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[Missing] March 2022 PNW Wx Discussion


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8 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Wow the GFS for a few days showed the storm door opening for us. Now it has the same pattern we have seen since Jan 1st. This historic dry pattern is just getting crazy now. Our snowpack survey at Philips station just came in at 68% of normal even though we were at 160% of normal Jan 1st. March is our snowiest month and it is looking bleak

Given the GFS track record, I wouldn't call it bleak yet.  The EPS looks better.

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z GFS shows a worst case scenario pattern for March almost no precip after today stubborn offshore ridge doesn’t want to budge 

Best case scenario for Tim, though. All about perspective.

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5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z GFS shows a worst case scenario pattern for March almost no precip after today stubborn offshore ridge doesn’t want to budge 

Yep. Like I said, we pay for every rain event with weeks of ridging. But, Tim reassured me that we are entering a sustained wet period, so we should be fine. 

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3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Yep. Like I said, we pay for every rain event with weeks of ridging. But, Tim reassured me that we are entering a sustained wet period, so we should be fine. 

Still could happen... EPS shows zonal flow developing.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Cliff Mass posted a wrap-up on the massive AR event that just occurred...

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/03/some-remarkable-precipitation-totals.html

Our atmospheric river event is over, but the effects--from flooding and avalanches to landslides--are not.

The heaviest precipitation (almost entirely rain) fell from the Olympics and central Cascades south into NW Oregon.    But a very beneficial aspect of this storm was the moderate rainfall over far eastern Washington and Idaho.   Dryland wheat farmers are probably very happy now.  Water resources around the state are in good shape now.

Daily precipitation records were broken throughout the region, on both sides of the Cascades.  Just too many to list.

And with all that precipitation, many local rivers are at very high levels.  Quite a few rivers in western Washington, in the Cascades, and even on the eastern slopes of the Cascades are experiencing daily records (records for March 1)--as shown by the black dots below. 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Cliff Mass posted a wrap-up on the massive AR event that just occurred...

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/03/some-remarkable-precipitation-totals.html

 

The heaviest precipitation (almost entirely rain) fell from the Olympics and central Cascades south into NW Oregon.    But a very beneficial aspect of this storm was the moderate rainfall over far eastern Washington and Idaho.   Dryland wheat farmers are probably very happy now.  Water resources around the state are in good shape now.

 

Daily precipitation records were broken throughout the region, on both sides of the Cascades.  Just too many to list.

And with all that precipitation, many local rivers are at very high levels.  Quite a few rivers in western Washington, in the Cascades, and even on the eastern slopes of the Cascades are experiencing daily records (records for March 1)--as shown by the black dots below. 

Unfortunately eastern Oregon got next to nothing.  John Day recorded .02".

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Cliff Mass posted a wrap-up on the massive AR event that just occurred...

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/03/some-remarkable-precipitation-totals.html

Our atmospheric river event is over, but the effects--from flooding and avalanches to landslides--are not.

The heaviest precipitation (almost entirely rain) fell from the Olympics and central Cascades south into NW Oregon.    But a very beneficial aspect of this storm was the moderate rainfall over far eastern Washington and Idaho.   Dryland wheat farmers are probably very happy now.  Water resources around the state are in good shape now.

Daily precipitation records were broken throughout the region, on both sides of the Cascades.  Just too many to list.

And with all that precipitation, many local rivers are at very high levels.  Quite a few rivers in western Washington, in the Cascades, and even on the eastern slopes of the Cascades are experiencing daily records (records for March 1)--as shown by the black dots below. 

still moderate to severe drought in eastern WA.  long term this does help but we need ALOT more

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59 minutes ago, Phil said:

But alas, it does not meet criteria for a SSW, and the vortex will likely recover before the final warming (though this might set the stage for it).

So the MJO will have less help from the associated reduction in static stability, which reduces the odds of significant WWBs over the IPWP/WPAC, and therefore the odds of a transition into El Niño appear to be decreasing. Or at the very least, it is now unlikely to be a quick transition.

Sleepwalk into a nino 2014 style?

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

still moderate to severe drought in eastern WA.  long term this does help but we need ALOT more

Good news is that Spokane is only -.81 for the water year since October and Pullman is actually +2.26.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good news is that Spokane is only -.81 for the water year since October and Pullman is actually +2.26.

will probably take another AR or 2 to overcome that deficit.  Spokane isn't known for massive rain events due to shadowing.

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  • Longtimer

South valley appears to be getting some needed rainfall this morning hopefully this band sits in the same spot most of the day 

48 with light rain here and .20” so far today 57/49 yesterday with .42” rain 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

South valley appears to be getting some needed rainfall this morning hopefully this band sits in the same spot most of the day 

48 with light rain here and .20” so far today 57/49 yesterday with .42” rain 

It's been drippy but nothing drought-shattering. 1.11" storm total here. Enough to bring soil moistures back up a bit at least.

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1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

What are you running it on and how are you controlling it?

I got pretty proficient in FSX on a laptop using just a mouse and keyboard, so when I tried the new FS I was disappointed that everything I remembered didn't work.

It released on Xbox Cloud Gaming the other day, which was great bc I have no other way to play it. It runs surprisingly well if you have a decent internet connection, highly reccomend

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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  • Longtimer

Dumping buckets now after a nice warm and dry morning. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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26 minutes ago, Phil said:

D7-12 average, 850mb temp anomaly, 12z GEFS.

Impressive.

3CB84CE1-C575-44D6-885D-67BB681C5EC8.thumb.png.60eb633b84b6b3588befc5ba0ceed9c6.png

You need to shift that dark rosey color west over Washington and Oregon. 
Thanks. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

well need to move the rockies, anyone have any excavation equipment?

We’ve gotten cold many times in the past with the Rockies there just takes a deep enough airmass and the right 500mb pattern both of which are harder to come by these days esp by the second week of March 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 hours ago, gusky said:

Wow, do the physics of the helicopter actually work? Seems like it would have issues with plane physics. I'll have to get that one.

It's not too bad.  It's the only one that does not require an external program to run the physics.  It seems to be somewhat close to what I have flown in DCS and Xplane 11, though still pretty "dumbed down."  I can actually hover in MSFS, and I never could consistently get a somewhat stable hover in DCS with the Gazelle, Huey or Mi-8.

 

It will be interesting to see what the difference ends up being once MS officially incorporates rotorcraft physics support.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Jginmartini said:

I love Troutdale area when the east winds are blowing…..fun landings.  I can also take the Cessna off like a cub piper with no runway if winds are blowing hard enough 😂

KBLI and the Frasier outflows is a hoot!

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1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

What are you running it on and how are you controlling it?

I got pretty proficient in FSX on a laptop using just a mouse and keyboard, so when I tried the new FS I was disappointed that everything I remembered didn't work.

If you are on a tight budget, you can't beat this controller.  It has a simple throttle, and twist for yaw, and it's on sale now for $30.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00009OY9U/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

 

Honestly most of my hours are logged on this, because my flight sim station is also my work desk.

 

 

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34 minutes ago, MossMan said:

You need to shift that dark rosey color west over Washington and Oregon. 
Thanks. 

You know what would be awesome. The Rockies and Cascades running horizontal across North America at 45 degrees latitude with no mountain ranges north of us 😂

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8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Euro still looking the best out of any model for a pinching off high and undercutting scenario days 7-10

Classic transition to a wet pattern on the 12Z ECMWF.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

😃

It has been a wet rainy season... regardless of what that map shows.    But of course that map is only from December and I am talking about the entire rainy season which begins October 1st.  The actual data from actual stations tells the tale.

SEA +7.01

OLM +8.76

BLI +5.68

HWM +7.67

UIL +19.69  (yes... 19 inches above normal since October 1st)

AST +6.79

PDX +2.08

 

That is not just random... its been wetter than normal from PDX to BLI.

 

 

How about the rest of the region, like Salem, Corvallis, Eugene, Roseburg, Medford etc? The PNW is more than just PDX north...

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 14 (Most recent: Dec 3, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Eujunga said:

It's been drippy but nothing drought-shattering. 1.11" storm total here. Enough to bring soil moistures back up a bit at least.

Airport doing better than here. We are at 0.8" on the east side of town. Hopefully we can get an inch out of this until the next active setup.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 14 (Most recent: Dec 3, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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13 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

How about the rest of the region, like Salem, Corvallis, Eugene, Roseburg, Medford etc? The PNW is more than just PDX north...

Discussing the rainfall departures for NW OR and western WA there.     Did not say anything about the entire PNW or the rest of the west coast.    Obviously very different elsewhere as been discussed.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z EPS out through day 10 so far and already shows a big shift to wet zonal flow... I think its coming.     

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-7086400.png

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12Z control run is even more emphatic on a wet pattern developing... looks similar to the 12Z ECMWF.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-7086400.png

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42 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

It's not too bad.  It's the only one that does not require an external program to run the physics.  It seems to be somewhat close to what I have flown in DCS and Xplane 11, though still pretty "dumbed down."  I can actually hover in MSFS, and I never could consistently get a somewhat stable hover in DCS with the Gazelle, Huey or Mi-8.

 

It will be interesting to see what the difference ends up being once MS officially incorporates rotorcraft physics support.

 

 

A dumbed down physics model is what I need anyway until I spend some time in the game anyway. Definitely can imagine a lot of cool updates for the game

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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39 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

If you are on a tight budget, you can't beat this controller.  It has a simple throttle, and twist for yaw, and it's on sale now for $30.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00009OY9U/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

 

Honestly most of my hours are logged on this, because my flight sim station is also my work desk.

 

 

Awesome, I was just looking at that but it seemed too cheap to be good lol.

Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 90.7 (some data missing)

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 13

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 6

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.9''

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7 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Awesome, I was just looking at that but it seemed too cheap to be good lol.

The design has been around forever, and I just got my second one.  I can't remember when I got the first one, but I think it has been at least 7-8 years ago.  I probably paid $80-90 for the first one.  They have definitely recouped their up front costs, and there are so many other options out there now, so the price makes sense.  The new one I just got does have a touch of slop in the Yaw axis, but for $30-40 I'm not going to complain.

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13 minutes ago, gusky said:

A dumbed down physics model is what I need anyway until I spend some time in the game anyway. Definitely can imagine a lot of cool updates for the game

I always wondered how close the sim was to the real thing until I was given a gift to go up in a Cessna and fly.   They wouldn’t let me taxi or actually set the plane down but allowed me everything else including lining up approach and getting close to the landing.  It was awesome and the actual plane was easier to fly then the sim.   It was a great day!!

 

Currently yuk out and rain.  .07 for the day and .32 for the month. 

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6 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

The design has been around forever, and I just got my second one.  I can't remember when I got the first one, but I think it has been at least 7-8 years ago.  I probably paid $80-90 for the first one.  They have definitely recouped their up front costs, and there are so many other options out there now, so the price makes sense.  The new one I just got does have a touch of slop in the Yaw axis, but for $30-40 I'm not going to complain.

I still have my Microsoft Force Feedback!   My helicopter/F-18 go too 

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18 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

I always wondered how close the sim was to the real thing until I was given a gift to go up in a Cessna and fly.   They wouldn’t let me taxi or actually set the plane down but allowed me everything else including lining up approach and getting close to the landing.  It was awesome and the actual plane was easier to fly then the sim.   It was a great day!!

 

Currently yuk out and rain.  .07 for the day and .32 for the month. 

My friend got his pilots license a few months ago, I'll have to have him play it and compare it to his experience. Funny that the sim is harder!

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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20 minutes ago, gusky said:

My friend got his pilots license a few months ago, I'll have to have him play it and compare it to his experience. Funny that the sim is harder!

The actual plane you get to feel the physics of the aircraft and weather impacting it….sim can’t do this although weather engines are getting better.  Just my opinion when I measured the real thing agains the sim.  Can’t wIt to try this in Oculus world but I’ll probably get motion sickness and throw up 🤮 

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22 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

The actual plane you get to feel the physics of the aircraft and weather impacting it….sim can’t do this although weather engines are getting better.  Just my opinion when I measured the real thing agains the sim.  Can’t wIt to try this in Oculus world but I’ll probably get motion sickness and throw up 🤮 

That sounds really cool, didn't know it had VR support. I thought about getting a quest a while ago but I don't wanna support Facebook

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS

3C384B29-2DB4-4DA7-BD72-52F16F650B5F.png.73022f645b713a141b91f1cdad3ab9ed.png

Models continue to trend away from another cold blast towards a wetter pattern.    The 12Z EPS is wet during week 2 with zonal flow.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_7day-7518400.png

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Lol southern OR and CA dry. 44th parallel = new Cascade Crest?

Right now its looking like fairly warm zonal flow with a northern jet stream plowing into the PNW and ridging over CA.    Likely would lead to another AR event... maybe multiple events.

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37 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS

3C384B29-2DB4-4DA7-BD72-52F16F650B5F.png.73022f645b713a141b91f1cdad3ab9ed.png

That seems like some extremely divergent solutions for the Euro to be within 10 days. Or maybe its more like - they all show similar zonal patterns with intermittently variable peaks/troughs but timing is different for each so it just looks like divergent solutions when its really all zonal with different timing. 

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Out in packwood working today and there was lots of water along Highway 12 on the way in. Was snow on the ground here still when I was out here in mid February…but none now. Doesn’t even look like there’s a lot on the peaks surrounding town. Would be nice to be cool and wet not warm and wet coming up. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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