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3/9 - 3/12 Spring Storm


Tom

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When this goes south, it will make it that much easier to warm up again to spring like temps right away. Already a 20+ degree difference in temps over the new snow and where it misses this coming weekend.

At this point, give me a blizzard or a big storm or just miss me and keep the spring temps around.

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The massive south jump only 60 hours out is just comical. 18z GEFS is another slashing of totals for Nebraska, looks good for KC. I hope it's wrong, but probably not with how this winter has gone. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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As much as I'd really like to move onto true spring, my in-laws are reporting "big snow". Knowing the connections, I'm expecting I'm not done with flakes here.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The lag time between model disaster and NWS forecast updates is always depressing. Of course there's still time for further model changes and corrections but 4-8" is starting to look very unlikely. 

Tab2FileL.thumb.png.d441ff0e15b6af0494581fa65970bcad.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

The lag time between model disaster and NWS forecast updates is always depressing. Of course there's still time for further model changes and corrections but 4-8" is starting to look very unlikely. 

Tab2FileL.thumb.png.d441ff0e15b6af0494581fa65970bcad.png

That map doesn’t even match their forecast discussion from this afternoon where they basically said 2-6” 

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2 hours ago, jcwxguy said:

Ukie score a win? One could only hope

image.thumb.png.948305f9af50676a0e3c41a2287b5002.png

 

0z Euro sorta agrees with the UKIE...at this point, another minimal stat padder is prob in the works around here unless this just craps out.

1.png

 

2.png

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09Z SREF (SREF performed very well with last system, destroyed other guidance) with a big jump N and E from 03Z

03Z -

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png09Z-sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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36 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

09Z SREF (SREF performed very well with last system, destroyed other guidance) with a big jump N and E from 03Z

03Z -

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png09Z-sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png

NWS Hastings Disco mentioned a possible slight shift north.  We'll see which model is correct.

but the most recent 00Z EPS (ECMWF Ensemble Mean) has
come back north again just a hair so we might be starting to
narrow in on the expected snow band location.
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3 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

12Z GFS sticking to it's guns. Was the first to go south and then all the other models followed it.

The next 24 hours will be if the other models follow the GFS or if the GFS will cave to the more northern track. The GFS has been pretty good within 48 hours the last 5 storms we had in the kc area 

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8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS, CMC and GEFS

snku_acc.us_c.png

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

Interesting.  The shorter term models have mostly come north, and these models have remained south.  Will want to see what the Euro does, as NWS Hastings had mentioned a north bump in their morning disco.  By later tonight, the shorter term models are what we should be looking at anyway, north or south.

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