[Missing] March 2022 PNW Wx Discussion

[awright-31]

03-29-22 OBS for MBY

High temp - 55* at 2:00 pm
Low temp - 41* at 4:00 am

New precip - 0.00"
March precip to date - 2.82" 
(53% of monthly normal)

[Phil]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

PDX hasn't seen a high below 50 in April since 2012. It used to be an almost annual occurrence. 

I’ll wager it happens this year. Intraseasonal state looks primed for move into -PNA mid-month.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ll wager it happens this year. Intraseasonal state looks primed for -PNA mid-month.

We're quite dew!

[Omegaraptor]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ll wager it happens this year. Intraseasonal state looks primed for move into -PNA mid-month.

If we can get a nice cold front to move through at the right time of day...

[RentonHill]

Aurora from twisp earlier. Taken from here: https://www.facebook.com/pnwtrailchick/

[Meatyorologist]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

The D10-15 EPS goes hard core -PNA. Looks snowy in the higher elevations. 

This has a good feeling to it. Strongest signal since December for deep west based troughing.

Also, at face value this would be a groovy severe wx pattern in the plains. It’s been a good 5-6 years since the last truly active severe season there.

[Meatyorologist]

April 2011 was astounding. Won’t happen but I would love a repeat

…This goes for May of that year too

[TigerWoodsLibido]

42F and clearing. It feels like I can see a faint blue/green glow to the north.

[Phil]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

This has a good feeling to it. Strongest signal since December for deep west based troughing.

Also, at face value this would be a groovy severe wx pattern in the plains. It’s been a good 5-6 years since the last truly active severe season there.

Yeah it is a long overdue pattern. And I’m perfectly fine with eastern ridging in April. Not much humidity at this time of year and it still cools down at night.

Last year made a weak attempt at this type of pattern, but west-Pacific influence was just a bit too much. That doesn’t look like as much of a factor this year, so far at least. The -SSTAs are centered in Niño 4, the IPWP has re-centered farther west, and there is a new upwelling OKW ongoing (we had a downwelling wave this time last year).

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS long range was salivation-worthy, bringing an extended period of cold onshore flow and an airmass that's just about as cold as you can get in April.

[Meatyorologist]

Throwback pattern

[Timmy]

06z is a thing of beauty for the west coast.

[TT-SEA]

42 minutes ago, Timmy said:

06z is a thing of beauty for the west coast.

The 06Z GFS focuses the wettest anomalies over western Oregon.     Not sure how this will play out... but I hope CA also ends up much wetter than normal.   A deep western trough can often be fairly dry in western WA and SW BC.     Unfortunately it seems like every time we see a pattern like this advertised in the models... the precip ends up being focused up here at the expense of OR and CA.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 40 this morning. Currently +1.3 for the month as of yesterday. 

[MossMan]

Currently raining and 39 degrees. I could really use a week of sun and 70’s. 

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

All Eugene precipitation stats in minus territory as March closes out.

Calendar YTD at about 53% of normal.

If this keeps up for another decade or two the southern half of Oregon might look much different. 

[Timmy Supercell]

No thunder last night. It did get windy ahead of that line though. 

Sometimes it's not meant to be for the far northeastern section of the state. Western KY had tornado warnings, while the instability just about all dies at my place. 

[MossMan]

Could be wrong but I believe I just had some positive splats. 38 and dumping. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like there isn’t any snow at 2400’ on orcas island this morning. Have been up there the last several years around this time…and they’ve had snow this late every year since 2018 except this year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gonna be a cold April. 

[Phil]

49 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently raining and 39 degrees. I could really use a week of sun and 70’s. 

Aren’t 70s are your average high in mid-July?

Kinda early to expect that.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna be a cold April. 

Ehhh... there might be a cold period in the middle but there could easily be a flip to a warm pattern later in the month.    See 2018 for an example.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Ehhh... there might be a cold period in the middle but there could easily be a flip to a warm pattern later in the month.    See 2018 for an example.  

I’m sure he’s well aware lol. he’s probably just trying to give you anxiety about an April 2011 repeat (that likely won’t happen). 

[Phil]

33 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

No thunder last night. It did get windy ahead of that line though. 

Sometimes it's not meant to be for the far northeastern section of the state. Western KY had tornado warnings, while the instability just about all dies at my place. 

Problem for you was the nocturnal timing of the frontal passage. This early in the season you need those to pass in the 18z-00z window.

Becomes less of an issue with time, but it’s still late March.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ehhh... there might be a cold period in the middle but there could easily be a flip to a warm pattern later in the month.    See 2018 for an example.  

Cooler than average April seems likelier than not. Can’t be certain about it, but the odds are better with a well established -ENSO low pass signature in the tropics (much more so than last year, or any year since 2012, at this point in the seasonal cycle).

At the very least, we seem to have broken away from the +ENSO transition/niña decay years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Get ready for snow Tim. 

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Problem for you was the nocturnal timing of the frontal passage. This early in the season you need those to pass in the 18z-00z window.

Becomes less of an issue with time, but it’s still late March.

Its strange though, the lines in December had no issue continuing into the early morning hours with severe weather in the Lexington to Nashville areas. You'd think March has less of a night time impact on storms than in the early Winter.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Its strange though, the lines in December had no issue continuing into the early morning hours with severe weather in the Lexington to Nashville areas. You'd think March has less of a night time impact on storms than in the early Winter.

Depends on the type of setup. Dewpoints and instability were much higher with the December event, which is integral to nocturnal events like that.

Moisture starts increasing rapidly in the coming months, so the instability issue won’t be an issue for much longer (almost never an issue in the summer months when CAPE can surpass 4000J/kg).

I can’t recall a single nighttime severe thunderstorm here before mid/late May. But your area might do slightly better than mine in that department.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Lot down to 33F Close to freezing. Currently 44F nd partly cloudy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just hope Tim and his family are prepared. 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I just hope Tim and his family are prepared. 

Careful man, with that type of attitude ma’ nature could change her mind and plop a death ridge right over you.

I never comment on LR eastern troughing in the summer months. Almost always vanishes when I open my mouth.

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

If this keeps up for another decade or two the southern half of Oregon might look much different. 

As bad as it’s been in Eugene... it’s still a garden of Eden compared to places south of the Rogue-Umpqua divide. They are already seeing some pretty serious ecosystem impacts I believe.

Even when we get negative temp departures every single month down there still somehow manages to torch regardless of the pattern. See this February.

[Skagit Weather]

I went out for 5 hours last night (well, I slept in my car for part of it and had the automatic trigger going) to shoot the northern lights. The best aurora was 9:00-9:30 p.m., and was decently visible to the naked eye (from what I hear), but I got out there about 9:45 and there was nothing basically the whole night. The one exception was for two minutes just after 11 p.m. when I shot this red pillar which was very faintly visible to the naked eye.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

As bad as it’s been in Eugene... it’s still a garden of Eden compared to places south of the Rogue-Umpqua divide. They are already seeing some pretty serious ecosystem impacts I believe.

Even when we get negative temp departures every single month down there still somehow manages to torch regardless of the pattern. See this February.

And these conditions are going to continue to creep northward over the coming decades...

[Omegaraptor]

Well if this thing ends up verifying you have me to thank. I left my skis back home after spring break.

[MossMan]

55 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Get ready for snow Tim. 

I had positive splats this morning…It’s coming. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

54 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Lot down to 33F Close to freezing. Currently 44F nd partly cloudy.

Haven’t had a any temps below 35 up this way since the 10th 

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And these conditions are going to continue to creep northward over the coming decades...

Except for Tim’s house, of course. He’s *drought proof*.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 57/41 day here yesterday pretty seasonable picked up about .07” in scattered showers 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Except for Tim’s house, of course. He’s *drought proof*.

Indeed.    The c-zone assures that.