OmahaSnowFan Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 When this goes south, it will make it that much easier to warm up again to spring like temps right away. Already a 20+ degree difference in temps over the new snow and where it misses this coming weekend. At this point, give me a blizzard or a big storm or just miss me and keep the spring temps around. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 The massive south jump only 60 hours out is just comical. 18z GEFS is another slashing of totals for Nebraska, looks good for KC. I hope it's wrong, but probably not with how this winter has gone. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 My NWS grid forecast. So 4-9” Wednesday/Wednesday night and more Thursday morning. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 As much as I'd really like to move onto true spring, my in-laws are reporting "big snow". Knowing the connections, I'm expecting I'm not done with flakes here. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 The lag time between model disaster and NWS forecast updates is always depressing. Of course there's still time for further model changes and corrections but 4-8" is starting to look very unlikely. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 The 18z Euro has shifted south again. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 18z Euro Control Mean 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said: The lag time between model disaster and NWS forecast updates is always depressing. Of course there's still time for further model changes and corrections but 4-8" is starting to look very unlikely. That map doesn’t even match their forecast discussion from this afternoon where they basically said 2-6” 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 43 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The 18z Euro has shifted south again. Just brutal... relieved that we somehow got to double digit snowfall for the season last night - it's time to stick a fork in Winter here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 0z GFS has a I-70 snowstorm targeting KC. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 I’m not surprised. I’ll now be rooting for a miss and an all time record season low of snow. Let this god forsaken winter end already. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 The one thing the models have done an amazing job at this year is the consistent shift as we near the event. We have seen it all year. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 Ukie score a win? One could only hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 hours ago, jcwxguy said: Ukie score a win? One could only hope 0z Euro sorta agrees with the UKIE...at this point, another minimal stat padder is prob in the works around here unless this just craps out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 6z models this morning still showing accumulating snow along the I-70 corridor with the heaviest snow around KC. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 EAX first guess at accumulations 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 Looks about right. As I said this past weekend, been doing this all winter, no reason it won’t target KC this time. Congrats to you guys down there this year. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 06z Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 09Z SREF (SREF performed very well with last system, destroyed other guidance) with a big jump N and E from 03Z 03Z - 09Z- 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 6z Euro still rather weak and further north than the GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 36 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: 09Z SREF (SREF performed very well with last system, destroyed other guidance) with a big jump N and E from 03Z 03Z - 09Z- NWS Hastings Disco mentioned a possible slight shift north. We'll see which model is correct. but the most recent 00Z EPS (ECMWF Ensemble Mean) has come back north again just a hair so we might be starting to narrow in on the expected snow band location. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 19 minutes ago, Clinton said: 6z Euro still rather weak and further north than the GFS Going to be a tough call for local NWS offices for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 12Z NWS Blend of Models 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 52 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Going to be a tough call for local NWS offices for sure. All year it's been like this, no agreement even right up to the event. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 NAM north. NE may finally get a decent storm. Bring in spring down here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 12Z NAM has come north. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 12Z 3km NAM has also come north. This only goes to 60 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 FV3 looks to be in agreement with the NAM 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 12Z HRW WRF-NSSL. This is only through 48 hours, snow is ongoing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: FV3 looks to be in agreement with the NAM Looks very similar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 Models were north, then went south, now coming back north. The event is tomorrow into Thursday, so you would think there would be a consensus with this evening's models. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 12Z GFS sticking to it's guns. Was the first to go south and then all the other models followed it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: 12Z GFS sticking to it's guns. Was the first to go south and then all the other models followed it. The next 24 hours will be if the other models follow the GFS or if the GFS will cave to the more northern track. The GFS has been pretty good within 48 hours the last 5 storms we had in the kc area 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 The gfs has sucked around here the past couple of storms so we shall see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 12z GFS, CMC and GEFS 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 Eastern Nebraskans are jumping off the bridge too early. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z GFS, CMC and GEFS Interesting. The shorter term models have mostly come north, and these models have remained south. Will want to see what the Euro does, as NWS Hastings had mentioned a north bump in their morning disco. By later tonight, the shorter term models are what we should be looking at anyway, north or south. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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