[Missing] March 2022 PNW Wx Discussion

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

#niña

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

PDX is busting hard for rainfall. Tonight keeps getting more and more watered down. I bet we will end up with less than .50'' for the event which will put us around .75'' for the ''really wet pattern'' that started on Saturday. All forecasts had us pegged at around 2''. 

Thursday has evaporated. Friday evening/Saturday is getting watered down. Beyond that, the Euro is wet (as always) and the GFS is not. The Euro has been getting beaten down by the GFS lately. At one point, the Euro had us getting hosed on Thursday. Now, nada. It also had us getting 3'' for the week starting on last Saturday. Looking more like 1''. 

A very simple programming change to the models to make them much more accurate for us would be to simply divide the output QPF by 2. Voila.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 0.71” as of this morning for the month. Got down to 43. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We're at 5.23" on the month now. Things have been focused more south, not the worst thing that could have happened. 

[Meatyorologist]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We're at 5.23" on the month now. Things have been focused more south, not the worst thing that could have happened. 

It’s a step up from Jan-Feb, for sure.

[MossMan]

Windy! 

.01” on the day. 

[MossMan]

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

If only the GFS would stop being so stubborn (and correct).

 

[Phishy Wx]

51 minutes ago, MossMan said:

did you play football for the Dallas Cowboys?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range GFS has been pretty wild the past few runs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yet another run showing some really active and chilly weather late in the month. Also very possible we see some really spring-like weather next week after the chilly weekend trough.

[TT-SEA]

Noticing that there are some trees flowering and even leafing out now on the Issaquah traffic cams that I have bookmarked.   I also see its not raining there this morning... but should be soon.   Its drizzling here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Two years ago today we had a pretty nice snowfall. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well it looks like the operational GFS is a pretty big warm outlier next week, at face value could see some 70+ readings in the valley if it verified. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is more like the ICON, warm front rain over NW Oregon and W. Washington as opposed to the big transitory ridge on the GFS. 

[RentonHill]

grass

[MossMan]

49 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

did you play football for the Dallas Cowboys?

According to my dad I was named after him, according to my mom that is not the case. He was a Cowboy when I was born. 

[T-Town]

Rain is starting here. 49 degrees. 

[rsktkr]

18 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tom Brady is BACK!

I am so incredibly sick of that dude that I am taking a year off from the NFL.

Only college football and hockey for me next fall/winter.

My boycott will last until he retires for real.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

I am so incredibly sick of that dude that I am taking a year off from the NFL.

Only college football and hockey for me next fall/winter.

My boycott will last until he retires for real.

Thats how I feel about big baby Lebron. At least his team sucks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 years ago today.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Mostly cloudy and 48 this morning after a low of 42 light east wind and  no rain yet today 

Picked up .31” rain yesterday with a 52/41 spread there were some breezy south winds in the afternoon too 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like NWS got around to updating their data for the 10th, a lot of stations were having issues reporting their six hour lows that day.

PDX officially fell to 28 that morning, 26 at VUO, 25 at Salem, 25 at Eugene.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Two years ago today we had a pretty nice snowfall. 

Meanwhile I was starting to get the veggie garden ready for the season! (The day after) 

[Phishy Wx]

the good 'ol days.  back when it use to snow

[TacomaWaWx]

48 and light rain. 0.07” today and 0.77” for March. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

56F and cloudy. Looks like 2.11" of rain on the month so far. Doing good!

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

56F and cloudy. Looks like 2.11" of rain on the month so far. Doing good!

Wow first time in a long time you’ve had more rain than me…3 times more roughly. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thats how I feel about big baby Lebron. At least his team sucks.

I doubt the Bucs will be very good this year. Very unlikely they will be as good as last year...that was probably Tommy boy's last shot at adding to his ring collection.

[Phil]

 

[Front Ranger]

24 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

I'm feeling a record cold/wet April and May for North Bend. 2011 on roids.

[GobBluth]

38 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm feeling a record cold/wet April and May for North Bend. 2011 on roids.

What's prevailing wisdom in this forum on the strength of the 4CH this summer?

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

That would be great news for nearby snowpack, no complaints here! I'm hoping that the WA and OR mountains  get pummeled these next few months. 

1.55" of rain so far this week, 34.66" for the year.

It would be wasted up here.   We don't have any water issues.   When the precip is focused up here... its almost always at the expense of CA and usually OR.     But nature seems to love dumping precip on the areas that don't really need it and screwing the areas that desperately need it... so it would not surprise me.    

[Phil]

30 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

What's prevailing wisdom in this forum on the strength of the 4CH this summer?

Probably another bloated 4CH this summer. Or, at least I don’t see anything to suggest otherwise.

Probably not to the same extent as 2021, though. And generally speaking, a large 4CH correlates to hotter temperatures in the interior West more than the PNW. Recall 2012 also had a large 4CH, but it didn’t lead to significant heatwaves West of the Cascades.

[TacomaWaWx]

Very dull damp day…but we needed the mountain snow. 0.26” so far today down to 46 from a high of 48.

[Phil]

Holy cow, this is an impressive trade burst.

Seems the midwinter OKW has failed to push the system over the edge, and there will be no transition to +ENSO this year.

 

[BLI snowman]

4 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

grass

Winter is coming! (in 9 months)

[Cascadia_Wx]

Rain has been falling apart on radar as it moves in most the day. Up to .03” so far, 53 degrees hopefully rainfall rates improve tonight.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Holy cow, this is an impressive trade burst.

Seems the midwinter OKW has failed to push the system over the edge, and there will be no transition to +ENSO this year.

 

1975-76

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Snow in the central Cascades is not wasted, whatsoever. Snowpack is at 90% of normal. Olympics are at 85% of normal. Cooler temps and more precip in the Spring are a good thing.

It is wasted if it comes at the expense of the areas that actually need it.    Its pretty hard to get a pattern that is dumping rain and mountain snow in CA and in western WA at the same time.   I am talking about just precip anomalies of course.  We are fine regardless of what happens... summer will be just fine for us like it always is.    Its silly for anyone to be hitting the panic button up here.  Sort of like a billionaire begging for more money.