[Missing] March 2022 PNW Wx Discussion

[AlTahoe]

Wow the GFS for a few days showed the storm door opening for us. Now it has the same pattern we have seen since Jan 1st. This historic dry pattern is just getting crazy now. Our snowpack survey at Philips station just came in at 68% of normal even though we were at 160% of normal Jan 1st. March is our snowiest month and it is looking bleak

[Phil]

12z GFS has a full blown SSW/final warming in the clown range, after the initial body blow this week.

A much more interesting evolution, imo. And all else being equal, would give the MJO an extra boost along/east of the dateline.

[jakerepp]

17 hours ago, gusky said:

Don't know if anyone cares about this but tried Microsoft Flight Simulator and Seattle is modeled really well. The game uses real-time flight and weather data

 

What are you running it on and how are you controlling it?

I got pretty proficient in FSX on a laptop using just a mouse and keyboard, so when I tried the new FS I was disappointed that everything I remembered didn't work.

[Chris]

8 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Wow the GFS for a few days showed the storm door opening for us. Now it has the same pattern we have seen since Jan 1st. This historic dry pattern is just getting crazy now. Our snowpack survey at Philips station just came in at 68% of normal even though we were at 160% of normal Jan 1st. March is our snowiest month and it is looking bleak

Given the GFS track record, I wouldn't call it bleak yet.  The EPS looks better.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z GFS shows a worst case scenario pattern for March almost no precip after today stubborn offshore ridge doesn’t want to budge 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z GFS shows a worst case scenario pattern for March almost no precip after today stubborn offshore ridge doesn’t want to budge 

Best case scenario for Tim, though. All about perspective.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z GFS shows a worst case scenario pattern for March almost no precip after today stubborn offshore ridge doesn’t want to budge 

Yep. Like I said, we pay for every rain event with weeks of ridging. But, Tim reassured me that we are entering a sustained wet period, so we should be fine. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Yep. Like I said, we pay for every rain event with weeks of ridging. But, Tim reassured me that we are entering a sustained wet period, so we should be fine. 

Still could happen... EPS shows zonal flow developing.  

[RentonHillTC]

[TT-SEA]

Cliff Mass posted a wrap-up on the massive AR event that just occurred...

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/03/some-remarkable-precipitation-totals.html

Our atmospheric river event is over, but the effects--from flooding and avalanches to landslides--are not.

The heaviest precipitation (almost entirely rain) fell from the Olympics and central Cascades south into NW Oregon.    But a very beneficial aspect of this storm was the moderate rainfall over far eastern Washington and Idaho.   Dryland wheat farmers are probably very happy now.  Water resources around the state are in good shape now.

Daily precipitation records were broken throughout the region, on both sides of the Cascades.  Just too many to list.

And with all that precipitation, many local rivers are at very high levels.  Quite a few rivers in western Washington, in the Cascades, and even on the eastern slopes of the Cascades are experiencing daily records (records for March 1)--as shown by the black dots below. 

[Chris]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Cliff Mass posted a wrap-up on the massive AR event that just occurred...

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/03/some-remarkable-precipitation-totals.html

 

The heaviest precipitation (almost entirely rain) fell from the Olympics and central Cascades south into NW Oregon.    But a very beneficial aspect of this storm was the moderate rainfall over far eastern Washington and Idaho.   Dryland wheat farmers are probably very happy now.  Water resources around the state are in good shape now.

 

Daily precipitation records were broken throughout the region, on both sides of the Cascades.  Just too many to list.

And with all that precipitation, many local rivers are at very high levels.  Quite a few rivers in western Washington, in the Cascades, and even on the eastern slopes of the Cascades are experiencing daily records (records for March 1)--as shown by the black dots below. 

Unfortunately eastern Oregon got next to nothing.  John Day recorded .02".

[Phishy Wx]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Cliff Mass posted a wrap-up on the massive AR event that just occurred...

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/03/some-remarkable-precipitation-totals.html

Our atmospheric river event is over, but the effects--from flooding and avalanches to landslides--are not.

The heaviest precipitation (almost entirely rain) fell from the Olympics and central Cascades south into NW Oregon.    But a very beneficial aspect of this storm was the moderate rainfall over far eastern Washington and Idaho.   Dryland wheat farmers are probably very happy now.  Water resources around the state are in good shape now.

Daily precipitation records were broken throughout the region, on both sides of the Cascades.  Just too many to list.

And with all that precipitation, many local rivers are at very high levels.  Quite a few rivers in western Washington, in the Cascades, and even on the eastern slopes of the Cascades are experiencing daily records (records for March 1)--as shown by the black dots below. 

still moderate to severe drought in eastern WA.  long term this does help but we need ALOT more

[Cascadia_Wx]

59 minutes ago, Phil said:

But alas, it does not meet criteria for a SSW, and the vortex will likely recover before the final warming (though this might set the stage for it).

So the MJO will have less help from the associated reduction in static stability, which reduces the odds of significant WWBs over the IPWP/WPAC, and therefore the odds of a transition into El Niño appear to be decreasing. Or at the very least, it is now unlikely to be a quick transition.

Sleepwalk into a nino 2014 style?

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z gfs ensemble through day 12 seems like the operational has been a warm and dry outlier the last several runs guess we’ll see what happens 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

still moderate to severe drought in eastern WA.  long term this does help but we need ALOT more

Good news is that Spokane is only -.81 for the water year since October and Pullman is actually +2.26.

[Phil]

D7-12 average, 850mb temp anomaly, 12z GEFS.

Impressive.

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good news is that Spokane is only -.81 for the water year since October and Pullman is actually +2.26.

will probably take another AR or 2 to overcome that deficit.  Spokane isn't known for massive rain events due to shadowing.

[Cascadia_Wx]

South valley appears to be getting some needed rainfall this morning hopefully this band sits in the same spot most of the day 

48 with light rain here and .20” so far today 57/49 yesterday with .42” rain 

[Eujunga]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

South valley appears to be getting some needed rainfall this morning hopefully this band sits in the same spot most of the day 

48 with light rain here and .20” so far today 57/49 yesterday with .42” rain 

It's been drippy but nothing drought-shattering. 1.11" storm total here. Enough to bring soil moistures back up a bit at least.

[gusky]

1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

What are you running it on and how are you controlling it?

I got pretty proficient in FSX on a laptop using just a mouse and keyboard, so when I tried the new FS I was disappointed that everything I remembered didn't work.

It released on Xbox Cloud Gaming the other day, which was great bc I have no other way to play it. It runs surprisingly well if you have a decent internet connection, highly reccomend

[MossMan]

Dumping buckets now after a nice warm and dry morning. 

[MossMan]

26 minutes ago, Phil said:

D7-12 average, 850mb temp anomaly, 12z GEFS.

Impressive.

You need to shift that dark rosey color west over Washington and Oregon. 
Thanks. 

[Phishy Wx]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

You need to shift that dark rosey color west over Washington and Oregon. 
Thanks. 

well need to move the rockies, anyone have any excavation equipment?

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

well need to move the rockies, anyone have any excavation equipment?

We’ve gotten cold many times in the past with the Rockies there just takes a deep enough airmass and the right 500mb pattern both of which are harder to come by these days esp by the second week of March 

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 hours ago, gusky said:

Wow, do the physics of the helicopter actually work? Seems like it would have issues with plane physics. I'll have to get that one.

It's not too bad.  It's the only one that does not require an external program to run the physics.  It seems to be somewhat close to what I have flown in DCS and Xplane 11, though still pretty "dumbed down."  I can actually hover in MSFS, and I never could consistently get a somewhat stable hover in DCS with the Gazelle, Huey or Mi-8.

 

It will be interesting to see what the difference ends up being once MS officially incorporates rotorcraft physics support.

 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Euro still looking the best out of any model for a pinching off high and undercutting scenario days 7-10

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, Jginmartini said:

I love Troutdale area when the east winds are blowing…..fun landings.  I can also take the Cessna off like a cub piper with no runway if winds are blowing hard enough

KBLI and the Frasier outflows is a hoot!

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

What are you running it on and how are you controlling it?

I got pretty proficient in FSX on a laptop using just a mouse and keyboard, so when I tried the new FS I was disappointed that everything I remembered didn't work.

If you are on a tight budget, you can't beat this controller.  It has a simple throttle, and twist for yaw, and it's on sale now for $30.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00009OY9U/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

 

Honestly most of my hours are logged on this, because my flight sim station is also my work desk.

 

 

[SnowWillarrive]

34 minutes ago, MossMan said:

You need to shift that dark rosey color west over Washington and Oregon. 
Thanks. 

You know what would be awesome. The Rockies and Cascades running horizontal across North America at 45 degrees latitude with no mountain ranges north of us

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Euro still looking the best out of any model for a pinching off high and undercutting scenario days 7-10

Classic transition to a wet pattern on the 12Z ECMWF.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Zonal flow across the Pacific by day 10

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

It has been a wet rainy season... regardless of what that map shows.    But of course that map is only from December and I am talking about the entire rainy season which begins October 1st.  The actual data from actual stations tells the tale.

SEA +7.01

OLM +8.76

BLI +5.68

HWM +7.67

UIL +19.69  (yes... 19 inches above normal since October 1st)

AST +6.79

PDX +2.08

 

That is not just random... its been wetter than normal from PDX to BLI.

 

 

How about the rest of the region, like Salem, Corvallis, Eugene, Roseburg, Medford etc? The PNW is more than just PDX north...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Eujunga said:

It's been drippy but nothing drought-shattering. 1.11" storm total here. Enough to bring soil moistures back up a bit at least.

Airport doing better than here. We are at 0.8" on the east side of town. Hopefully we can get an inch out of this until the next active setup.

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

How about the rest of the region, like Salem, Corvallis, Eugene, Roseburg, Medford etc? The PNW is more than just PDX north...

Discussing the rainfall departures for NW OR and western WA there.     Did not say anything about the entire PNW or the rest of the west coast.    Obviously very different elsewhere as been discussed.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS out through day 10 so far and already shows a big shift to wet zonal flow... I think its coming.     

[TT-SEA]

12Z control run is even more emphatic on a wet pattern developing... looks similar to the 12Z ECMWF.

 

[gusky]

42 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

It's not too bad.  It's the only one that does not require an external program to run the physics.  It seems to be somewhat close to what I have flown in DCS and Xplane 11, though still pretty "dumbed down."  I can actually hover in MSFS, and I never could consistently get a somewhat stable hover in DCS with the Gazelle, Huey or Mi-8.

 

It will be interesting to see what the difference ends up being once MS officially incorporates rotorcraft physics support.

 

 

A dumbed down physics model is what I need anyway until I spend some time in the game anyway. Definitely can imagine a lot of cool updates for the game

[jakerepp]

39 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

If you are on a tight budget, you can't beat this controller.  It has a simple throttle, and twist for yaw, and it's on sale now for $30.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00009OY9U/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

 

Honestly most of my hours are logged on this, because my flight sim station is also my work desk.

 

 

Awesome, I was just looking at that but it seemed too cheap to be good lol.

[Chewbacca Defense]

7 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Awesome, I was just looking at that but it seemed too cheap to be good lol.

The design has been around forever, and I just got my second one.  I can't remember when I got the first one, but I think it has been at least 7-8 years ago.  I probably paid $80-90 for the first one.  They have definitely recouped their up front costs, and there are so many other options out there now, so the price makes sense.  The new one I just got does have a touch of slop in the Yaw axis, but for $30-40 I'm not going to complain.

[Jginmartini]

13 minutes ago, gusky said:

A dumbed down physics model is what I need anyway until I spend some time in the game anyway. Definitely can imagine a lot of cool updates for the game

I always wondered how close the sim was to the real thing until I was given a gift to go up in a Cessna and fly.   They wouldn’t let me taxi or actually set the plane down but allowed me everything else including lining up approach and getting close to the landing.  It was awesome and the actual plane was easier to fly then the sim.   It was a great day!!

 

Currently yuk out and rain.  .07 for the day and .32 for the month. 

[Jginmartini]

6 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

The design has been around forever, and I just got my second one.  I can't remember when I got the first one, but I think it has been at least 7-8 years ago.  I probably paid $80-90 for the first one.  They have definitely recouped their up front costs, and there are so many other options out there now, so the price makes sense.  The new one I just got does have a touch of slop in the Yaw axis, but for $30-40 I'm not going to complain.

I still have my Microsoft Force Feedback!   My helicopter/F-18 go too 

[The Blob]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

D7-12 average, 850mb temp anomaly, 12z GEFS.

Impressive.

I should probably wait on putting  the lemon tree back outside.

[gusky]

18 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

I always wondered how close the sim was to the real thing until I was given a gift to go up in a Cessna and fly.   They wouldn’t let me taxi or actually set the plane down but allowed me everything else including lining up approach and getting close to the landing.  It was awesome and the actual plane was easier to fly then the sim.   It was a great day!!

 

Currently yuk out and rain.  .07 for the day and .32 for the month. 

My friend got his pilots license a few months ago, I'll have to have him play it and compare it to his experience. Funny that the sim is harder!

[Jginmartini]

20 minutes ago, gusky said:

My friend got his pilots license a few months ago, I'll have to have him play it and compare it to his experience. Funny that the sim is harder!

The actual plane you get to feel the physics of the aircraft and weather impacting it….sim can’t do this although weather engines are getting better.  Just my opinion when I measured the real thing agains the sim.  Can’t wIt to try this in Oculus world but I’ll probably get motion sickness and throw up  

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS

[gusky]

22 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

The actual plane you get to feel the physics of the aircraft and weather impacting it….sim can’t do this although weather engines are getting better.  Just my opinion when I measured the real thing agains the sim.  Can’t wIt to try this in Oculus world but I’ll probably get motion sickness and throw up  

That sounds really cool, didn't know it had VR support. I thought about getting a quest a while ago but I don't wanna support Facebook

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS

Models continue to trend away from another cold blast towards a wetter pattern.    The 12Z EPS is wet during week 2 with zonal flow.

 

[TT-SEA]

Control run is very wet during week 2...

 

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Control run is very wet during week 2...

 

Lol the rain stops at Eugene again. 44th parallel = new Cascade Crest?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Lol southern OR and CA dry. 44th parallel = new Cascade Crest?

Right now its looking like fairly warm zonal flow with a northern jet stream plowing into the PNW and ridging over CA.    Likely would lead to another AR event... maybe multiple events.