[Missing] March 2022 PNW Wx Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In the mid-late 90s when the PNW was experiencing a pretty wet period, the general consensus was our climate would get wetter as it warmed. So I think a lot of these predictions are often tinged with what's been going on recently.  

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In the mid-late 90s when the PNW was experiencing a pretty wet period, the general consensus was our climate would get wetter as it warmed. So I think a lot of these predictions are often tinged with what's been going on recently.  

Of course.

[Timmy Supercell]

2 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

The week of memorial day last year was brutal. The ongoing joke up here is to expect snow the week of memorial day. 

You really do have a snowier climate than many of us. It only snowed once around Memorial (in 2012) when I lived in K-Falls for nearly half a generation. That kind of snow too (in depth) is like late February going into March type snow.

At my new place, that there is the deepest all winter I've seen.

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In the mid-late 90s when the PNW was experiencing a pretty wet period, the general consensus was our climate would get wetter as it warmed. So I think a lot of these predictions are often tinged with what's been going on recently.  

Its definitely becoming wetter overall up here.   The 1991-2020 update increased average rainfall in Seattle.    And the last decade has been one of the wettest in history in Seattle.     But the increase has mostly been in the rainy season.   I think the consensus is that there are more AR events now so it does not really help with mountain snow.    And the its also being offset by warmer summers.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows most of the CONUS under a massive trough one week from today.    Of course this is not a real wet pattern out here.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows wet weather in SoCal... but the northern part of the state is not so lucky.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

48 with filtered sunshine here…pretty nice day. Euro has definitely continued to trend drier here for the end of the month. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

48F and cloudy.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

48 with filtered sunshine here…pretty nice day. Euro has definitely continued to trend drier here for the end of the month. 

High clouds have really thinned out here in the last hour... enough to call it mostly sunny now.

[FroYoBro]

All sunshine here now. Really comfortable day!

[Phishy Wx]

32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows wet weather in SoCal... but the northern part of the state is not so lucky.

 

this will happen, going to be in LA the week of 4/3

[Phishy Wx]

51 and Sunny

[The Blob]

Beautiful day out, I'm hoping to get to the water front to see the cherry trees in bloom.

[Deweydog]

The old man approves of today’s weather, although he’s pretty sideways about the fact we’re out of Beggin’ Strips.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

The old man approves of today’s weather, although he’s pretty sideways about the fact we’re out of Beggin’ Strips.

Is that real grass?   

[Phishy Wx]

I hope he doesn't fall down

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Is that real grass?   

He went fake a little while back! 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Is that real grass?   

Certified artificial. It’s greened up very nicely in the last couple weeks.

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Certified artificial. It’s greened up very nicely in the last couple weeks.

How old is your dog?

We have a yellow lab that we got where Randy works on whim while driving back from Bellingham after the 4th of July weekend in 2007 when my boys were 6 years old.    My wife said "hey lets stop and let the boys play with some dogs" and taking that exit off I-5 turned into a 15-year commitment and still going!    They estimated he was 9 months old when we got him so that means he turns 16 this year and he really has not slowed down too much.   Energizer bunny.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

How old is your dog?

We have a yellow lab that we got where Randy works on whim while driving back from Bellingham after the 4th of July weekend in 2007 when boys were 6 years old.    My wife said "hey lets stop and let the boys play with some dogs" and taking that exit off I-5 turned into a 15-year commitment and still going!    They estimated he was 9 months old when we got him so that means he turns 16 this year and he really has not slowed down too much.   Energizer bunny.

D**n! That’s a great run!

He’s only eight but since he’s gone prematurely gray we pretty much just call him Old Man, but his name is Patrick. He still runs around like he’s two and a half.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

How old is your dog?

We have a yellow lab that we got where Randy works on whim while driving back from Bellingham after the 4th of July weekend in 2007 when boys were 6 years old.    My wife said "hey lets stop and let the boys play with some dogs" and taking that exit off I-5 turned into a 15-year commitment and still going!    They estimated he was 9 months old when we got him so that means he turns 16 this year and he really has not slowed down too much.   Energizer bunny.

Wow that's wild. They say dogs are living longer. The life expectancy of dogs has doubled in the past hundred years I believe. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow that's wild. They say dogs are living longer. The life expectancy of dogs has doubled in the past hundred years I believe. 

Interesting.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting.  

It's actually doubled in the last four decades according to what I just read. And from 2002 to 2018 the life expectancy of dogs increased from 10.5 to 11.8 years. 

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Interesting. I think it depends on the specifics of the forcing(s)/boundary conditions involved.

Based on proxy data, I’d argue the region with the most dramatic climate variability is actually the North Atlantic domain (including Europe and Eastern North America). It appears to be unmatched anywhere else on the planet.

It’s just that the triggers are likely different. And as you alluded to, degree of variability ≠ sensitivity to change at any given point in time, necessarily. Perhaps each region is “sensitive” to a unique set of conditions which may or may not present itself.

 

Europe’s climate would change the most with a complete saline bouyancy breakdown in the North Atlantic, which would occur under massive RPPC 8.5 type warming.

That would shove the baroclinic zone hard south and ironically turn Portugal and Morocco into a much more damp clime. Poles would drop by a good 5°C as well.

…Of course all this would be at the cost of turning the tropics into an actual microwave oven; and only god knows what would happen to storm behavior out here; but Europe does have the greatest potential for mass climate breakdown, at least locally.

[TT-SEA]

Just looked it up and I was a little off... 4th of July was on a Wednesday in 2007 so we got our dog on Thursday 7/5/07 at NOAH where Randy works now... but he was maintaining golf courses back then. 

[BLI snowman]

48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

How old is your dog?

We have a yellow lab that we got where Randy works on whim while driving back from Bellingham after the 4th of July weekend in 2007 when my boys were 6 years old.    My wife said "hey lets stop and let the boys play with some dogs" and taking that exit off I-5 turned into a 15-year commitment and still going!    They estimated he was 9 months old when we got him so that means he turns 16 this year and he really has not slowed down too much.   Energizer bunny.

Nice, I have a big fat Persian cat who is set to turn 16 this year. He was born right after our little heat wave in July 2006. Much more common for cats to live at least that long, though.

[T-Town]

47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

How old is your dog?

We have a yellow lab that we got where Randy works on whim while driving back from Bellingham after the 4th of July weekend in 2007 when my boys were 6 years old.    My wife said "hey lets stop and let the boys play with some dogs" and taking that exit off I-5 turned into a 15-year commitment and still going!    They estimated he was 9 months old when we got him so that means he turns 16 this year and he really has not slowed down too much.   Energizer bunny.

We got a lab-shepherd mix from a shelter in Arlington. Good old Annabelle. Got her in 2003 I think and she made it to 15. 

[BLI snowman]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Interesting. I think it depends on the specifics of the forcing(s)/boundary conditions involved.

Based on proxy data, I’d argue the region with the most dramatic climate variability is actually the North Atlantic domain (including Europe and Eastern North America). It appears to be unmatched anywhere else on the planet.

It’s just that the triggers are likely different. And as you alluded to, degree of variability ≠ sensitivity to change at any given point in time, necessarily. Perhaps each region is “sensitive” to a unique set of conditions which may or may not present itself.

 

The Mid Atlantic into the Northeast seems to be becoming increasingly influenced by the Gulf Stream of course, and increasingly subtropical as a result. That means warmer and wetter.

Central Park's data is telling because it's such a long and unbroken POR

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ny5801

Their annual precip has shifted considerably upward in the last few decades.  Far more really warm days in DJF now, as well.

[SnowWillarrive]

26 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Europe’s climate would change the most with a complete saline bouyancy breakdown in the North Atlantic, which would occur under massive RPPC 8.5 type warming.

That would shove the baroclinic zone hard south and ironically turn Portugal and Morocco into a much more damp clime. Poles would drop by a good 5°C as well.

…Of course all this would be at the cost of turning the tropics into an actual microwave oven; and only god knows what would happen to storm behavior out here; but Europe does have the greatest potential for mass climate breakdown, at least locally.

I always wondered how that would impact our weather. 

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

How old is your dog?

We have a yellow lab that we got where Randy works on whim while driving back from Bellingham after the 4th of July weekend in 2007 when my boys were 6 years old.    My wife said "hey lets stop and let the boys play with some dogs" and taking that exit off I-5 turned into a 15-year commitment and still going!    They estimated he was 9 months old when we got him so that means he turns 16 this year and he really has not slowed down too much.   Energizer bunny.

Wow I have never had a lab live past 12. Donner turns 8 next Thursday. I hope he is the first to make it past 12. 

[RentonHill]

15 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Wow I have never had a lab live past 12. Donner turns 8 next Thursday. I hope he is the first to make it past 12. 

Donner dont look starvin imo

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I had a lab when I was a kid. Got her right before the December 1990 arctic blast hit. She lived until 2004. Had a wiener dog too and she lived to be 15. 
 

The dog that is my avatar is 10 1/2 and doing well. That pic was taken in a canoe on Olallie Lake when she was 1. She looks and acts the same. 
 

I actually must credit my ex wife with fostering my love of dogs, she actually found Molly and brought her into the home. In a cruel twist of fate her 2nd husband has bad allergies and doesn’t allow pets in the home. 

[MossMan]

50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just looked it up and I was a little off... 4th of July was on a Wednesday in 2007 so we got our dog on Thursday 7/5/07 at NOAH where Randy works now... but he was maintaining golf courses back then. 

I was going to say, we are closed on the 4th! During that time period I was a volunteer dog walker and helped with the training program that we used to have here so I was a part of NOAH, just in an unpaid capacity! I was one year into my job at the Senior Community so my golf course days were freshly behind me. Seems like yesterday but at the same time so long ago. I might have met your dog back then before you adopted!

[AlTahoe]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Donner dont look starvin imo

Lol. The English labs are chonky. His mom and dad were about 110lbs. He is 95lbs. He gets 2 measuring cups of food a day. 

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Lol. The English labs are chonky. His mom and dad were about 110lbs. He is 95lbs. He gets 2 measuring cups of food a day. 

Friends of ours are fostering an eight week old English lab who’s gonna become a service dog. Fattest black potato I’ve ever seen.

[TT-SEA]

I hear a chorus of frogs outside right now in the middle of a bright, sunny afternoon.  It sounds like it's 10 p.m. out there.    Can't ever remember that happening... or maybe never noticed it before.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I hear a chorus of frogs outside right now in the middle of a bright, sunny afternoon.  It sounds like it's 10 p.m. out there.    Can't ever remember that happening... or maybe never noticed it before.  

It’s 55F and beautiful down here. No frogs to be heard. Just enough rain for the month but not a plethora. Honestly, this time of year we are one of the most pleasant places to be on the entire planet.

Maybe one day you can have a spring/early summer timeshare here Tim. It’s really beautiful this time of year and doesn’t rain much.

[Omegaraptor]

Roseburg 15 degrees warmer than Cottage Grove. Only 50 miles apart and at the same elevation. That doesn’t happen often.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mossman, if you ever come across a Setter needing a home please let me KNOW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice day in Salem. Went to get some fresh air at the local park and saw quite a few garter snakes sunning themselves by the path. Always nice to see nature among the homeless camps.