4f5.jpeg

😃

It has been a wet rainy season... regardless of what that map shows.    But of course that map is only from December and I am talking about the entire rainy season which begins October 1st.  The actual data from actual stations tells the tale.

SEA +7.01

OLM +8.76

BLI +5.68

HWM +7.67

UIL +19.69  (yes... 19 inches above normal since October 1st)

AST +6.79

PDX +2.08

 

That is not just random... its been wetter than normal from PDX to BLI.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

😃

It has been a wet rainy season... regardless of what that map shows.    The actual data from actual stations tells the tale.

SEA +7.01

OLM +8.76

BLI +5.68

HWM +7.67

UIL +19.69  (yes... 19 inches above normal since October 1st)

AST +6.79

PDX +2.08

 

That is not just random... its been wetter than normal from PDX to BLI.

 

 

It’s a map of DJF precip at all regional stations.

Doesn’t include Oct/Nov, but the benefits of that were largely erased by the midwinter dry spell. Context is important.

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Just now, Phil said:

It’s DJF precip at all regional stations, not just the ones you cherry picked.

Doesn’t include Oct/Nov, but the benefits of that were largely erased by the midwinter dry spell.

Those aren't cherry picked stations.  😃 

Those are all the major reporting stations from PDX to BLI.     And DJF was closer to normal but we made up ground in a big way since last weekend... completely wiping out the dry period statistically for western WA.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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19 minutes ago, Phil said:

If only this could happen in July. 😩

1385468E-8BDD-40D1-B014-7C8F271D32F0.thumb.png.d8266a132920e4bd053260b82a3d5fb1.png

Its interesting to see the models focusing the cold in the Midwest and NE in the long range now.   I was expecting that to be farther west.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

It is really impressive, I *may or may not* have about 800 hours in the sim....🙄  If only I could count that towards real flight hours....

The detail is good enough I can fly the areas I have lived/grown up in per the common moniker of VFR (visually follow roads).  Following Mt Baker Hwy up to the ski area can be a little tricky if I'm not using my head tracking set up.  The hard part is keeping an eye on the road while avoiding "cumulo-granite clouds" as you get up close to the ski area.  With head tracking its a piece of cake.

I have tried the google map plug in, but I haven't quite decided which one I like better, it seems to depend on the area.

There is a freeware Airbus H145 (helicopter) that is a lot of fun, and it makes it a lot easier to get in and check things out since you can hover or slowly pivot around the object of interest.

 

Wow, do the physics of the helicopter actually work? Seems like it would have issues with plane physics. I'll have to get that one.

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its interesting to see the models focusing the cold in the Midwest and NE in the long range now.   I was expecting that to be farther west.  

Yeah, at least in the very long range. The center of the cold anomaly might move around with time, but the cold conus theme is fairly consistent.

This transition lines up excellently with the stratwarm and location of the parent vortex in Siberia following w-2 response, as well. For once it was a clear signal with a moderate to high degree of predictability.

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But alas, it does not meet criteria for a SSW, and the vortex will likely recover before the final warming (though this might set the stage for it).

So the MJO will have less help from the associated reduction in static stability, which reduces the odds of significant WWBs over the IPWP/WPAC, and therefore the odds of a transition into El Niño appear to be decreasing. Or at the very least, it is now unlikely to be a quick transition.

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Jan-Mar is the most crucial time of year when it comes to setting the stage for ENSO. So every missed opportunity to cross that threshold has consequences.

Could be the system has tripped and fallen just before reaching the finish line. Question is, will it pick itself up and sprint those last 5 meters before the other racers (possible evolutionary pathways) pass it?

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13 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

GFS is having a wee bit of trouble figuring this one out. image.thumb.png.07202c420ab7e79428b8c3fb95597d52.png

This would actually be the coldest airmass to drop into the CONUS all winter. -30°C 850mb temps in the N-Plains, verbatim. Maybe @hawkstwelve will catch some last minute action.

3B0A25A5-251D-45D5-BD5F-622DE599DB3A.thumb.png.b8f74ae1ffb0566cc66eceeab59df22b.png

 

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12 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Flight simulator is great. But Dallas, TX is a joke. Just a bunch of generic blocks.

I love Troutdale area when the east winds are blowing…..fun landings.  I can also take the Cessna off like a cub piper with no runway if winds are blowing hard enough 😂

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Wow the GFS for a few days showed the storm door opening for us. Now it has the same pattern we have seen since Jan 1st. This historic dry pattern is just getting crazy now. Our snowpack survey at Philips station just came in at 68% of normal even though we were at 160% of normal Jan 1st. March is our snowiest month and it is looking bleak

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12z GFS has a full blown SSW/final warming in the clown range, after the initial body blow this week.

A much more interesting evolution, imo. And all else being equal, would give the MJO an extra boost along/east of the dateline.

AD0D7B87-A719-4F8A-9828-E015BB7C0C8C.thumb.gif.b26d7cfe699ef59597f611ff1913fd37.gif

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17 hours ago, gusky said:

Don't know if anyone cares about this but tried Microsoft Flight Simulator and Seattle is modeled really well. The game uses real-time flight and weather data

 

What are you running it on and how are you controlling it?

I got pretty proficient in FSX on a laptop using just a mouse and keyboard, so when I tried the new FS I was disappointed that everything I remembered didn't work.

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z GFS shows a worst case scenario pattern for March almost no precip after today stubborn offshore ridge doesn’t want to budge 

Best case scenario for Tim, though. All about perspective.

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5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z GFS shows a worst case scenario pattern for March almost no precip after today stubborn offshore ridge doesn’t want to budge 

Yep. Like I said, we pay for every rain event with weeks of ridging. But, Tim reassured me that we are entering a sustained wet period, so we should be fine. 

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3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Yep. Like I said, we pay for every rain event with weeks of ridging. But, Tim reassured me that we are entering a sustained wet period, so we should be fine. 

Still could happen... EPS shows zonal flow developing.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Cliff Mass posted a wrap-up on the massive AR event that just occurred...

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/03/some-remarkable-precipitation-totals.html

Our atmospheric river event is over, but the effects--from flooding and avalanches to landslides--are not.

The heaviest precipitation (almost entirely rain) fell from the Olympics and central Cascades south into NW Oregon.    But a very beneficial aspect of this storm was the moderate rainfall over far eastern Washington and Idaho.   Dryland wheat farmers are probably very happy now.  Water resources around the state are in good shape now.

Daily precipitation records were broken throughout the region, on both sides of the Cascades.  Just too many to list.

And with all that precipitation, many local rivers are at very high levels.  Quite a few rivers in western Washington, in the Cascades, and even on the eastern slopes of the Cascades are experiencing daily records (records for March 1)--as shown by the black dots below. 

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Cliff Mass posted a wrap-up on the massive AR event that just occurred...

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/03/some-remarkable-precipitation-totals.html

Our atmospheric river event is over, but the effects--from flooding and avalanches to landslides--are not.

The heaviest precipitation (almost entirely rain) fell from the Olympics and central Cascades south into NW Oregon.    But a very beneficial aspect of this storm was the moderate rainfall over far eastern Washington and Idaho.   Dryland wheat farmers are probably very happy now.  Water resources around the state are in good shape now.

Daily precipitation records were broken throughout the region, on both sides of the Cascades.  Just too many to list.

And with all that precipitation, many local rivers are at very high levels.  Quite a few rivers in western Washington, in the Cascades, and even on the eastern slopes of the Cascades are experiencing daily records (records for March 1)--as shown by the black dots below. 

still moderate to severe drought in eastern WA.  long term this does help but we need ALOT more

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59 minutes ago, Phil said:

But alas, it does not meet criteria for a SSW, and the vortex will likely recover before the final warming (though this might set the stage for it).

So the MJO will have less help from the associated reduction in static stability, which reduces the odds of significant WWBs over the IPWP/WPAC, and therefore the odds of a transition into El Niño appear to be decreasing. Or at the very least, it is now unlikely to be a quick transition.

Sleepwalk into a nino 2014 style?

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

still moderate to severe drought in eastern WA.  long term this does help but we need ALOT more

Good news is that Spokane is only -.81 for the water year since October and Pullman is actually +2.26.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good news is that Spokane is only -.81 for the water year since October and Pullman is actually +2.26.

will probably take another AR or 2 to overcome that deficit.  Spokane isn't known for massive rain events due to shadowing.

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