Jump to content
The Weather Forums

3/9 - 3/12 Spring Storm


Tom
 Share

Recommended Posts

The "Ides of March" shall continue and our Sub is definitely going to witness more of this months volatile wx pattern.  The system for later this week has been trending S likely due to the stout -EPO forcing the storm track south, ironically, in the middle of MAR, against the typical seasonal shifts that one would think should happen.  Both GEFS/EPS are pretty much in the same camp.  I know that the models have not done so well in the D5+ range, but now that we are getting into the medium range we are seeing some consistency.  This system will feature a potent late season Arctic frontal boundary, whereby, there appears to be 2 waves that will form along it to produce two areas of snowfall. 

According to the EPS, the 1st wave produces snow over NE/IA/WI and then the model is "seeing" a second wave that digs deep into TX/AR and rides up through the OHV.  Lot's of time for the models to figure out the timing and waves in this complex wx pattern.  There may be a a Severe wx component to this storm as well depending on how the 2nd wave develops.... @Timmy_Supercell

Let's discuss....I'd be stoked to see a "share the wealth" snow shield out of this system.....

0z Euro...

2.png

  • Like 4
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom pinned this topic
2 hours ago, Tom said:

0z Euro...

2.png

The pattern of winter forsaking me continues on as I'm basically in the middle of that band of low snow in SE Wisconsin. But the good news is that this is looking like it'll hit Tyrol Basin and Cascade Mountain, and even Devil's Head really hard, which is worth the drive even if I'm paying $4/gal for gas on my Jeep that gets 15mpg, lol. It's past the time of winter redeeming itself for me in SE Wisconsin, Alpine Valley is gonna limp along for a week or two maybe and any sort of snowmobiling is off the table, but the other resorts have some hope to make it to late March at this rate. Looks like Cascade held up pretty well after the rain. A little fresh snow in the next few days and it'll be kind of like winter again for one more week.

image.thumb.png.15ed8d72872188a0f9f965dcd301c29e.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, gimmesnow said:

The pattern of winter forsaking me continues on as I'm basically in the middle of that band of low snow in SE Wisconsin. But the good news is that this is looking like it'll hit Tyrol Basin and Cascade Mountain, and even Devil's Head really hard, which is worth the drive even if I'm paying $4/gal for gas on my Jeep that gets 15mpg, lol. It's past the time of winter redeeming itself for me in SE Wisconsin, Alpine Valley is gonna limp along for a week or two maybe and any sort of snowmobiling is off the table, but the other resorts have some hope to make it to late March at this rate. Looks like Cascade held up pretty well after the rain. A little fresh snow in the next few days and it'll be kind of like winter again for one more week.

image.thumb.png.15ed8d72872188a0f9f965dcd301c29e.png

I’d imagine that both Cascade and Devil’s Head should continue to be open, esp Cascade since it faces East and away from direct sun.  I have never skied there in March but does the suns higher angle effect the mountain this time of year?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS has really gone south with this system.  Cedar Rapids gets nothing now.  Much of the Iowa snow on this map is from the Sunday night system.

image.thumb.png.bb454bd4ff9d96226bfa9eda7fb1f48c.png

  • Like 2
  • Confused 1

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Meanwhile, the GDPS is very bullish from Nebraska through Iowa and then has another low dumping from Missouri to Michigan.  Also, the UK has gone back north and is bullish from NE through IA.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Every model vs GFS for here. Sadly I think GFS has the right idea with south shifts

Idk, it waaay over corrected south with the last storm that hit this region. 

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro hasn't changed too much... still several inches from Nebraska through northern Iowa.

Much of the snow from eastern KS through se IA is from the Sunday night system.  The Euro still wants to pop a new snow system from sw MO up through MI.

image.thumb.png.da1b0e8bf84c41ec0f0ed8413890d816.png

image.thumb.png.40d6535c1a96809b7fbbeb9db73cd044.png

  • Like 1
  • scream 1

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, centralweather44 said:

Just a matter of time before the euro jumps ship as well. This has Clinton’s name all over it. 

Lol probably 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Tom said:

I’d imagine that both Cascade and Devil’s Head should continue to be open, esp Cascade since it faces East and away from direct sun.  I have never skied there in March but does the suns higher angle effect the mountain this time of year?

Cascade holds up very well, I've been there on closing last year March 20th, they have enough trees and obstacles to keep a lot of the bad elements away from the snow. They let my Alpine Valley season pass work at Cascade for the last week or two last year. I even had a day it was overcast and in the 40s and the snow was good all day and into the night. The last day I was there it was sunny and warm, and by 6 it started to get crusty and one hour before close it was just crusty ice. Which is too bad because I wanted to make last chair of the season, but I was literally the only one there and I think everyone just wanted to go home lol.

I haven't been to Devil's Head yet, I was planning on getting a room there, boarding there the first day then going to Cascade the next day since they are like 20 minutes apart, but one of my buddies on the hill told me to stay away from Devil's Head when it's warm because it's facing south and get destroyed really quickly, turning into sticky slush.

Tyrol Basin does an extremely well job of holding up too, because it's not actually a hill, it's a basin so it's tucked out of the sun and a lot of the bad elements. They have crazy late season sales, $20 for a lift ticket on Tuesday and I think when they go to late season hours it's some ridiculously low price too.

Alpine Valley kind of screwed themselves for weather when they made the hill taller, it's the highest thing in the whole area and there's nothing on top of it. It's very common for them to lose the entire top of the hill. They are closed today, I assume they're desperately trying to push the base from the bottom of the hill to the top, but they are doing 2-10pm next week during the week then normal weekend hours. Which really sucks when it's warm because the snow there starts to melt in the afternoon, then the sun goes down and it turns into rutted up crust. But it needed that extra height because it's really not a big hill.

Wilmot is owned by Vail which is like the evil empire, they're going around making low ball offers to all the resorts in the Midwest, and then turning around and firing all the people who have worked at a family owned resort of decades, and completely screwing up snow making. They were closed part of the time of Christmas break because they didn't make enough snow. Vail really ruined it, I refuse to give them money. But I am doing Ski Patrol at AV so I get to talk to people who know their stuff, and AV isn't going to sell to Vail, ever. I think a lot of these family resorts won't sell now after what they did to Wilmot.

Granite Peak is planning on going into April, they are having a big party there the weekend of the 27th, I think I'm gonna go even if fuel costs are ridiculous.

It'd be nice to see this storm materialize for south central Wisconsin and hit those resorts. I imagine the base is solid ice at this point and there aren't many chances to make snow. Not that they really want to this late in the season, blowing snow cost a lot more money than you think it does. Add a zero if you think it cost less then $1,000 a night to make a decent size midwestern hill. AV has the best grooming equipment around and can handle bad weather the best, as long as they can keep the top of the hill covered.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

18z GFS is a great hit for my area. Going to keep expectations low, but the best chance all winter. What could go wrong?  😂

Looks better than 12z for sure

Also I feel obligated to post a map if we're talking about itgfs-deterministic-central-snow_48hr-7010800.thumb.png.95c988b0737457ebbf7cdd262b589197.png

  • Like 2

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

18z GFS is a great hit for my area. Going to keep expectations low, but the best chance all winter. What could go wrong?  😂

18z Euro also hits your area and pretty much all of NE…

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z UK is back south... hits southern Nebraska into sw IA, then sags into Kansas, and then moves east through Missouri.  I don't get anything.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GEFS is juiced along and south of I-80 in Nebraska. WxBell skips from 24 hour time frame to 4 days, otherwise 48 hour would be ideal lol. gfs-ensemble-all-avg-central-snow_96hr_inch-7000000.thumb.png.06bb31becdb7caac7c2ce1cef5c3dbe6.png

  • Like 3

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z Euro

60-84 hrs

image.thumb.png.5ef15aae790cff12725da34cad1c8d77.png

84-108 hrs

image.thumb.png.69349102caf15c4caada1528dce83e8e.png

108-132 hrs

image.thumb.png.c20bcab018b1537c50008ba9dc3088a1.png

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Winter Storm Watch just to my northwest so far. NWS Hastings morning disco talks about the storm, but afraid of being burned. I would bet they issue a watch this afternoon if noon models are favorable. However, they are an interesting office with their forecasts so who knows. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom changed the title to 3/9 - 3/12 Spring Storm
  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...