3 hours ago, Eujunga said:

I know I come off as some sort of rain maniac, but all I really want is climo. Old school, pre-1980 climo. That means around 44" of rain a year, and summer average temperatures in the 81/52 range. The last decade has averaged around 10" less rain and 4ºF warmer.

0.89" today and 1.50" for the storm, and I'm feeling less stressed. Don't know why I take heat and drought so personally, but it's been that way ever since I was old enough to be aware of the weather.

Fern Ridge Dam just west of Eugene averages 41.18 inches per year.

2019 - 42.16

2020 - 42.01

2021 - 40.69

That is very close to normal over the last 3 years.   I think there might be something wrong with the KEUG averages and I remember that being discussed on here a couple times in years past.

Since it's spring now, I'll go ahead and grade out the winter. C+. That sounds harsh since Eugene received over 10 inches of snow which is about twice the annual average. The main reasoning is that the mountains got completely hosed. It was such a great start to the winter, but it ended right around Jan 1st. I love venturing out in the mountains (snowmobiling), but the conditions have been total sh!t since then. I'm tired of just storing my sled in the garage. 

Major dumpage currently! 
.31” on the day. 
44 degrees. 

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Fern Ridge Dam just west of Eugene averages 42 inches per year.

2019 - 42.16

2020 - 42.01

2021 - 40.69

That is very close to normal over the last 3 years.   I think there might be something wrong with the KEUG averages and I remember that being discussed on here a couple times in years past.

I would guess the Fern Ridge average is more in like with what KEUG actually averages. That higher number quoted often is likely representative of downtown. 

 

6 minutes ago, Dave said:

Since it's spring now, I'll go ahead and grade out the winter. C+. That sounds harsh since Eugene received over 10 inches of snow which is about twice the annual average. The main reasoning is that the mountains got completely hosed. It was such a great start to the winter, but it ended right around Jan 1st. I love venturing out in the mountains (snowmobiling), but the conditions have been total sh!t since then. I'm tired of just storing my sled in the garage. 

I'd give it a B-. Great event in late December and last week was nice. Last week probably bumped us up from a C. Kind of a boring winter overall. Hopefully we can have a cool damp spring and hold on to the snowpack as long as possible. I think next winter may be decent. Neutral perhaps? 

Pivotal still having issues.

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would guess the Fern Ridge average is more in like with what KEUG actually averages. That higher number quoted often is likely representative of downtown. 

 

Fern Ridge Dam also recorded 53.51 inches in 2016 and 59.19 inches in 2017... and then only 38.30 inches in 2018.  

2016 and 2017 were actually quite wet down there.    I don't see a decade of dry years at that station.    Most of the years have been at or above normal in the last decade.  

From 2014 through 2021... the Fern Ridge station averaged 46.11 inches compared to a long term average of 41.18 inches.

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Fern Ridge Dam also recorded 53.51 inches in 2016 and 59.19 inches in 2017... and then only 38.30 inches in 2018.  

2016 and 2017 were actually quite wet down there.    I don't see a decade of dry years at that station.    Most of the years have been at or above normal in the last decade.  

2016-17 was a very wet water year. I prefer to look at the water year. You can see the stats for my location in my signature. Our average is 75". So you can see we have had some very dry years. 2020-21 came in near normal, right now we are running near normal for this water year, once I update my signature, we'll be at about 55". It has been notably dry down here, but probably the bigger story is how dry it has been late April-June. Kind of sets the stage for these bad fire seasons. Last DJF were actually well above average here for precip, but then we followed it with a record dry spring.

All that being said we have had 4 drier than average water years in a row. And 7 of the last 8 have been drier than normal. 

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2016-17 was a very wet water year. I prefer to look at the water year. You can see the stats for my location in my signature. Our average is 75". So you can see we have had some very dry years. 2020-21 came in near normal, right now we are running near normal for this water year, once I update my signature, we'll be at about 55". It has been notably dry down here, but probably the bigger story is how dry it has been late April-June. Kind of sets the stage for these bad fire seasons. Last DJF were actually well above average here for precip, but then we followed it with a record dry spring.

The March - May period was drier than normal at the Fern Ridge station in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2021 (only slightly below normal in 2018 and 2020).

Spring was very wet in 2014, 2016, 2017, and 2019.  

I don't see a real trend toward dry springs at that station either... but last year was very dry.

Salem had above average precip 2014-17, and was actually slightly above average in 2021. 

One of the reasons some of those years ended up below average up here is because the bulk of the precip came in the winter, we get a lot of precip in the spring here compared to the valley. So a parched May like we had in 2018 is only going to come in 1" or so below normal in the valley, but we usually get 5-6" of rain in May, so it's going to have a big impact on our seasonal total. 

 

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The March - May period was drier than normal at the Fern Ridge station in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2021 (only slightly below normal in 2018 and 2020).

But spring was very wet in 2014, 2016, 2017, and 2019.  

I don't see a real trend toward dry springs at that station either... but last year was very dry.

IDK what to tell  you. I think we could just look at the drought map to see there is some kind of an issue. The biggest issue with the fires and all is probably how hot summers have been. No denying 2013-present has been a monumental torch during the summer months. 2016-17 had great snow pack and tons of precip, but we had a horrifically hot summer and awful fire season. So at the end of the day, that's probably the real issue. 

Last time I checked, the 30 year running average of annual precip was within an inch or two for Eugene vs Seattle. Seems about right. There's no question that there is an unfortunate trend of a drier era down here. 

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

IDK what to tell  you. I think we could just look at the drought map to see there is some kind of an issue. The biggest issue with the fires and all is probably how hot summers have been. No denying 2013-present has been a monumental torch during the summer months. 2016-17 had great snow pack and tons of precip, but we had a horrifically hot summer and awful fire season. So at the end of the day, that's probably the real issue. 

Yeah... the hot and dry summers are probably the real issue.     I don't see any decline in annual rainfall at the Fern Ridge station.    Actually the opposite.    That station is 39 inches above normal cumulative since 2014.     

Of course 2013 was very dry (like everywhere)... but 2010-12 was also very wet.  

Over the last decade (2012-2021) the Fern Ridge station is 48.89 inches above normal cumulatively.

46F with some light rain. Over an inch on the day.

00Z EPS is still wet in week 2 with zonal flow.    Control run looks the same... but a little less so than the 12Z run.

1 hour ago, Dave said:

Last time I checked, the 30 year running average of annual precip was within an inch or two for Eugene vs Seattle. Seems about right. There's no question that there is an unfortunate trend of a drier era down here. 

Ever since the wettest year on record, 1996, things have trended drier.

Meanwhile, annual precipitation has been steadily increasing in Seattle since the beginning of the 80s.

AGW is forcing the midlatitude baroclinic zone northward. Eugene is experiencing more influence from the subtropical Hadley cell downwelling (the same mechanism that keeps CA so dry), while Seattle is seeing more and more warm precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers. Warm air holds more water, hence the uptick in total precipitation. Seattle, now with that baroclinic zone displaced north, is stealing more and more frontal precip from Eugene.

In a strange sort of way Seattle is slowly stealing the Willamette Valley's weather.

I think this says it all... (Positive values mean Eugene is wetter than Seattle by that amount, negative values drier)

4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I think this says it all... (Positive values mean Eugene is wetter than Seattle by that amount, negative values drier)

Interesting.    Your analysis does seem to make sense...  but the Fern Ridge station does not show the same trend.    Maybe that station has issues.    What does it look like if you use Salem or Roseburg?

8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... the hot and dry summers are probably the real issue.     I don't see any decline in annual rainfall at the Fern Ridge station.    Actually the opposite.    That station is 39 inches above normal cumulative since 2014.     

Of course 2013 was very dry (like everywhere)... but 2010-12 was also very wet.  

Over the last decade (2012-2021) the Fern Ridge station is 48.89 inches above normal cumulatively.

Could it be that the decades of overgrowth allowed to accumulate in the Forest are causing much bigger fires? 

I know in the Sierra it is one of the biggest factors. In the 1920's the forest averaged like 40 pines per Acre. Now we have 250+ per acre 

Chilly morning, temp down to 36 as cooler air aloft moves in. Tomorrow May struggle to hit the lower 40s.

Currently mostly cloudy, Smokey, and 39.

.34” so far on the day, .85” for the month, 11.37” for the year. 

41 for the low…no rain since midnight. 

8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... the hot and dry summers are probably the real issue.     I don't see any decline in annual rainfall at the Fern Ridge station.    Actually the opposite.    That station is 39 inches above normal cumulative since 2014.     

Of course 2013 was very dry (like everywhere)... but 2010-12 was also very wet.  

Over the last decade (2012-2021) the Fern Ridge station is 48.89 inches above normal cumulatively.

The Fern Ridge station consistently records rain values 10%-15% higher than what I measure with my weather station.

Whether that's due to differences in microclimate, issues with the Fern Ridge station, or issue with my PWS, I have no way of knowing, except that my visual observations of the rainfall here comport with what my station records.

7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Ever since the wettest year on record, 1996, things have trended drier.

There was a large shift in the general circulation(s) following the 1997/98 super niño, which has held to this day.

The transition was complete by 2000.  

16 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

The Fern Ridge station consistently records rain values 10%-15% higher than what I measure with my weather station.

Whether that's due to differences in microclimate, issues with the Fern Ridge station, or issue with my PWS, I have no way of knowing, except that my visual observations of the rainfall here comport with what my station records.

Whoa, in looking over the data, I realize that sometimes the difference is a lot more than 10%-15%. For example, in December 2020 I recorded 4.85", and Fern Ridge recorded 8.04". In December 2021, I recorded 9.03"; Fern Ridge 14.02". I can't account for those huge differences. I don't think my PWS could possibly be that far off, and it certainly didn't seem to rain that much here.

Maybe I have my own donut hole microclimate, although I don't know what would cause that, either.

7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Meanwhile, annual precipitation has been steadily increasing in Seattle since the beginning of the 80s.

AGW is forcing the midlatitude baroclinic zone northward. Eugene is experiencing more influence from the subtropical Hadley cell downwelling (the same mechanism that keeps CA so dry), while Seattle is seeing more and more warm precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers. Warm air holds more water, hence the uptick in total precipitation. Seattle, now with that baroclinic zone displaced north, is stealing more and more frontal precip from Eugene.

In a strange sort of way Seattle is slowly stealing the Willamette Valley's weather.

The expanding (and slowing) of the Hadley Cell can also be attributed to the broadening and overall NE-ward displacement of the IPWP which isn’t necessarily AGW related (given it also appears to have a occurred during the 1000-1250AD timeframe, to an even more significant extent than today, which coincided with the multi-century megadrought(s) across western and central North America). These changes are also an AL/high latitude WAA machine that serves as a conduit to more frequent +TNH and/or +NAM.

It’s theoretically possible for the system to warm and for the Hadley Cells to contract (we see this with El Niño) however proxies suggest this does not happen on longer timescales (multidecadal or beyond). Every Holocene warm period seems to coincide with an expansion of the Hadley Cells, a broadening of the 4CH/drought conditions in western North America, and likely enhanced convection in the west-pacific extending into the off-equatorial domains, knowing how that teleconnects today.

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Could it be that the decades of overgrowth allowed to accumulate in the Forest are causing much bigger fires? 

I know in the Sierra it is one of the biggest factors. In the 1920's the forest averaged like 40 pines per Acre. Now we have 250+ per acre 

Mother Nature is cleaning up our mess!

June is the most critical month for the fire season as far as weather goes for BC. A hot dry June is pretty much guaranteed to trigger an active fire season. Especially considering June is typically one of the wettest months of the year in parts of the interior

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Could it be that the decades of overgrowth allowed to accumulate in the Forest are causing much bigger fires? 

I know in the Sierra it is one of the biggest factors. In the 1920's the forest averaged like 40 pines per Acre. Now we have 250+ per acre 

Dont see how that would cause hotter summers 

Ended up with .67” rain yesterday pretty big overachiever nice to see areas to the south did even better. 

About 3.5” of rain since the wet period started on Saturday here 

 

Also debatable as to how the acceleration of the BDC/mass circulation in the stratosphere has affected tropical convection/WPWP since the 1980s/90s. Uncertain, but there’s been some interesting research done on this topic in recent years, suggesting it could be a significant contributor to the observed changes in the tropics.

In which case, was it also a contributor to the other periods in the Holocene where similar large scale changes to z-cells have been documented? If so, what triggered it? Appears to be driven at least in part by changes in O^3/thermal winds and ENSO, which raises all kinds of questions about emergent states.

Beautiful sunny morning here 37 for a low 41 currently. Had a 53/45 spread yesterday 

20 minutes ago, Phil said:

Also debatable as to how the acceleration of the BDC/mass circulation in the stratosphere has affected tropical convection/WPWP since the 1980s/90s. Uncertain, but there’s been some interesting research done on this topic in recent years, suggesting it could be a significant contributor to the observed changes in the tropics.

In which case, was it also a contributor during the previous episode of Hadley Cell broadening during the MCA? If so, what triggered it? Appears to be driven at least in part by changes in O^3/thermal winds and ENSO, which raises even more equations.

Perhaps worth noting is that just because certain atmospheric circulation pattern changes have occurred in the past without the benefit of AGW doesn't mean that there isn't an AGW component this time around. The Occam's Razor solution would seem to suggest that there very likely is (it stands to reason that injecting trillions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere is probably going to affect it somehow).

In any case, it's all very complex and driven by factors we don't fully understand yet. Which is why I bristle when even some of the most reputable climate change scientists seem to buy into the notion that we can limit global warming by a precise number of degrees if we reduce carbon emissions by a certain amount.

Sorry for going a little O/T and treading into controversial waters, but I feel like it's pertinent to the changes I've observed in my backyard climatology (warmer and drier -- or maybe not drier, maybe I'm just imagining things).

GFS seems to be slowly caving to the ECMWF/EPS... moving away from a very amplified and potentially cold scenario to more zonal flow and a wetter pattern overall.  

43 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Perhaps worth noting is that just because certain atmospheric circulation pattern changes have occurred in the past without the benefit of AGW doesn't mean that there isn't an AGW component this time around. The Occam's Razor solution would seem to suggest that there very likely is (it stands to reason to injecting trillions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere is probably going to affect it somehow).

In any case, it's all very complex and driven by factors we don't fully understand yet. Which is why I bristle when even some of the most reputable climate change scientists seem to buy into the notion that we can limit global warming by a precise number of degrees if we reduce carbon emissions by a certain amount.

Sorry for going a little O/T and treading into controversial waters, but I feel like it's pertinent to the changes I've observed in my backyard climatology (warmer and drier -- or maybe not drier, maybe I'm just imagining things).

It’s only logical that the changes in radiative fluxes due to increasing CO^2 are involved somehow. I would not doubt that at all. The question is how? And to what extent?

The problem (at this point) is the magnitude of the observed changes cannot be explained by CO^2/AGW alone. We are missing something big, whether it be a feedback related to AGW, or something else entirely (I tend to favor the latter, but we can’t know).

Also, keep in mind, these changes to the general circulation(s) began in the 19th century, or possibly earlier than that. Well before CO^2 was a factor.

And interestingly, we saw a temporary *reversal* in these trends from the 1940s to the 1970s, when CO^2 would have been more of a factor.

So at the very least, the driving mechanisms are pre-existing and the observed changes are state dependent. Whether AGW has somehow amplified the signal or changed the equation is not a question we can answer right now.

But assuming there is a link to AGW, and that it is most likely loose/peripheral, then there’s a decent chance it won’t maintain a grip on these evolutions of general states. Which ties back to the idea that both climate sensitivity and the transient response are state dependent.

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS seems to be slowly caving to the ECMWF/EPS... moving away from a very amplified and potentially cold scenario to more zonal flow and a wetter pattern overall.  

Guess I can take the plow off my mower and put the mower deck back on. The growing season is coming! 

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Guess I can take the plow off my mower and put the mower deck back on. The growing season is coming! 

Rapid turn around here from last week... from a frozen landscape and snow that was not melting even with sunshine to a green and wet landscape and grass that is definitely starting to shows signs of growing.     The transition was much slower in 2019.   We couldn't buy a raindrop that March.

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Dont see how that would cause hotter summers 

They were talking about hotter summers leading to more forest fires. I think the temp of the summers doesn't really matter anymore. The forest are so overgrown we are getting explosive fires even when the conditions don't warrant it. 

GFS is sticking to it's guns that March will give us next to nothing. Driest Jan-March on record is looking like a lock unless the end of the month surprises.  

4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

GFS is sticking to it's guns that March will give us next to nothing. Driest Jan-March on record is looking like a lock unless the end of the month surprises.  

Pretty big shift up here over the last few runs.     The EPS has also been hinting at a ridge over CA pumping moisture into the PNW.

12Z GFS from yesterday on top and new 12Z GFS on the bottom.      Its quite different... but the result is the same in CA.

 

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty big shift up here over the last few runs.     The EPS has also been hinting at a ridge over CA pumping moisture into the PNW.

12Z GFS from yesterday on top and new 12Z GFS on the bottom.      Its quite different... but the result is the same in CA.

 

The direst Jan-March for Tahoe was in 1976 with 3.6" combined. We are at .8" right now with maybe .10" this weekend and then nothing being shown through mid March. Incredible. 

Also the last 2 winters featured less than 50% of normal precip for Jan - March

This year is looks to be in the less than 25% range. Pretty soon our summer months will have more precip from Monsoon activity than the heart of winter.