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3/9 - 3/12 Spring Storm


Tom

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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Haven’t seen this type of forecast this winter. 
 

50959B63-6264-4E0A-94E9-AE7BA601BFDD.png

Mother Nature says she was having some supply chain issues but is now going to make the deliveries for your area! Hopefully no last minute snags.  Good luck!

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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As usual we missed our chance this weekend.  🙁

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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31 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z Euro.  Little further south than previous runs, amounts have come down a few inches.  We'll see if this is also a trend or not in future runs.

12Z Euro 3 7.png

Thought that was 10:1 and then saw it was Kuchera 😬

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1" at LNK brings us all the way to 4.8" for the season, reports across town generally 1-2". I slept in until like 11 lol, but there was still around 1.5-2" outside of direct sunlight. It should be about completely gone by the end of the afternoon. It's always when there's a 30% chance of snow it overperforms, not when there's already snow accumulation forecasted 😂

Need 2.4" on Thursday to match the least snowiest season on record (7.2"). If that doesn't happen, there's a pretty good chance 2021-22 will take the top spot for the lowest season ever. 

Edit: whoops wrong thread

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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GEFS further south and weaker as well. Now 3.5" in Lincoln vs. 5" at 00z. Any further shifts and we're probably out of the game, 00z runs tonight are going to be scary. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-6978400.thumb.png.3489a1caff7f5113a64937bb8dc7a902.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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37 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

1" at LNK brings us all the way to 4.8" for the season, reports across town generally 1-2". I slept in until like 11 lol, but there was still around 1.5-2" outside of direct sunlight. It should be about completely gone by the end of the afternoon. It's always when there's a 30% chance of snow it overperforms, not when there's already snow accumulation forecasted 😂

Need 2.4" on Thursday to match the least snowiest season on record (7.2"). If that doesn't happen, there's a pretty good chance 2021-22 will take the top spot for the lowest season ever. 

Edit: whoops wrong thread

I don't mean to brag, but with our 2.8", we're up to 11.8" IMBY.😋

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I had to check it myself.  Not a great run of models today so far, except for the NAM.  This thing might have more surprises ahead.  

NAM has fooled me several times being north and wet, especially in the 2-3 day range. Speaking of the devil, 18z NAM is coming in slightly south and weaker. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Yawn. Looks like another 2-4" for Omaha.

The snow chances begin to slowly increase Wednesday afternoon,
but really get going Wednesday night, and linger through Thursday.
Models today have perhaps come into better agreement on the track
of the storm system, and have perhaps shifted just slightly
south. The evening commute should be OK Wednesday with flurries
mostly just beginning. The snow becomes moderate into the evening
and overnight and will definitely have an impact on the morning
commute Thursday with a few inches of snow on the ground at that
point. Winds during the event will be from the northeast gusting
up to 20 mph, so there could be a small chance of blowing an
drifting, but it could certainly be worse. Meanwhile, the snow
will end in northeast NE Thursday afternoon, and end along/south
of I80 early Thursday evening. Overall, the upcoming event feels
like a solid winter weather advisory with some travel impacts
expected. Our storm totals range from 2 to 6 inches, depending on
location, which matches well with both the 12z GEFS and EC
ensembles. The 25th/75th percentile ranges with the QPF we have
forecast will show 1 to 8 (with the highest amounts in southeast
NE). 8 inches seems like a bit of stretch to me, as even purely
NBM 75th percentile output still only shows amounts up to around
6.5 inches. The snow will be spread out over a 24 hour period so
that will help manage the impacts, despite what could be pretty
messy commute Thursday morning. 
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1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

GFS just shifted several hundred miles south.  Hard to trust that model right now.  It's had a very rough winter.  Hard to put much stock in it right now.  

I believe this system will push south with strong high pressure pushing in fr the North. It looks like it’s going to be moving south of 1-80 and between 1-70 at the moment 

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