jcwxguy Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 I'm my experience, the short term models have a north bias in their long range 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 29 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Interesting. The shorter term models have mostly come north, and these models have remained south. Will want to see what the Euro does, as NWS Hastings had mentioned a north bump in their morning disco. By later tonight, the shorter term models are what we should be looking at anyway, north or south. I hope it goes north I just need a little bit of moisture you guys need the moisture bad and I'm ready for some warmer weather and thunderstorms. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 12 minutes ago, Clinton said: I hope it goes north I just need a little bit of moisture you guys need the moisture bad and I'm ready for some warmer weather and thunderstorms. Very nice of you to say. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 53 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z GFS, CMC and GEFS Bring out the snow blowers! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 33 minutes ago, Clinton said: I hope it goes north I just need a little bit of moisture you guys need the moisture bad and I'm ready for some warmer weather and thunderstorms. I'm with ya. I'm ready for spring too. These few warm teases we've had plus lack of snowfall have got me thinking spring and t-storms. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 Just now, james1976 said: I'm with ya. I'm ready for spring too. These few warm teases we've had plus lack of snowfall have got me thinking spring and t-storms. Spring is tornado season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 12Z Euro. About the same location, just getting weaker by the run. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 For what it's worth, the 15Z SREF model is north from the 09Z run which was north of 03Z. Just getting done with lunch, so can't post any maps for awhile. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 I got it-- SREF looking like an I-80 and South special- Newest run-15z 09Z - 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: I got it-- SREF looking like an I-80 and South special- Newest run-15z 09Z - That is way way north of all other guidance. I expect a drastic shift south on its next run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: That is way way north of all other guidance. I expect a drastic shift south on its next run. I would agree most times other than SREF nailed last event pretty good as an over achiever compared to other guidance. Likely too far north, but time will tell. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 27 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: I got it-- SREF looking like an I-80 and South special- Newest run-15z 09Z - Thanks for posting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 15Z RAP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 18z HRRR 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 18z NWS Blend 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 18z NAM. Another slight bump north. Hello Lincoln and Omaha. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 On 3/6/2022 at 9:38 PM, The Snowman said: I don't know, I'm feeling unusually good about this one for Omaha. Gut feeling, nothing based on data or whatnot. We will see. Clearly I need a gut check. Not the best sign when I'm forced to cling to the NAM & hi-res peanut gallery for hopes of >4" of snow, but gosh darn it that's what I'll do! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 18z 3km NAM. Maybe a very slight shift south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 ^^ maybe for NEB. But in Iowa -- N and E shift continues. Tis the season for a North shift to occur more and more- just dry air that needs to be overcome. 2 weeks from now- this would be in C to N.MN. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 LNK is sitting pretty if you look at the short range models and ignore the globals. It's actually surprising how the NAM, RAP, and HRRR seem to be in agreement. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: LNK is sitting pretty if you look at the short range models and ignore the globals. It's actually surprising how the NAM, RAP, and HRRR seem to be in agreement. Almost exact placement. I’d feel better if global came north. It is like the big dogs vs. the little guys. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 NAM has been steadfast with its track for most of its model runs so you have to give it some credence. Even gives us farther north/east some decent snows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 Where I'm supposed to work Thursday. If they get half the max, I won't be able to work 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 Watches coming out ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Moderate to Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and central, north central, northeast, northwest and west central Missouri. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: For KC, the global models have performed better than the hi res models this year. I can remember specifically being very upset during the early February snows here when the hi-res models had KC getting hammered up almost until the storm started, and then the heaviest stuff went south of us. The global models were on target with that. With our biggest snow, on 2/17, at 48 hours out, the EURO was way too far south, the NAM and HRR were too far north, the Canadians were south and the GFS was about right. Interestingly, the ICON did a great job with that storm, accurately predicting the sharp cutoff of snow between KC and St. Joe. UKIE did well too for the same reason. Having said all of that, you never know which model's going to be right for any given storm at any given location. Well we know if it's going to snow it will happen on a Thursday. Seems like every snow of any significance has hit on a Thursday this winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 18z ICON with some hefty amount between Topeka and KC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 18z GFS doesn’t want to come north. Well I guess we just watch the radar tomorrow and Thursday and see what model or models performs best. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 The differences in placement in modeling is astounding this close to an event. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 21 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z ICON with some hefty amount between Topeka and KC Do you have the GFS 18z? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 Just now, winterfreak said: The differences in placement in modeling is astounding this close. The models this season just love being so different and spread out so close to the event. Luckily the GFS has been pretty reliable compared to the other models but this time tomorrow we will see who will be the winner 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: Do you have the GFS 18z? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 18z GEFS 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 49 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Here’s the afternoon update. That image was from this morning. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 The GFS is NOT a good model people. It's busted horribly multiple times this winter. Not to be trusted. Srefs are the way to go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said: The GFS is NOT a good model people. It's busted horribly multiple times this winter. Not to be trusted. Serfs are the way to go The gem is pretty similar to GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 New Sref is unchanged. I80 special. I would expect this to be a county or two too far North, but not much more than that. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 18z Euro has caved to the GFS and Canadian 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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